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Why foreign savings fail to cause growth

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  • Gala, Paulo Sérgio de Oliveira Simões
  • Pereira, Luiz Carlos Bresser

Abstract

Este artigo é uma formalização da crítica à estratégia do crescimento com poupança externa que um de seus autores vem sendo fazendo nos últimos anos. Apesar dos países de renda média serem pobres de capital, os déficits em conta corrente (poupança externa), financiado seja por empréstimos ou por investimentos externos diretos, não irá aumentar a taxa de acumulação de capital ou terá pouco impacto sobre ela, uma vez que os déficits de conta corrente estarão associados taxas de câmbio apreciadas, ordenados e salários aumentados artificialmente e altos níveis de consumo. Consequentemente, a taxa de substituição da poupança externa pela interna será relativamente alta, e o país será obrigado não a investir e crescer, mas a consumir. Apenas quando há grandes oportunidades de investimento, estimuladas por uma ampla diferença entre a taxa de lucro esperada e a taxa de juros de longo prazo, a propensão marginal ao consumo diminuirá suficientemente, a ponto de o lucro adicional originário do fluxo de capital estrangeiro ser usado para investimento, ao invés de para consumo. Neste caso especial, a taxa de substituição de poupança externa pela interna tenderá a ser menor e a poupança interna contribuirá positivamente para o crescimento

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Escola de Economia de São Paulo, Getulio Vargas Foundation (Brazil) in its series Textos para discussão with number 159.

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Date of creation: 16 Oct 2008
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Handle: RePEc:fgv:eesptd:159

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References

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  1. Schmidt-Hebbel, Klaus & Webb, Steven B & Corsetti, Giancarlo, 1992. "Household Saving in Developing Countries: First Cross-Country Evidence," World Bank Economic Review, World Bank Group, World Bank Group, vol. 6(3), pages 529-47, September.
  2. Sinn, Stefan, 1992. "Saving-Investment Correlations and Capital Mobility: On the Evidence from Annual Data," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, Royal Economic Society, vol. 102(414), pages 1162-70, September.
  3. Pereira, Luiz Carlos Bresser & Nakano, Yoshiaki, 2002. "Economic Growth With Foreign Saving?," Textos para discussão, Escola de Economia de São Paulo, Getulio Vargas Foundation (Brazil) 118, Escola de Economia de São Paulo, Getulio Vargas Foundation (Brazil).
  4. Luiz Carlos Bresser-Pereira & Carmen Augusta Varela, 2004. "The second Washington consensus and Latin America's quasi-stagnation," Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, M.E. Sharpe, Inc., M.E. Sharpe, Inc., vol. 27(2), pages 231-250, December.
  5. Fry, Maxwell J, 1978. "Money and Capital or Financial Deepening in Economic Development?," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 10(4), pages 464-75, November.
  6. Carmen Reinhart & Guillermo Calvo & Leonardo Leiderman, 1992. "Capital Inflows to Latin America," IMF Working Papers, International Monetary Fund 92/85, International Monetary Fund.
  7. Sebastian Edwards, 1995. "Why are Saving Rates so Different Across Countries?: An International Comparative Analysis," NBER Working Papers 5097, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  8. Reinhart, Carmen & Calvo, Guillermo & Leiderman, Leonardo, 1995. "Capital inflows to Latin America with reference to the Asian experience," MPRA Paper 13840, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  9. Barry Eichengreen & David Leblang, 2003. "Capital account liberalization and growth: was Mr. Mahathir right?," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 8(3), pages 205-224.
  10. Reinhart, Carmen & Talvi, Ernesto, 1998. "Capital flows and saving in Latin America and Asia: A reinterpretation," MPRA Paper 13704, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  11. Hélène Poirson & Luca Antonio Ricci & Catherine A. Pattillo, 2002. "External Debt and Growth," IMF Working Papers, International Monetary Fund 02/69, International Monetary Fund.
  12. Martin Feldstein & Charles Horioka, 1979. "Domestic Savings and International Capital Flows," NBER Working Papers 0310, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  13. Cohen, Daniel, 1993. "Growth and External Debt," CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers 778, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  14. Coakley, Jerry & Kulasi, Farida & Smith, Ron, 1996. "Current Account Solvency and the Feldstein-Horioka Puzzle," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, Royal Economic Society, vol. 106(436), pages 620-27, May.
  15. Luiz Carlos Bresser-Pereira, 2002. "Brazil's Quasi-Stagnation and the Growth cum Foreign Savings Strategy," International Journal of Political Economy, M.E. Sharpe, Inc., M.E. Sharpe, Inc., vol. 32(4), pages 76-102, January.
  16. Pereira, Luiz Carlos Bresser, 2002. "Financiamento para o Subdesenvolvimento, o Brasil e o Segundo Consenso de Washington," Textos para discussão, Escola de Economia de São Paulo, Getulio Vargas Foundation (Brazil) 119, Escola de Economia de São Paulo, Getulio Vargas Foundation (Brazil).
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Luiz Carlos Bresser-Pereira, 2010. "The global financial crisis and a new capitalism?," Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, M.E. Sharpe, Inc., M.E. Sharpe, Inc., vol. 32(4), pages 499-534, July.
  2. Pereira, Luiz Carlos Bresser, 2008. "National Development Strategy: the Key Growth Institution," Textos para discussão, Escola de Economia de São Paulo, Getulio Vargas Foundation (Brazil) 161, Escola de Economia de São Paulo, Getulio Vargas Foundation (Brazil).
  3. Dani Rodrik & Arvind Subramanian, 2009. "Why Did Financial Globalization Disappoint?," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 56(1), pages 112-138, April.
  4. Pereira, Luiz Carlos Bresser, 2009. "The Global Financial Crisis And After: A New Capitalism?," Textos para discussão, Escola de Economia de São Paulo, Getulio Vargas Foundation (Brazil) 240, Escola de Economia de São Paulo, Getulio Vargas Foundation (Brazil).
  5. Bresser-Pereira, Luiz Carlos (Luiz Carlos Bresser), 2011. "Structuralist macroeconomics and new developmentalism," Textos para discussão, Escola de Economia de São Paulo, Getulio Vargas Foundation (Brazil) 298, Escola de Economia de São Paulo, Getulio Vargas Foundation (Brazil).

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