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Day-ahead electricity price prediction applying hybrid models of LSTM-based deep learning methods and feature selection algorithms under consideration of market coupling

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  • Wei Li
  • Denis Mike Becker

Abstract

The availability of accurate day-ahead electricity price forecasts is pivotal for electricity market participants. In the context of trade liberalisation and market harmonisation in the European markets, accurate price forecasting becomes difficult for electricity market participants to obtain because electricity forecasting requires the consideration of features from ever-growing coupling markets. This study provides a method of exploring the influence of market coupling on electricity price prediction. We apply state-of-the-art long short-term memory (LSTM) deep neural networks combined with feature selection algorithms for electricity price prediction under the consideration of market coupling. LSTM models have a good performance in handling nonlinear and complex problems and processing time series data. In our empirical study of the Nordic market, the proposed models obtain considerably accurate results. The results show that feature selection is essential to achieving accurate prediction, and features from integrated markets have an impact on prediction. The feature importance analysis implies that the German market has a salient role in the price generation of Nord Pool.

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  • Wei Li & Denis Mike Becker, 2021. "Day-ahead electricity price prediction applying hybrid models of LSTM-based deep learning methods and feature selection algorithms under consideration of market coupling," Papers 2101.05249, arXiv.org, revised Jul 2021.
    • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:2101.05249
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    1. Mukund Sundararajan & Amir Najmi, 2019. "The many Shapley values for model explanation," Papers 1908.08474, arXiv.org, revised Feb 2020.
    2. Grzegorz Marcjasz & Jesus Lago & Rafa{l} Weron, 2020. "Neural networks in day-ahead electricity price forecasting: Single vs. multiple outputs," Papers 2008.08006, arXiv.org.
    3. Rafal Weron, 2006. "Modeling and Forecasting Electricity Loads and Prices: A Statistical Approach," HSC Books, Hugo Steinhaus Center, Wroclaw University of Technology, number hsbook0601.
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    Cited by:

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    4. Olivares, Kin G. & Challu, Cristian & Marcjasz, Grzegorz & Weron, Rafał & Dubrawski, Artur, 2023. "Neural basis expansion analysis with exogenous variables: Forecasting electricity prices with NBEATSx," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 39(2), pages 884-900.
    5. Sergio Cantillo-Luna & Ricardo Moreno-Chuquen & Jesus Lopez-Sotelo & David Celeita, 2023. "An Intra-Day Electricity Price Forecasting Based on a Probabilistic Transformer Neural Network Architecture," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(19), pages 1-24, September.
    6. Meng, Anbo & Wang, Peng & Zhai, Guangsong & Zeng, Cong & Chen, Shun & Yang, Xiaoyi & Yin, Hao, 2022. "Electricity price forecasting with high penetration of renewable energy using attention-based LSTM network trained by crisscross optimization," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 254(PA).
    7. Ciaran O'Connor & Joseph Collins & Steven Prestwich & Andrea Visentin, 2024. "Electricity Price Forecasting in the Irish Balancing Market," Papers 2402.06714, arXiv.org.
    8. Tovar Rosas, Mario A. & Pérez, Miguel Robles & Martínez Pérez, E. Rafael, 2022. "Itineraries for charging and discharging a BESS using energy predictions based on a CNN-LSTM neural network model in BCS, Mexico," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 188(C), pages 1141-1165.
    9. Schneider, Nicolas & Strielkowski, Wadim, 2023. "Modelling the unit root properties of electricity data—A general note on time-domain applications," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 618(C).
    10. Shi, Tao & Li, Chongyang & Zhang, Wei & Zhang, Yi, 2023. "Forecasting on metal resource spot settlement price: New evidence from the machine learning model," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 81(C).
    11. Wei Li & Wolfgang Karl Hardle & Stefan Lessmann, 2022. "A Data-driven Case-based Reasoning in Bankruptcy Prediction," Papers 2211.00921, arXiv.org.
    12. Cheng Zhang & Nilam Nur Amir Sjarif & Roslina Ibrahim, 2023. "Deep learning models for price forecasting of financial time series: A review of recent advancements: 2020-2022," Papers 2305.04811, arXiv.org, revised Sep 2023.
    13. Dounia El Bourakadi & Hiba Ramadan & Ali Yahyaouy & Jaouad Boumhidi, 2023. "A robust energy management approach in two-steps ahead using deep learning BiLSTM prediction model and type-2 fuzzy decision-making controller," Fuzzy Optimization and Decision Making, Springer, vol. 22(4), pages 645-667, December.
    14. Xiong, Xiaoping & Qing, Guohua, 2023. "A hybrid day-ahead electricity price forecasting framework based on time series," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 264(C).
    15. Halužan, Marko & Verbič, Miroslav & Zorić, Jelena, 2022. "An integrated model for electricity market coupling simulations: Evidence from the European power market crossroad," Utilities Policy, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).
    16. Sharma, Abhishek & Jain, Sachin Kumar, 2022. "A novel seasonal segmentation approach for day-ahead load forecasting," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 257(C).
    17. Fang Guo & Shangyun Deng & Weijia Zheng & An Wen & Jinfeng Du & Guangshan Huang & Ruiyang Wang, 2022. "Short-Term Electricity Price Forecasting Based on the Two-Layer VMD Decomposition Technique and SSA-LSTM," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(22), pages 1-20, November.
    18. Haokun Su & Xiangang Peng & Hanyu Liu & Huan Quan & Kaitong Wu & Zhiwen Chen, 2022. "Multi-Step-Ahead Electricity Price Forecasting Based on Temporal Graph Convolutional Network," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 10(14), pages 1-16, July.
    19. Gonçalves, Rui & Ribeiro, Vitor Miguel & Pereira, Fernando Lobo, 2023. "Variable Split Convolutional Attention: A novel Deep Learning model applied to the household electric power consumption," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 274(C).
    20. Kılıç Depren, Serpil & Kartal, Mustafa Tevfik & Ertuğrul, Hasan Murat & Depren, Özer, 2022. "The role of data frequency and method selection in electricity price estimation: Comparative evidence from Turkey in pre-pandemic and pandemic periods," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 186(C), pages 217-225.
    21. Shu-Chu Liu & Quan-Ying Jian & Hsien-Yin Wen & Chih-Hung Chung, 2022. "A Crop Harvest Time Prediction Model for Better Sustainability, Integrating Feature Selection and Artificial Intelligence Methods," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(21), pages 1-13, October.
    22. Hakan Acaroğlu & Fausto Pedro García Márquez, 2021. "Comprehensive Review on Electricity Market Price and Load Forecasting Based on Wind Energy," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(22), pages 1-23, November.

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