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Asset Pricing Models: Implications for Expected Returns and Portfolio Selection

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Author Info
MacKinlay, A Craig
Pastor, Lubos

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Abstract

When a risk factor is missing from an asset pricing model, the resulting mispricing is embedded within the residual covariance matrix. Exploiting this phenomenon leads to expected return estimates that are more stable and precise than estimates delivered by standard methods. Portfolio selection can also be improved. At an extreme, optimal portfolio weights are proportional to expected returns when no factors are observable. We find that such portfolios perform well in simulations and in out-of-sample comparisons. Article published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Society for Financial Studies in its journal, The Review of Financial Studies.

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Publisher Info
Article provided by Oxford University Press for Society for Financial Studies in its journal Review of Financial Studies.

Volume (Year): 13 (2000)
Issue (Month): 4 ()
Pages: 883-916
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Handle: RePEc:oup:rfinst:v:13:y:2000:i:4:p:883-916

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Daniel, Kent & Titman, Sheridan, 1997. " Evidence on the Characteristics of Cross Sectional Variation in Stock Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 52(1), pages 1-33, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  2. Fama, Eugene F. & French, Kenneth R., 1993. "Common risk factors in the returns on stocks and bonds," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 3-56, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Lakonishok, Josef & Shleifer, Andrei & Vishny, Robert W, 1994. " Contrarian Investment, Extrapolation, and Risk," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 49(5), pages 1541-78, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  4. Jorion, Philippe, 1986. "Bayes-Stein Estimation for Portfolio Analysis," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 21(03), pages 279-292, September. [Downloadable!]
  5. Jorion, Philippe, 1991. "Bayesian and CAPM estimators of the means: Implications for portfolio selection," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 15(3), pages 717-727, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Grinblatt, Mark & Titman, Sheridan, 1987. "The Relation between Mean-Variance Efficiency and Arbitrage Pricing," Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 60(1), pages 97-112, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Huberman, Gur & Kandel, Shmuel, 1987. " Mean-Variance Spanning," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 42(4), pages 873-88, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Dickinson, J. P., 1974. "The Reliability of Estimation Procedures in Portfolio Analysis," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 9(03), pages 447-462, June. [Downloadable!]
  9. repec:fth:pennfi:72 is not listed on IDEAS
  10. Gibbons, Michael R & Ross, Stephen A & Shanken, Jay, 1989. "A Test of the Efficiency of a Given Portfolio," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(5), pages 1121-52, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  11. Roll, Richard & Ross, Stephen A, 1980. " An Empirical Investigation of the Arbitrage Pricing Theory," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 35(5), pages 1073-1103, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  12. Lubos Pástor & Robert F. Stambaugh, 1999. "Costs of Equity Capital and Model Mispricing," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 54(1), pages 67-121, 02. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  13. Ross, Stephen A., 1976. "The arbitrage theory of capital asset pricing," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 13(3), pages 341-360, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  14. Green, Richard C & Hollifield, Burton, 1992. " When Will Mean-Variance Efficient Portfolios Be Well Diversified?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 47(5), pages 1785-809, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  15. Connor, Gregory & Korajczyk, Robert A., 1986. "Performance measurement with the arbitrage pricing theory : A new framework for analysis," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 15(3), pages 373-394, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  16. Huberman, Gur & Kandel, Shmuel & Stambaugh, Robert F, 1987. " Mimicking Portfolios and Exact Arbitrage Pricing," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 42(1), pages 1-9, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Edward J. Green & Jose A. Lopez & Zhenyu Wang, 2001. "The Federal Reserve banks' imputed cost of equity capital," Working Papers in Applied Economic Theory 2001-01, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco. [Downloadable!]
  2. Cesare Robotti, 2003. "Dynamic strategies, asset pricing models, and the out-of-sample performance of the tangency portfolio," Working Paper 2003-6, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta. [Downloadable!]
  3. Wolfgang Schmid & Taras Zabolotskyy, 2008. "On the existence of unbiased estimators for the portfolio weights obtained by maximizing the Sharpe ratio," AStA Advances in Statistical Analysis, Springer, vol. 92(1), pages 29-34, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Lubos Pastor & Robert F. Stambaugh, . "Comparing Asset Pricing Models: An Investment Perspective," Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research Working Papers 16-99, Wharton School Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  5. Edward J. Green & Jose A. Lopez & Zhenyu Wang, 2003. "Formulating the imputed cost of equity capital for priced services at Federal Reserve banks," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, issue Sep, pages 55-81. [Downloadable!]
  6. Taras Bodnar & Wolfgang Schmid & Taras Zabolotskyy, 2009. "Statistical inference of the efficient frontier for dependent asset returns," Statistical Papers, Springer, vol. 50(3), pages 593-604, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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