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Asset Pricing Models: Implications for Expected Returns and Portfolio Selection

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Author Info
A. Craig MacKinlay
Lubos Pastor

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Abstract

Implications of factor-based asset pricing models for estimation of expected returns and for portfolio selection are investigated. In the presence of model mispricing due to a missing risk factor, the mispricing and the residual covariance matrix are linked together. Imposing a strong form of this link leads to expected return estimates that are more precise and more stable over time than unrestricted estimates. Optimal portfolio weights that incorporate the link when no factors are observable are proportional to expected return estimates, effectively using an identity matrix as a covariance matrix. The resulting portfolios perform well both in simulations and in out-of-sample comparisons.

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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 7162.

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Date of creation: Jun 1999
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Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:7162

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G1 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
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  2. Jorion, Philippe, 1986. "Bayes-Stein Estimation for Portfolio Analysis," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 21(03), pages 279-292, September. [Downloadable!]
  3. Jorion, Philippe, 1991. "Bayesian and CAPM estimators of the means: Implications for portfolio selection," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 15(3), pages 717-727, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Grinblatt, Mark & Titman, Sheridan, 1987. "The Relation between Mean-Variance Efficiency and Arbitrage Pricing," Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 60(1), pages 97-112, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  7. Huberman, Gur & Kandel, Shmuel & Stambaugh, Robert F, 1987. " Mimicking Portfolios and Exact Arbitrage Pricing," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 42(1), pages 1-9, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  9. Fama, Eugene F. & French, Kenneth R., 1993. "Common risk factors in the returns on stocks and bonds," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 3-56, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  16. Connor, Gregory & Korajczyk, Robert A., 1986. "Performance measurement with the arbitrage pricing theory : A new framework for analysis," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 15(3), pages 373-394, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Cesare Robotti, 2003. "Dynamic strategies, asset pricing models, and the out-of-sample performance of the tangency portfolio," Working Paper 2003-6, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta. [Downloadable!]
  2. Wolfgang Schmid & Taras Zabolotskyy, 2008. "On the existence of unbiased estimators for the portfolio weights obtained by maximizing the Sharpe ratio," AStA Advances in Statistical Analysis, Springer, vol. 92(1), pages 29-34, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Taras Bodnar & Wolfgang Schmid & Taras Zabolotskyy, 2009. "Statistical inference of the efficient frontier for dependent asset returns," Statistical Papers, Springer, vol. 50(3), pages 593-604, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Lubos Pastor & Robert F. Stambaugh, 1999. "Comparing Asset Pricing Models: An Investment Perspective," NBER Working Papers 7284, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  5. Edward J. Green & Jose A. Lopez & Zhenyu Wang, 2001. "The Federal Reserve banks' imputed cost of equity capital," Working Papers in Applied Economic Theory 2001-01, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco. [Downloadable!]
  6. Edward J. Green & Jose A. Lopez & Zhenyu Wang, 2003. "Formulating the imputed cost of equity capital for priced services at Federal Reserve banks," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, issue Sep, pages 55-81. [Downloadable!]
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