IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/arx/papers/2104.12975.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

An Empirical Assessment of Characteristics and Optimal Portfolios

Author

Listed:
  • Christopher G. Lamoureux
  • Huacheng Zhang

Abstract

We analyze characteristics' joint predictive information through the lens of out-of-sample power utility functions. Linking weights to characteristics to form optimal portfolios suffers from estimation error which we mitigate by maximizing an in-sample loss function that is more concave than the utility function. While no single characteristic can be used to enhance utility by all investors, conditioning on momentum, size, and residual volatility produces portfolios with significantly higher certainty equivalents than benchmarks for all investors. Characteristic complementarities produce the benefits, for example momentum mitigates overfitting inherent in other characteristics. Optimal portfolios' returns lie largely outside the span of traditional factors.

Suggested Citation

  • Christopher G. Lamoureux & Huacheng Zhang, 2021. "An Empirical Assessment of Characteristics and Optimal Portfolios," Papers 2104.12975, arXiv.org, revised Feb 2024.
  • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:2104.12975
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://arxiv.org/pdf/2104.12975
    File Function: Latest version
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Barber, Brad M & Lyon, John D, 1997. "Firm Size, Book-to-Market Ratio, and Security Returns: A Holdout Sample of Financial Firms," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 52(2), pages 875-883, June.
    2. Lewellen, Jonathan, 2015. "The Cross-section of Expected Stock Returns," Critical Finance Review, now publishers, vol. 4(1), pages 1-44, June.
    3. R. David Mclean & Jeffrey Pontiff, 2016. "Does Academic Research Destroy Stock Return Predictability?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 71(1), pages 5-32, February.
    4. Juhani T Linnainmaa & Michael R Roberts, 2018. "The History of the Cross-Section of Stock Returns," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 31(7), pages 2606-2649.
    5. Green, Richard C & Hollifield, Burton, 1992. "When Will Mean-Variance Efficient Portfolios Be Well Diversified?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 47(5), pages 1785-1809, December.
    6. Best, Michael J & Grauer, Robert R, 1991. "On the Sensitivity of Mean-Variance-Efficient Portfolios to Changes in Asset Means: Some Analytical and Computational Results," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 4(2), pages 315-342.
    7. Lewellen, Jonathan & Nagel, Stefan & Shanken, Jay, 2010. "A skeptical appraisal of asset pricing tests," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 96(2), pages 175-194, May.
    8. Victor DeMiguel & Lorenzo Garlappi & Raman Uppal, 2009. "Optimal Versus Naive Diversification: How Inefficient is the 1-N Portfolio Strategy?," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 22(5), pages 1915-1953, May.
    9. Guanhao Feng & Stefano Giglio & Dacheng Xiu, 2020. "Taming the Factor Zoo: A Test of New Factors," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 75(3), pages 1327-1370, June.
    10. Jonathan Ingersoll & Ivo Welch, 2007. "Portfolio Performance Manipulation and Manipulation-proof Performance Measures," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 20(5), pages 1503-1546, 2007 17.
    11. Kewei Hou & Chen Xue & Lu Zhang, 2020. "Replicating Anomalies," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 33(5), pages 2019-2133.
    12. Andrew Ang & Robert J. Hodrick & Yuhang Xing & Xiaoyan Zhang, 2006. "The Cross‐Section of Volatility and Expected Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 61(1), pages 259-299, February.
    13. MacKinlay, A Craig & Pastor, Lubos, 2000. "Asset Pricing Models: Implications for Expected Returns and Portfolio Selection," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 13(4), pages 883-916.
    14. Barroso, Pedro & Santa-Clara, Pedro, 2015. "Momentum has its moments," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 116(1), pages 111-120.
    15. Ravi Jagannathan & Tongshu Ma, 2003. "Risk Reduction in Large Portfolios: Why Imposing the Wrong Constraints Helps," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 58(4), pages 1651-1683, August.
    16. Joachim Freyberger & Andreas Neuhierl & Michael Weber, 2020. "Dissecting Characteristics Nonparametrically," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 33(5), pages 2326-2377.
    17. Pastor, Lubos & Stambaugh, Robert F., 2000. "Comparing asset pricing models: an investment perspective," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(3), pages 335-381, June.
    18. Mark Broadie & Mikhail Chernov & Michael Johannes, 2009. "Understanding Index Option Returns," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 22(11), pages 4493-4529, November.
    19. Martin, Ian W.R. & Nagel, Stefan, 2022. "Market efficiency in the age of big data," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 145(1), pages 154-177.
    20. Liu, Jianan & Stambaugh, Robert F. & Yuan, Yu, 2018. "Absolving beta of volatility’s effects," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 128(1), pages 1-15.
    21. Michael W. Brandt & Pedro Santa-Clara & Rossen Valkanov, 2009. "Parametric Portfolio Policies: Exploiting Characteristics in the Cross-Section of Equity Returns," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 22(9), pages 3411-3447, September.
    22. Clifford S. Asness & Tobias J. Moskowitz & Lasse Heje Pedersen, 2013. "Value and Momentum Everywhere," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 68(3), pages 929-985, June.
    23. Yacine AÏT‐SAHALI & Michael W. Brandt, 2001. "Variable Selection for Portfolio Choice," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 56(4), pages 1297-1351, August.
    24. Boguth, Oliver & Carlson, Murray & Fisher, Adlai & Simutin, Mikhail, 2011. "Conditional risk and performance evaluation: Volatility timing, overconditioning, and new estimates of momentum alphas," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 102(2), pages 363-389.
    25. Joachim Freyberger & Andreas Neuhierl & Michael Weber & Andrew KarolyiEditor, 2020. "Dissecting Characteristics Nonparametrically," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 33(5), pages 2326-2377.
    26. Wayne E. Ferson, 2013. "Ruminations on Investment Performance Measurement," European Financial Management, European Financial Management Association, vol. 19(1), pages 4-13, January.
    27. Kan, Raymond & Zhou, Guofu, 2007. "Optimal Portfolio Choice with Parameter Uncertainty," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 42(3), pages 621-656, September.
    28. Serhiy Kozak & Stefan Nagel & Shrihari Santosh, 2018. "Interpreting Factor Models," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 73(3), pages 1183-1223, June.
    29. Victor DeMiguel & Alberto Martín-Utrera & Francisco J Nogales & Raman Uppal, 2020. "A Transaction-Cost Perspective on the Multitude of Firm Characteristics," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 33(5), pages 2180-2222.
    30. Campbell R. Harvey, 2017. "Presidential Address: The Scientific Outlook in Financial Economics," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 72(4), pages 1399-1440, August.
    31. Ravi Jagannathan & Tongshu Ma, 2003. "Risk Reduction in Large Portfolios: Why Imposing the Wrong Constraints Helps," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 58(4), pages 1651-1684, August.
    32. Robert Tibshirani, 2011. "Regression shrinkage and selection via the lasso: a retrospective," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series B, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 73(3), pages 273-282, June.
    33. Kim, Tae-Hwan & White, Halbert, 2003. "On More Robust Estimation of Skewness and Kurtosis: Simulation and Application to the S&P500 Index," University of California at San Diego, Economics Working Paper Series qt7b52v07p, Department of Economics, UC San Diego.
    34. Campbell R. Harvey & Akhtar Siddique, 2000. "Conditional Skewness in Asset Pricing Tests," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 55(3), pages 1263-1295, June.
    35. Jeremiah Green & John R. M. Hand & X. Frank Zhang, 2017. "The Characteristics that Provide Independent Information about Average U.S. Monthly Stock Returns," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 30(12), pages 4389-4436.
    36. Kadan, Ohad & Liu, Fang, 2014. "Performance evaluation with high moments and disaster risk," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 113(1), pages 131-155.
    37. Victor DeMiguel & Alberto Martín-Utrera & Francisco J Nogales & Raman Uppal & Andrew KarolyiEditor, 2020. "A Transaction-Cost Perspective on the Multitude of Firm Characteristics," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 33(5), pages 2180-2222.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Cederburg, Scott & O’Doherty, Michael S. & Wang, Feifei & Yan, Xuemin (Sterling), 2020. "On the performance of volatility-managed portfolios," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 138(1), pages 95-117.
    2. Rubesam, Alexandre, 2022. "Machine learning portfolios with equal risk contributions: Evidence from the Brazilian market," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 51(PB).
    3. Thomas Conlon & John Cotter & Iason Kynigakis, 2021. "Machine Learning and Factor-Based Portfolio Optimization," Papers 2107.13866, arXiv.org.
    4. DeMiguel, Victor & Martin-Utrera, Alberto & Nogales, Francisco J. & Uppal, Raman, 2017. "A Portfolio Perspective on the Multitude of Firm Characteristics," CEPR Discussion Papers 12417, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    5. Chinco, Alex & Neuhierl, Andreas & Weber, Michael, 2021. "Estimating the anomaly base rate," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 140(1), pages 101-126.
    6. Constantinos Kardaras & Hyeng Keun Koo & Johannes Ruf, 2022. "Estimation of growth in fund models," Papers 2208.02573, arXiv.org.
    7. Cakici, Nusret & Zaremba, Adam & Bianchi, Robert J. & Pham, Nga, 2021. "False discoveries in the anomaly research: New insights from the Stock Exchange of Melbourne (1927–1987)," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 70(C).
    8. Smith, Simon C., 2022. "Time-variation, multiple testing, and the factor zoo," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 84(C).
    9. Stadtmüller, Immo & Auer, Benjamin R. & Schuhmacher, Frank, 2022. "On the benefits of active stock selection strategies for diversified investors," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 85(C), pages 342-354.
    10. Adam Zaremba & Jacob Koby Shemer, 2018. "Price-Based Investment Strategies," Springer Books, Springer, number 978-3-319-91530-2, September.
    11. Kozak, Serhiy & Nagel, Stefan & Santosh, Shrihari, 2020. "Shrinking the cross-section," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 135(2), pages 271-292.
    12. Doron Avramov & Si Cheng & Lior Metzker, 2023. "Machine Learning vs. Economic Restrictions: Evidence from Stock Return Predictability," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 69(5), pages 2587-2619, May.
    13. Ni, Xuanming & Zheng, Tiantian & Zhao, Huimin & Zhu, Shushang, 2023. "High-dimensional portfolio optimization based on tree-structured factor model," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 81(C).
    14. Doron Avramov & Si Cheng & Lior Metzker & Stefan Voigt, 2023. "Integrating Factor Models," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 78(3), pages 1593-1646, June.
    15. De Nard, Gianluca & Zhao, Zhao, 2022. "A large-dimensional test for cross-sectional anomalies:Efficient sorting revisited," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 654-676.
    16. Johannes Bock, 2018. "An updated review of (sub-)optimal diversification models," Papers 1811.08255, arXiv.org.
    17. De Nard, Gianluca & Zhao, Zhao, 2023. "Using, taming or avoiding the factor zoo? A double-shrinkage estimator for covariance matrices," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 23-35.
    18. Ahmed, Shamim & Bu, Ziwen & Symeonidis, Lazaros & Tsvetanov, Daniel, 2023. "Which factor model? A systematic return covariation perspective," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 136(C).
    19. Le, Trung H., 2021. "International portfolio allocation: The role of conditional higher moments," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 33-57.
    20. Wang, Jianqiu & Wu, Ke & Tong, Guoshi & Chen, Dongxu, 2023. "Nonlinearity in the cross-section of stock returns: Evidence from China," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 85(C), pages 174-205.

    More about this item

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:arx:papers:2104.12975. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: arXiv administrators (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://arxiv.org/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.