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Is public infrastructure spending productive in the Mexican case? A vector error correction analysis

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  • Miguel Ramirez

Abstract

This paper addresses the important question of whether public investment spending on economic infrastructure enhances economic growth in Mexico. It estimates a Cobb-Douglas production function that includes public infrastructure capital. Using cointegration analysis, the paper estimates a vector error correction model (VECM) for the 1995 - 99 period. The results suggest that there is a long-term stable relationship among the variables included in the VECM. The evidence also indicates that both public infrastructure spending and private capital formation have a positive and highly significant effect on the rate of output growth. Finally, the impulse response functions (IRF) and the variance decompositions (VDC) of the endogenous variables in the VECM suggest that the response of private capital to public infrastructure is positive while the reverse causation is not affirmed. From a policy standpoint, the findings call into question stabilization policies that disproportionately reduce public infrastructure to meet targeted reductions in the fiscal deficit (JEL, O1, O47, O54).

Suggested Citation

  • Miguel Ramirez, 2004. "Is public infrastructure spending productive in the Mexican case? A vector error correction analysis," The Journal of International Trade & Economic Development, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 13(2), pages 159-178.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:jitecd:v:13:y:2004:i:2:p:159-178
    DOI: 10.1080/0963819042000218700
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Duran-Fernandez, Roberto & Santos, Georgina, 2014. "Road infrastructure spillovers on the manufacturing sector in Mexico," Research in Transportation Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 17-29.
    2. Aswini Kumar Mishra & Kunapareddy Narendra & Bibhu Prasad Kar, 2013. "Growth And Infrastructure Investment In India: Achievements, Challenges, And Opportunities," Economic Annals, Faculty of Economics and Business, University of Belgrade, vol. 58(196), pages 51-70, January –.
    3. Torres Preciado, Víctor Hugo & Polanco Gaytán, Mayrén & Manzanares Rivera, José Luis, 2010. "Diferencias en el ingreso per cápita regional e infraestructura de transporte en México [Differences in per capita regional income and transport infrastructure in Mexico]," MPRA Paper 28081, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Moritz Cruz & Armando Sánchez‐Vargas, 2022. "Government spending and the exchange rate: Exploring this relationship in Mexico using a cointegrated system of equations," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 26(1), pages 587-605, February.
    5. Ram Pratap Sinha, 2021. "Indebtedness, Fiscal Discipline and Development Spending – A Non-parametric Approach," Central European Journal of Economic Modelling and Econometrics, Central European Journal of Economic Modelling and Econometrics, vol. 13(2), pages 147-173, June.
    6. Karim, Azreen & Noy, Ilan, 2015. "The (mis) allocation of public spending in a low income country: Evidence from disaster risk reduction spending in Bangladesh," Working Paper Series 19263, Victoria University of Wellington, School of Economics and Finance.
    7. Mark Setterfield, 2015. "Time variation in the size of the multiplier: a Kalecki-Harrod approach," Working Papers 1522, New School for Social Research, Department of Economics, revised Jan 2017.
    8. Vaqar Ahmed & Ahsan Abbas & Saira Ahmed, 2013. "Public infrastructure and economic growth in Pakistan: a dynamic CGE-microsimulation analysis," Working Papers MPIA 2013-01, PEP-MPIA.
    9. Gaurav Aakar & Vaibhav Agarwal & Varun Chotia, 0. "Assessing the Impact of Public Infrastructure Investment on Economic Performance: the Case of India," Romanian Economic Journal, Department of International Business and Economics from the Academy of Economic Studies Bucharest, vol. 20(65), pages 137-152, September.
    10. Nihal Bayraktar & Blanca Moreno-Dodson, 2018. "Public Expenditures And Growth In A Monetary Union: The Case Of Waemu," Eurasian Journal of Economics and Finance, Eurasian Publications, vol. 6(1), pages 107-132.
    11. Dan Lupu & Mihai Bogdan Petrisor & Ana Bercu & Mihaela Tofan, 2018. "The Impact of Public Expenditures on Economic Growth: A Case Study of Central and Eastern European Countries," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 54(3), pages 552-570, February.
    12. Nihal Bayraktar & Blanca Moreno-Dodson, 2015. "How Can Public Spending Help You Grow? An Empirical Analysis For Developing Countries," Bulletin of Economic Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 67(1), pages 30-64, January.
    13. Karim, Azreen & Noy, Ilan, 2015. "The (mis) allocation of public spending in a low income country: Evidence from disaster risk reduction spending in Bangladesh," Working Paper Series 4194, Victoria University of Wellington, School of Economics and Finance.
    14. Ahmed, Vaqar & Abbas, Ahsan & Ahmed, Sofia & Zeshan, Muhammed, 2012. "Public Infrastructure and Economic Growth in Pakistan: A Dynamic CGE- microsimulation Analysis," Conference papers 332289, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    15. Macdonald, Ryan, 2008. "An Examination of Public Capital's Role in Production," Economic Analysis (EA) Research Paper Series 2008050e, Statistics Canada, Analytical Studies Branch.
    16. Shi, Hao & Huang, Shaoqing, 2014. "How Much Infrastructure Is Too Much? A New Approach and Evidence from China," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 272-286.
    17. Karim, Azreen & Noy, Ilan, 2020. "Risk, poverty or politics? The determinants of subnational public spending allocation for adaptive disaster risk reduction in Bangladesh," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 129(C).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Augmented Dickey-Fuller Test (ADF); Akaike Information Criterion (AIC); Schwartz Bayesian Criterion (SBC); Impulse Response Functions (IRF); Variance Decompositions (VDC);
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • O1 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development
    • O47 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - Empirical Studies of Economic Growth; Aggregate Productivity; Cross-Country Output Convergence
    • O54 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - Latin America; Caribbean

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