IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ags/uersrr/262200.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Changing Structure, Financial Risks, and Government Policy for the U.S. Dairy Industry

Author

Listed:
  • MacDonald, James M.
  • Cessna, Jerry
  • Mosheim, Roberto

Abstract

Congress reorganized dairy policy in the Agricultural Act of 2014 when it eliminated three programs and created the Dairy Margin Protection Program. The new program aims to provide farmers with financial protection against risks from increasing vola - tility in milk and feed prices. These developments occurred amid ongoing structural change toward larger dairy farms, as well as ongoing change in dairy product demand, away from fluid milk, and toward manufactured products sold in domestic and export markets. This report focuses on the interrelated topics of structural change in dairy production, changes in dairy product markets, growing price volatility, and dairy policy. It details the major developments in each, traces the linkages among them, and identifies the challenges that structural change, evolving product markets, and price volatility pose for policy. ----- Errata On May 17, the following corrections were made to ERR-205, Changing Structure, Financial Risks, and Government Policy for the U.S. Dairy Industry . Three cells in Table 3 were updated as follows: “Western States, 3,000-3,999 head in 1992" (19), “Traditional States, 1,000-1,999 head in 1997" (54), and “Other States, 1,000-1,999 head in 2002" (56). On page 10, the State in which Shamrock Farms is located was corrected. In addition, Appendix table A-2 was updated to reflect return-on-equity calculations for the full rather than a restricted sample of dairy farms.

Suggested Citation

  • MacDonald, James M. & Cessna, Jerry & Mosheim, Roberto, 2016. "Changing Structure, Financial Risks, and Government Policy for the U.S. Dairy Industry," Economic Research Report 262200, United States Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service.
  • Handle: RePEc:ags:uersrr:262200
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.262200
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://ageconsearch.umn.edu/record/262200/files/56833_err205_errata.pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    File URL: https://ageconsearch.umn.edu/record/262200/files/56833_err205_errata.pdf?subformat=pdfa
    Download Restriction: no

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.22004/ag.econ.262200?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Wolf, Christopher A. & Widmar, Nicole J. Olynk, 2014. "Adoption of Milk and Feed Forward Pricing Methods by Dairy Farmers," Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 46(4), pages 527-541, November.
    2. Brian Wright, 2014. "Global Biofuels: Key to the Puzzle of Grain Market Behavior," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 28(1), pages 73-98, Winter.
    3. Jean-Paul Chavas & Richard M. Klemme, 1986. "Aggregate Milk Supply Response and Investment Behavior on U.S. Dairy Farms," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 68(1), pages 55-66.
    4. Jean-Paul Chavas & Matthew T. Holt, 1990. "Acreage Decisions Under Risk: The Case of Corn and Soybeans," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 72(3), pages 529-538.
    5. Wright, Brian, 2014. "Global Biofuels: Key to the Puzzle of Grain Market Behavior," Department of Agricultural & Resource Economics, UC Berkeley, Working Paper Series qt11715438, Department of Agricultural & Resource Economics, UC Berkeley.
    6. Davis, Christopher G. & Dong, Diansheng & Blayney, Donald P. & Owens, Ashley, 2010. "An Analysis of U.S. Household Dairy Demand," Technical Bulletins 184308, United States Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service.
    7. Nicholson, Charles F. & Stephenson, Mark W., 2014. "Dynamic Market Impacts of the Dairy Margin Protection Program," Journal of Agribusiness, Agricultural Economics Association of Georgia, vol. 32(2).
    8. Mosheim, Roberto, 2012. "A Quarterly Econometric Model for Short-Term Forecasting of the U.S. Dairy Industry," Technical Bulletins 184305, United States Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service.
    9. Carlos D. Mayen & Joseph V. Balagtas & Corinne E. Alexander, 2010. "Technology Adoption and Technical Efficiency: Organic and Conventional Dairy Farms in the United States," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 92(1), pages 181-195.
    10. Huang, Kuo S. & Lin, Biing-Hwan, 2000. "Estimation of Food Demand Nutrient Elasticities from household Survey Data," Technical Bulletins 184370, United States Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service.
    11. Huang, Kuo S. & Lin, Biing-Hwan, 2000. "Estimation Of Food Demand And Nutrient Elasticities From Household Survey Data," Technical Bulletins 33579, United States Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service.
    12. MacDonald, James M. & O'Donoghue, Erik J. & McBride, William D. & Nehring, Richard F. & Sandretto, Carmen L. & Mosheim, Roberto, 2007. "Profits, Costs, and the Changing Structure of Dairy Farming," Economic Research Report 6704, United States Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service.
    13. Schmit, Todd M. & Dong, Diansheng & Chung, Chanjin & Kaiser, Harry M. & Gould, Brian W., 2002. "Identifying The Effects Of Generic Advertising On The Household Demand For Fluid Milk And Cheese: A Two-Step Panel Data Approach," Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 27(1), pages 1-22, July.
    14. Marin Bozic & Christopher A. Kanter & Brian W. Gould, 2012. "Tracing the evolution of the aggregate U.S. milk supply elasticity using a herd dynamics model," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 43(5), pages 515-530, September.
    15. Nigel Key & Stacy Sneeringer, 2014. "Potential Effects of Climate Change on the Productivity of U.S. Dairies," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 96(4), pages 1136-1156.
    16. Bozic, Marin & Newton, John & Thraen, Cameron S. & Gould, Brian W., 2012. "Mean-reversion in Income over Feed Cost Margins:Evidence and Implications for Managing Margin Risk by U.S. Dairy Producers," Staff Papers 132379, University of Minnesota, Department of Applied Economics.
    17. Blayney, Donald P. & Gehlhar, Mark J. & Bolling, H. Christine & Jones, Keithly G. & Langley, Suchada V. & Normile, Mary Anne & Somwaru, Agapi, 2006. "U.S. Dairy at a Global Crossroads," Economic Research Report 7209, United States Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service.
    18. Mechel Paggi & Charles F. Nicholson, 2013. "Federal and State Marketing Orders," Natural Resource Management and Policy, in: Walter J. Armbruster & Ronald D. Knutson (ed.), US Programs Affecting Food and Agricultural Marketing, edition 127, chapter 0, pages 137-169, Springer.
    19. Roberto Mosheim & C.A. Knox Lovell, 2007. "Scale Economies and Inefficiency of U.S. Dairy Farms," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 91(3), pages 777-794.
    20. Mosheim, Roberto & Blaney, Don & Burdine, Kenneth H. & Maynard, Leigh J., 2014. "Livestock Gross Margin-Dairy Insurance: An Assessment of Risk Management and Potential Supply Impacts," Economic Research Report 164606, United States Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service.
    21. Ifft, Jennifer & Patrick, Kevin & Novini, Amirdara, 2014. "Debt Use By U.S Farm Businesses, 1992-2011," Economic Information Bulletin 165912, United States Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Jonathan Walsh & Robert Parsons & Qingbin Wang & David Conner, 2020. "What Makes an Organic Dairy Farm Profitable in the United States? Evidence from 10 Years of Farm Level Data in Vermont," Agriculture, MDPI, vol. 10(1), pages 1-13, January.
    2. Dubman, Robert & Key, Nigel & Law, Jonathan & Litkowski, Carrie & Mandalay, Okkar & Subedi, Dipak & Todd, Jessica E & Whitt, Christine, 2021. "Agricultural Income and Finance Situation and Outlook: 2021 Edition," Economic Information Bulletin 327362, United States Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service.
    3. Njuki, Eric, 2022. "Sources, Trends, and Drivers of U.S. Dairy Productivity and Efficiency," Economic Research Report 320329, United States Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service.
    4. MacDonald, James M. & Hoppe, Robert A. & Newton, Doris, 2018. "Three Decades of Consolidation in U.S. Agriculture," Economic Information Bulletin 276247, United States Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service.
    5. Bigelow, Daniel & Borchers, Allison, 2017. "Major Uses of Land in the United States, 2012," Economic Information Bulletin 263079, United States Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service.
    6. George W. Norton, 2020. "Lessons from a Career in Agricultural Development and Research Evaluation," Applied Economic Perspectives and Policy, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 42(2), pages 151-167, June.
    7. Erickson, Kenneth W. & Featherstone, Allen M. & Subedi, Dipak & Nehring, Richard F. & Harris, James Michael, 2017. "How Fluctuations in Farm and Off-Farm Income Could Affect the Financial Performance of U.S. Farm Operator Dairy Farms: A Farm-level Analysis," 2017 Annual Meeting, July 30-August 1, Chicago, Illinois 258488, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    8. Cessna, Jerry & DelCurto, Molly & Terán, Angel & Crouse, Joseph, 2023. "Documentation for the USDA, Economic Research Service Annual U.S. Dairy Sector Econometric Model," Technical Bulletins 338950, United States Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service.
    9. Ralston, Katherine & Beaulieu, Elizabeth & Hyman, Jeffrey & Benson, Matthew & Smith, Michael, 2017. "Daily Access to Local Foods for School Meals: Key Drivers," Economic Information Bulletin 256713, United States Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service.
    10. Mark, Tyler B. & Burdine, Kenneth H. & Cessna, Jerry & Dohlman, Erik, 2016. "The Effects of the Margin Protection Program for Dairy Producers," Economic Research Report 262192, United States Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Key, Nigel D. & Sneeringer, Stacy & Marquardt, David, 2014. "Climate Change, Heat Stress, and U.S. Dairy Production," Economic Research Report 186731, United States Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service.
    2. Hyunseok Kim & GianCarlo Moschini, 2018. "The Dynamics of Supply: U.S. Corn and Soybeans in the Biofuel Era," Land Economics, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 94(4), pages 593-613.
    3. Biing‐Hwan Lin & Steven T. Yen & Diansheng Dong & David M. Smallwood, 2010. "Economic Incentives For Dietary Improvement Among Food Stamp Recipients," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 28(4), pages 524-536, October.
    4. Heesun, Jang & Xiaodong, Du, 2014. "Spatiotemporal Analysis of Dairy Farm Productivity, Size, and Entry-Exit in the US," 2014 Annual Meeting, July 27-29, 2014, Minneapolis, Minnesota 169824, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    5. Davis, Christopher G. & Blayney, Donald P. & Cooper, Joseph C. & Yen, Steven T., 2009. "An Analysis of Demand Elasticities for Fluid Milk Products in the U.S," 2009 Conference, August 16-22, 2009, Beijing, China 51791, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
    6. Loughrey, J. & Thorne, F. & Kinsella, A. & Hennessy, T. & O'Donoghue, C. & Vollenweider, X., 2015. "Market risk management and the demand for forward contracts among Irish dairy farmers," International Journal of Agricultural Management, Institute of Agricultural Management, vol. 4(4), July.
    7. Astill, G. & Sabasi, D. & Gwatipedza, J., 2018. "Direct Marketing Strategies and Farmers’ Technical Efficiency in U.S. Agriculture," 2018 Conference, July 28-August 2, 2018, Vancouver, British Columbia 275917, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
    8. Hutchins, Jared & Hueth, Brent, 2021. "Supply Response in Dairy Farming: Evidence from Monthly, Animal-Level Data," Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 47(1), January.
    9. Nicolas Legrand, 2023. "War in Ukraine: The rational “wait‐and‐see” mode of global food markets," Applied Economic Perspectives and Policy, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 45(2), pages 626-644, June.
    10. Chouinard, Hayley H & Davis, David E. & LaFrance, Jeffrey T. & Perloff, Jeffrey M, 2005. "The Effects of a Fat Tax on Dairy Products," Department of Agricultural & Resource Economics, UC Berkeley, Working Paper Series qt60t1f3tn, Department of Agricultural & Resource Economics, UC Berkeley.
    11. Shapiro, Jesse M., 2005. "Is there a daily discount rate? Evidence from the food stamp nutrition cycle," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 89(2-3), pages 303-325, February.
    12. Hayley H. Chouinard & David E. Davis & Jeffrey T. LaFrance & Jeffrey M. Perloff, 2010. "Milk Marketing Order Winners and Losers," Applied Economic Perspectives and Policy, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 32(1), pages 59-76.
    13. Rickard, Bradley J. & Gonsalves, Jana, 2006. "Examining Potential Changes in Nutrition: Recommendations and Implications for Specialty Crops in California," Research Project Reports 121617, California Polytechnic State University, San Luis Obispo, California Institute for the Study of Specialty Crops.
    14. Cremer, Helmuth & Goulão, Catarina & Roeder, Kerstin, 2016. "Earmarking and the political support of fat taxes," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 258-267.
    15. Chambwera, Muyeye & Folmer, Henk, 2007. "Fuel switching in Harare: An almost ideal demand system approach," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 35(4), pages 2538-2548, April.
    16. Taheripour, Farzad & Baumes, Harry & Tyner, Wally Taheripour, Farzad, 2019. "Impacts of the U.S. Renewable Fuel Standard on Commodity and Food Prices," Conference papers 333127, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    17. Dalheimer, Bernhard & Herwartz, Helmut & Lange, Alexander, 2021. "The threat of oil market turmoils to food price stability in Sub-Saharan Africa," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 93(C).
    18. Färe, Rolf & Grosskopf, Shawna & Hayes, Kathy J. & Margaritis, Dimitris, 2008. "Estimating demand with distance functions: Parameterization in the primal and dual," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 147(2), pages 266-274, December.
    19. Anais Maillet, 2015. "Food price volatility and farmers' production decisions under imperfect information," FOODSECURE Technical papers 8, LEI Wageningen UR.
    20. Glauber, Joseph W. & Effland, Anne, 2016. "United States agricultural policy: Its evolution and impact:," IFPRI discussion papers 1543, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ags:uersrr:262200. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: AgEcon Search (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/ersgvus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.