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Exportação De Bens Primários Eapreciação Do Câmbio Real: Há Uma Ligação?

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  • NELSON MARCONI

    (FGV-SP/EESP)

  • MARCOS ROCHA

    (FGV-SP/EESP)

Abstract

A taxa real de câmbio real (TCR) pode ser considerada um dos mais relevantes preços relativos da economia, dada a influência que exerce sobre inúmeros outros preços e variáveis, e pode estar sobrevalorizada, dentre outros fatores, como sintoma da existência de um processo de Doença Holandesa. Assim, buscando comprovar esta última afirmação, investigou-se neste trabalho se há uma relação entre concentração da pauta de exportações em commodities e apreciação da TCR. Para isso, foi construído, a partir de um painel cointegrado para 102 países, um índice de desalinhamento da TCR, com o intuito de relacioná-lo ao tipo de pauta de exportação dos países. Primeiramente foram feitos testes para definir os determinantes da TCR de longo prazo e, posteriormente, para identificar aqueles que concorrem para a sua sobreapreciação. Os resultados demonstram que uma pauta de exportações concentrada em produtos primários contribui para apreciar a TCR, enquanto uma pauta com maior participação de manufaturados não exerce o mesmo efeito, o que é condizente com os efeitos esperados pelos modelos teóricos de Doença Holandesa. The real exchange rate (RER) can be considered one of the most important relative price of economics, given the influence it exerts on many other prices and variables, and may be overvalued, among other factors, as a symptom of the existence of a Dutch disease process. Thus, seeking to prove that assertion, this study investigated whether there is a relationship between the concentration of exports in commodities and appreciation of the real exchange rate. We constructed an index of RER misalignment from a cointegrated panel of 102 countries, in order to relate it to the type of export basket of countries. At first tests were undertaken to define the determinants of long-term real exchange rate and, subsequently, to identify those that contribute to its overvaluation. The results demonstrate that an export basket focused on prima

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Paper provided by ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pósgraduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics] in its series Anais do XXXVIII Encontro Nacional de Economia [Proceedings of the 38th Brazilian Economics Meeting] with number 103.

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Date of creation: 2011
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Handle: RePEc:anp:en2010:103

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  1. Bhaduri, Amit & Marglin, Stephen, 1990. "Unemployment and the Real Wage: The Economic Basis for Contesting Political Ideologies," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 14(4), pages 375-93, December.
  2. Pereira, Luiz Carlos Bresser, 2004. "Exchange Rate: Fix, Float, or Manage It?," Textos para discussão 135, Escola de Economia de São Paulo, Getulio Vargas Foundation (Brazil).
  3. Reinhart, Carmen & Talvi, Ernesto, 1998. "Capital flows and saving in Latin America and Asia: A reinterpretation," MPRA Paper 13704, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  4. Arellano, Manuel & Bond, Stephen, 1991. "Some Tests of Specification for Panel Data: Monte Carlo Evidence and an Application to Employment Equations," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 58(2), pages 277-97, April.
  5. Sebastian Edwards, 1995. "Why are Saving Rates so Different Across Countries?: An International Comparative Analysis," NBER Working Papers 5097, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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