IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ags/peppwp/164414.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Public Infrastructure and economic growth in Pakistan: a dynamic CGE-microsimulation analysis

Author

Listed:
  • Ahmed, Vaqar
  • Abbas, Ahsan
  • Ahmed, Sofia

Abstract

The role of infrastructure in economic growth and welfare has been studied extensively across the literature over the past three decades. We use a dynamic CGE model linked to a microsimulation model to estimate the macro-micro impact of public infrastructure investment. Two approaches to public investment are considered in our simulations. In the first, production taxes finance the additional public infrastructure investment and in the second, foreign borrowing provides resources. Our results reveal that public infrastructure investments have the same direction of impact whether funded by taxation or international borrowing, particularly when looking at macroeconomic gains and poverty reduction in the long run. However, in the very short run, tax financing puts a strain on output in the industrial sector and thus reduces economic growth in the short run. The financing from international borrowing has a Dutch disease-like impact in the short run, as indicated by a decline in exports.

Suggested Citation

  • Ahmed, Vaqar & Abbas, Ahsan & Ahmed, Sofia, 2013. "Public Infrastructure and economic growth in Pakistan: a dynamic CGE-microsimulation analysis," PEP Working Papers 164414, Partnership for Economic Policy (PEP).
  • Handle: RePEc:ags:peppwp:164414
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.164414
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://ageconsearch.umn.edu/record/164414/files/1360634389-WP_2013-01_MPIA-12304.public.2.pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.22004/ag.econ.164414?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Wolde-Rufael, Yemane, 2009. "Energy consumption and economic growth: The experience of African countries revisited," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(2), pages 217-224.
    2. Holtz-Eakin, Douglas, 1994. "Public-Sector Capital and the Productivity Puzzle," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 76(1), pages 12-21, February.
    3. Miguel Ramirez, 2004. "Is public infrastructure spending productive in the Mexican case? A vector error correction analysis," The Journal of International Trade & Economic Development, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 13(2), pages 159-178.
    4. M. Tariq Yousuf Khan & Komei Sasaki, 2001. "Roles of Public Capital in Pakistan’s Economy: Productivity, Investment and Growth Analysis," Review of Urban & Regional Development Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 13(2), pages 143-162, July.
    5. Ewing, Bradley T. & Payne, James E. & Caporin, Massimilano, 2022. "The Asymmetric Impact of Oil Prices and Production on Drilling Rig Trajectory: A correction," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).
    6. Antonio Estache & Jean-François Perrault & Luc Savard, 2008. "Impact Of Infrastructure Spending In Sub-Saharan Africa: A Cge Modeling Approach," Cahiers de recherche 08-03, Departement d'économique de l'École de gestion à l'Université de Sherbrooke.
    7. Daniel Montolio & Albert Solé‐Ollé, 2009. "Road investment and regional productivity growth: the effects of vehicle intensity and congestion," Papers in Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 88(1), pages 99-118, March.
    8. Doroth饠Boccanfuso & Marcelin Joanis & Patrick Richard & Luc Savard, 2014. "A comparative analysis of funding schemes for public infrastructure spending in Quebec," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 46(22), pages 2653-2664, August.
    9. Aschauer, David Alan, 1989. "Is public expenditure productive?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 23(2), pages 177-200, March.
    10. Christopher S. Adam & David L. Bevan, 2006. "Aid and the Supply Side: Public Investment, Export Performance, and Dutch Disease in Low-Income Countries," The World Bank Economic Review, World Bank, vol. 20(2), pages 261-290.
    11. Junjie Hong & Zhaofang Chu & Qiang Wang, 2011. "Transport infrastructure and regional economic growth: evidence from China," Transportation, Springer, vol. 38(5), pages 737-752, September.
    12. Ahmed, Vaqar & Sugiyarto, Guntur & Jha, Shikha, 2010. "Remittances and Household Welfare: A Case Study of Pakistan," ADB Economics Working Paper Series 194, Asian Development Bank.
    13. Haque, Nadeem & Pirzada, Ahmed & Ahmed, Vaqar, 2011. "Rethinking connectivity as interactivity: a case study of Pakistan," MPRA Paper 34049, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    14. James Giesecke & Peter B. Dixon & Maureen T. Rimmer, 2008. "Regional macroeconomic outcomes under alternative arrangements for the financing of public infrastructure," Papers in Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 87(1), pages 3-31, March.
    15. Stephanie Levy, 2007. "Public Investment to Reverse Dutch Disease: The Case of Chad," Journal of African Economies, Centre for the Study of African Economies, vol. 16(3), pages 439-484, June.
    16. Antonio Estache & Jean-François Perrault & Luc Savard, 2007. "Impact of Infrastructure Spending in Mali: A CGE modeling approach," Cahiers de recherche 07-24, Departement d'économique de l'École de gestion à l'Université de Sherbrooke.
    17. Qazi Muhammad Adnan Hye & Sana Riaz, 2008. "Causality between Energy Consumption and Economic Growth: The Case of Pakistan," Lahore Journal of Economics, Department of Economics, The Lahore School of Economics, vol. 13(2), pages 45-58, Jul-Dec.
    18. Marazzo, Marcial & Scherre, Rafael & Fernandes, Elton, 2010. "Air transport demand and economic growth in Brazil: A time series analysis," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 46(2), pages 261-269, March.
    19. Lee, Chien-Chiang & Chang, Chun-Ping, 2008. "Energy consumption and economic growth in Asian economies: A more comprehensive analysis using panel data," Resource and Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(1), pages 50-65, January.
    20. Vaqar, Ahmed & Ghulam, Samad, 2011. "Trade facilitation for economic corridors in South Asia: the perspective of Pakistan," MPRA Paper 31368, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    21. Banister, David & Thurstain-Goodwin, Mark, 2011. "Quantification of the non-transport benefits resulting from rail investment," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 19(2), pages 212-223.
    22. World Bank, 2007. "Pakistan : Infrastructure Implementation Capacity Assessment," World Bank Publications - Reports 7671, The World Bank Group.
    23. Vaqar Ahmed & Cathal O'Donoghue, 2010. "External Shocks in a Small Open Economy: A CGE - Microsimulation Analysis," Lahore Journal of Economics, Department of Economics, The Lahore School of Economics, vol. 15(1), pages 45-90, Jan-Jun.
    24. Ejaz Ghani & Musleh-Ud Din, 2006. "The Impact of Public Investment on Economic Growth in Pakistan," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 45(1), pages 87-98.
    25. Felix K. Rioja, 2001. "Growth, Welfare, and Public Infrastructure: A General Equilibrium Analysis of Latin American Economies," Journal of Economic Development, Chung-Ang Unviersity, Department of Economics, vol. 26(2), pages 119-130, December.
    26. Boris Dodonov & Christian Von Hirschhausen & Petra Opitz & Pavlo Sugolov, 2002. "Efficient Infrastructure Supply for Economic Development in Transition Countries: The Case of Ukraine," Post-Communist Economies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 14(2), pages 149-167.
    27. Edward Nketiah-Amponsah, 2009. "Public spending and economic growth: evidence from Ghana (1970-2004)," Development Southern Africa, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 26(3), pages 477-497.
    28. Straub, Stephane & Vellutini, Charles & Warlters, Michael, 2008. "Infrastructure and economic growth in East Asia," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4589, The World Bank.
    29. Salvador Barrios & Luisito Bertinelli & Eric Strobl, 2010. "Trends in Rainfall and Economic Growth in Africa: A Neglected Cause of the African Growth Tragedy," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 92(2), pages 350-366, May.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Marjit Sugata & Mandal Biswajit & Chatterjee Tonmoy, 2017. "Infrastructure Development Versus Direct Cash Transfer: A General Equilibrium Comparison," Review of Economics, De Gruyter, vol. 68(1), pages 63-74, April.
    2. Marjit, Sugata & Mandal, Biswajit & Chatterjee, Tonmoy, 2016. "Infrastructure Development vs Direct Cash Transfer: A General Equilibrium Comparison," MPRA Paper 73126, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Syed Shujaat AHMED & Asif JAVED, 2017. "The Effect of Public Sector Development Expenditures and Investment on Economic Growth: Evidence from Pakistan," Journal of Economics and Political Economy, KSP Journals, vol. 4(2), pages 203-214, June.
    4. Rimsha Irshad & Mehr-un-Nisa & Naghmana Ghafoor, 2023. "Infrastructure and Economic Growth: Evidence from Lower Middle-Income Countries," Journal of the Knowledge Economy, Springer;Portland International Center for Management of Engineering and Technology (PICMET), vol. 14(1), pages 161-179, March.
    5. Batool, Irem & Goldmann, Kathrin, 2021. "The role of public and private transport infrastructure capital in economic growth. Evidence from Pakistan," Research in Transportation Economics, Elsevier, vol. 88(C).
    6. Mohmand, Yasir Tariq & Mehmood, Fahad & Mughal, Khurrum Shahzad & Aslam, Faheem, 2021. "Investigating the causal relationship between transport infrastructure, economic growth and transport emissions in Pakistan," Research in Transportation Economics, Elsevier, vol. 88(C).
    7. Ahmed, Riaz, 2016. "Social infrastructure and productivity of manufacturing firms: Evidence from Pakistan," ZEW Discussion Papers 16-038, ZEW - Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research.
    8. Nagesh Kumar & Matthew Hammill & Selim Raihan & Swayamsiddha Panda, 2016. "Strategies for Achieving the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) in South Asia: Lessons from Policy Simulations," Development Papers 1601, United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific (ESCAP) South and South-West Asia Office.
    9. Muhammad Javid, 2019. "Public and Private Infrastructure Investment and Economic Growth in Pakistan: An Aggregate and Disaggregate Analysis," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(12), pages 1-22, June.
    10. Dmitriy, Skrypnik, 2020. "Инфраструктура И Экономический Рост. «Бюджетный Маневр» В России [Infrastructure and economic growth. "Budgetary maneuver" in Russia]," MPRA Paper 104920, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    11. Botero García, Jesús Alonso & Franco Gonzalez, Humberto & Hurtado Rendon, Alvaro & Arellano Morales, Matheo & MontañEz Herrera, Diego Fernando, 2020. "Fiscal sustainability, public expense and economic growth," Conference papers 333218, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Ahmed, Vaqar & Abbas, Ahsan & Ahmed, Sofia & Zeshan, Muhammed, 2012. "Public Infrastructure and Economic Growth in Pakistan: A Dynamic CGE- microsimulation Analysis," Conference papers 332289, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    2. Dorothée Boccanfuso & Marcelin Joanis & Mathieu Paquet & Luc Savard, 2015. "Impact de productivité des infrastructures: Une application au Québec," Cahiers de recherche 15-06, Departement d'économique de l'École de gestion à l'Université de Sherbrooke.
    3. Muhammad Javid, 2019. "Public and Private Infrastructure Investment and Economic Growth in Pakistan: An Aggregate and Disaggregate Analysis," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(12), pages 1-22, June.
    4. Harald SCHMIDBAUER & Ece DEMIREL, 2010. "Monetary Authorities and Exchange Rate Volatility: Turkey and other Cases," EcoMod2010 259600150, EcoMod.
    5. Shahbaz, Muhammad & Islam, Faridul & Sabihuddin Butt, Muhammad, 2015. "Finance-Growth-Energy Nexus and the Role of Agriculture and Modern Sectors: Evidence from ARDL Bounds Test Approach to Cointegration in Pakistan," MPRA Paper 62848, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 14 Mar 2015.
    6. Park, Jin Suk & Seo, Young-Joon & Ha, Min-Ho, 2019. "The role of maritime, land, and air transportation in economic growth: Panel evidence from OECD and non-OECD countries," Research in Transportation Economics, Elsevier, vol. 78(C).
    7. Shahbaz, Muhammad & Hoang, Thi Hong Van & Mahalik, Mantu Kumar & Roubaud, David, 2017. "Energy consumption, financial development and economic growth in India: New evidence from a nonlinear and asymmetric analysis," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 199-212.
    8. Urrunaga, Roberto & Aparicio, Carlos, 2012. "Infrastructure and economic growth in Peru," Revista CEPAL, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL), August.
    9. Shahbaz, Muhammad & Lean, Hooi Hooi, 2012. "Does financial development increase energy consumption? The role of industrialization and urbanization in Tunisia," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 473-479.
    10. Dakpogan, Arnaud & Smit, Eon, 2018. "The effect of electricity losses on GDP in Benin," MPRA Paper 89545, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    11. Lenaerts, Bert & Allroggen, Florian & Malina, Robert, 2021. "The economic impact of aviation: A review on the role of market access," Journal of Air Transport Management, Elsevier, vol. 91(C).
    12. Muhammad Shahbaz & Faridul Islam & Muhammad Sabihuddin Butt, 2016. "Finance–Growth–Energy Nexus and the Role of Agriculture and Modern Sectors: Evidence from ARDL Bounds Test Approach to Cointegration in Pakistan," Global Business Review, International Management Institute, vol. 17(5), pages 1037-1059, October.
    13. Mitra, Arup & Sharma, Chandan & Véganzonès-Varoudakis, Marie-Ange, 2016. "Infrastructure, information & communication technology and firms’ productive performance of the Indian manufacturing," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 38(2), pages 353-371.
    14. Elburz, Zeynep & Nijkamp, Peter & Pels, Eric, 2017. "Public infrastructure and regional growth: Lessons from meta-analysis," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 1-8.
    15. Luc Savard, 2010. "Scaling up infrastructure spending in the Philippines: A CGE top-down bottom-up microsimulation approach," International Journal of Microsimulation, International Microsimulation Association, vol. 3(1), pages 43-59.
    16. Menegaki, Angeliki N. & Ozturk, Ilhan, 2013. "Growth and energy nexus in Europe revisited: Evidence from a fixed effects political economy model," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 881-887.
    17. Sarker Swati Anindita & Wang Shouyang & Adnan K M Mehedi, 2019. "Energy Consumption and Economic Growth Nexus in Bangladesh," Journal of Systems Science and Information, De Gruyter, vol. 7(6), pages 497-509, December.
    18. Magazzino, Cosimo & Giolli, Lorenzo, 2021. "The relationship among railway networks, energy consumption, and real added value in Italy. Evidence form ARDL and Wavelet analysis," Research in Transportation Economics, Elsevier, vol. 90(C).
    19. Elena Cigu & Daniela Tatiana Agheorghiesei & Anca Florentina Gavriluță (Vatamanu) & Elena Toader, 2018. "Transport Infrastructure Development, Public Performance and Long-Run Economic Growth: A Case Study for the Eu-28 Countries," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(1), pages 1-22, December.
    20. Tomasz Rokicki & Aleksandra Perkowska & Bogdan Klepacki & Piotr Bórawski & Aneta Bełdycka-Bórawska & Konrad Michalski, 2021. "Changes in Energy Consumption in Agriculture in the EU Countries," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(6), pages 1-21, March.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Public Economics;

    JEL classification:

    • C68 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Computable General Equilibrium Models
    • E22 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Investment; Capital; Intangible Capital; Capacity
    • H54 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - Infrastructures
    • I38 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Welfare, Well-Being, and Poverty - - - Government Programs; Provision and Effects of Welfare Programs

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ags:peppwp:164414. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: AgEcon Search (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/cdvlvca.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.