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Portfolios and risk premia for the long run

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  • Paolo Guasoni
  • Scott Robertson
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    Abstract

    This paper develops a method to derive optimal portfolios and risk premia explicitly in a general diffusion model for an investor with power utility and a long horizon. The market has several risky assets and is potentially incomplete. Investment opportunities are driven by, and partially correlated with, state variables which follow an autonomous diffusion. The framework nests models of stochastic interest rates, return predictability, stochastic volatility and correlation risk. In models with several assets and a single state variable, long-run portfolios and risk premia admit explicit formulas up the solution of an ordinary differential equation which characterizes the principal eigenvalue of an elliptic operator. Multiple state variables lead to a quasilinear partial differential equation which is solvable for many models of interest. The paper derives the long-run optimal portfolio and the long-run optimal pricing measures depending on relative risk aversion, as well as their finite-horizon performance.

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    File URL: http://arxiv.org/pdf/1203.1399
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    Bibliographic Info

    Paper provided by arXiv.org in its series Papers with number 1203.1399.

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    Date of creation: Mar 2012
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    Publication status: Published in Annals of Applied Probability 2012, Vol. 22, No. 1, 239-284
    Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:1203.1399

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    Web page: http://arxiv.org/

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    1. Hua He and Neil D. Pearson., 1989. "Consumption and Portfolio Policies with Incomplete Markets and Short-Sale Constraints: The Finite Dimensional Case," Research Program in Finance Working Papers RPF-189, University of California at Berkeley.
    2. Andrea Buraschi & Paolo Porchia & Fabio Trojani, 2010. "Correlation Risk and Optimal Portfolio Choice," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 65(1), pages 393-420, 02.
    3. Lars Peter Hansen & Jose A Sheinkman, 2007. "Long-term Risk: An Operator Approach," Levine's Bibliography 122247000000001669, UCLA Department of Economics.
    4. Dumas, Bernard & Luciano, Elisa, 1991. " An Exact Solution to a Dynamic Portfolio Choice Problem under Transactions Costs," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 46(2), pages 577-95, June.
    5. Jun Liu, 2007. "Portfolio Selection in Stochastic Environments," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 20(1), pages 1-39, January.
    6. Wachter, Jessica A., 2002. "Portfolio and Consumption Decisions under Mean-Reverting Returns: An Exact Solution for Complete Markets," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 37(01), pages 63-91, March.
    7. Munk, Claus & Sorensen, Carsten, 2004. "Optimal consumption and investment strategies with stochastic interest rates," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(8), pages 1987-2013, August.
    8. Robert Fernholz & Ioannis Karatzas, 2005. "Relative arbitrage in volatility-stabilized markets," Annals of Finance, Springer, vol. 1(2), pages 149-177, November.
    9. Huberman, Gur & Ross, Stephen, 1983. "Portfolio Turnpike Theorems, Risk Aversion, and Regularly Varying Utility Functions," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 51(5), pages 1345-61, September.
    10. Thorsten Rheinländer, 2005. "An entropy approach to the Stein and Stein model with correlation," Finance and Stochastics, Springer, vol. 9(3), pages 399-413, 07.
    11. Dybvig, Philip H & Rogers, L C G & Back, Kerry, 1999. "Portfolio Turnpikes," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 12(1), pages 165-95.
    12. Sanford J. Grossman & Zhongquan Zhou, 1993. "Optimal Investment Strategies For Controlling Drawdowns," Mathematical Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 3(3), pages 241-276.
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    Cited by:
    1. Stefan Gerhold & Paolo Guasoni & Johannes Muhle-Karbe & Walter Schachermayer, 2014. "Transaction costs, trading volume, and the liquidity premium," Finance and Stochastics, Springer, vol. 18(1), pages 1-37, January.
    2. Paolo Guasoni & Constantinos Kardaras & Scott Robertson & Hao Xing, 2014. "Abstract, classic, and explicit turnpikes," Finance and Stochastics, Springer, vol. 18(1), pages 75-114, January.
    3. Paolo Guasoni & Johannes Muhle-Karbe, 2012. "Portfolio Choice with Transaction Costs: a User's Guide," Papers 1207.7330, arXiv.org.
    4. Vladimir Cherny & Jan Obłój, 2013. "Portfolio optimisation under non-linear drawdown constraints in a semimartingale financial model," Finance and Stochastics, Springer, vol. 17(4), pages 771-800, October.
    5. Vladimir Cherny & Jan Obloj, 2013. "Optimal portfolios of a long-term investor with floor or drawdown constraints," Papers 1305.6831, arXiv.org.
    6. Jan Kallsen & Johannes Muhle-Karbe, 2013. "The General Structure of Optimal Investment and Consumption with Small Transaction Costs," Papers 1303.3148, arXiv.org.
    7. Kasper Larsen & Hang Yu, 2012. "Horizon dependence of utility optimizers in incomplete models," Finance and Stochastics, Springer, vol. 16(4), pages 779-801, October.
    8. Sergey Nadtochiy & Michael Tehranchi, 2013. "Optimal investment for all time horizons and Martin boundary of space-time diffusions," Papers 1308.2254, arXiv.org, revised Jan 2014.
    9. Paolo Guasoni & Johannes Muhle-Karbe & Hao Xing, 2013. "Robust Portfolios and Weak Incentives in Long-Run Investments," Papers 1306.2751, arXiv.org, revised Aug 2014.

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