This file is part of IDEAS, which uses RePEc data


[ Papers | Articles | Software | Books | Chapters | Authors | Institutions | JEL Classification | NEP reports | Search | New papers by email | Author registration | Rankings | Volunteers | FAQ | Blog | Help! ]

Quantifying uncertainties for emission targets

Author info | Abstract | Publisher info | Download info | Related research | Statistics
Author Info
Frank Jotzo () (Australian National University, Research School of Pacific and Asian Studies)

Additional information is available for the following registered author(s):

Abstract

What is the magnitude of uncertainties about future greenhouse gas emissions, GDP and emissions intensity of economies? Is there a link between fluctuations in economic activity and fluctuations in emissions? These questions are crucial to understand the extent and composition of cost uncertainty under emissions trading schemes, the degree to which it can be reduced by mechanism design options such asintensity targets, and for calibrating models of emissions trading under uncertainty.This paper provides empirical analyses, using historical emissions data in forecast models and in country-level analysis over time. The results indicate that uncertainty about future energy sector CO2 emissions and emissions intensity is greater than uncertainty about future GDP; that uncertainties are greater in non-OECD than in OECD countries; and that there is a strong positive correlation between fluctuations in GDP and fluctuations in CO2 emissions, but not in all cases and not outside the energy sector.

Download Info
To download:

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. Information about this may be contained in the File-Format links below. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL: http://een.anu.edu.au/download_files/een0603.pdf
File Format: application/pdf
File Function:
Download Restriction: no

Publisher Info
Paper provided by Australian National University, Economics and Environment Network in its series Economics and Environment Network Working Papers with number 0603.

Download reference. The following formats are available: HTML (with abstract), plain text (with abstract), BibTeX, RIS (EndNote, RefMan, ProCite), ReDIF
Length: 34 pages
Date of creation: Jul 2006
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:anu:eenwps:0603

Contact details of provider:
Web page: http://een.anu.edu.au/

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its listing, contact: (Jack Pezzey).

Related research
Keywords: Uncertainty; greenhouse gas emissions; GDP; emissions intensity; intensity targets; forecasting.;

Other versions of this item:

Find related papers by JEL classification:
Q00 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - General - - - General

This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Galeotti, Marzio & Lanza, Alessandro, 1999. "Richer and cleaner? A study on carbon dioxide emissions in developing countries," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 27(10), pages 565-573, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Springer, Urs, 2003. "The market for tradable GHG permits under the Kyoto Protocol: a survey of model studies," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 25(5), pages 527-551, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Sinton, Jonathan E. & Fridley, David G., 2000. "What goes up: recent trends in China's energy consumption," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 28(10), pages 671-687, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Robert E. Hall & Charles I. Jones, 1999. "Why Do Some Countries Produce So Much More Output Per Worker Than Others?," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 114(1), pages 83-116, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  5. O'Neill, Brian C. & Desai, Mausami, 2005. "Accuracy of past projections of US energy consumption," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 33(8), pages 979-993, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Fisher-Vanden, Karen & Jefferson, Gary H. & Liu, Hongmei & Tao, Quan, 2004. "What is driving China's decline in energy intensity?," Resource and Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 26(1), pages 77-97, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Douglas Holtz-Eakin & Thomas M. Selden, 1992. "Stoking the Fires? Co2 Emissions and Economic Growth," NBER Working Papers 4248, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  8. Heil, Mark T. & Selden, Thomas M., 2001. "Carbon emissions and economic development: future trajectories based on historical experience," Environment and Development Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 6(01), pages 63-83, February. [Downloadable!]
Full references

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Frank Jotzo & John C. V. Pezzey, 2006. "Optimal Intensity Targets for Greenhouse Emissions Trading Under Uncertainty," Economics and Environment Network Working Papers 0605, Australian National University, Economics and Environment Network. [Downloadable!]
Statistics
Access and download statistics

Did you know? LogEc provides statistical analysis about downloads from this service (and others).

This page was last updated on 2009-11-15.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Department of Economics, College of Liberal Arts and Sciences, University of Connecticut using RePEc data on a server sponsored by the Society for Economic Dynamics.