IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/tri/wpaper/1904.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Public and Foreign Investment Spending in the Argentine Case.A Cointegration Analysis with Structural Breaks, 1960-2015

Author

Listed:
  • Miguel D. Ramirez

    (Department of Economics, Trinity College)

Abstract

This paper examines whether public investment spending and inward foreign direct investment (FDI) enhance labor productivity growth in Argentina. It presents a simple modified production function that explicitly includes the positive or negative externality effects generated by increases in the stock of public or FDI capital. The paper estimates a dynamic labor productivity function for the 1960-2015 period that incorporates the impact of public and private investment spending, education expenditures (at all levels), the labor force, and export growth. It tests for both single and two-break unit root tests, as well as performs cointegration tests with an endogenously determined shift over the 1960-2015 period. Cointegration analysis suggests that a long-term relationship exists among the relevant variables. The error correction (EC) models suggest that (lagged) increases in public investment spending and education have a positive and significant effect on the rate of labor productivity growth. In addition, the model is estimated for a shorter period (1970-2015)to capture the impact of inward FDI flows. The estimates suggest that (lagged) FDI flows have a positive and significant impact on labor productivity growth, while increases in the labor force have a negative effect. From a policy standpoint, the findings call into question the politically expedient policy in many Latin American countries, including Argentina during the 1990s and 2000s, of disproportionately reducing public capital expenditures on education and infrastructure to meet reductions in the fiscal deficit as a proportion of GDP. The results give further support to pro-investment and pro-growth policies designed to promote public investment spending and attract inward FDI flows.

Suggested Citation

  • Miguel D. Ramirez, 2019. "Public and Foreign Investment Spending in the Argentine Case.A Cointegration Analysis with Structural Breaks, 1960-2015," Working Papers 1904, Trinity College, Department of Economics, revised Sep 2019.
    • Handle: RePEc:tri:wpaper:1904
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www3.trincoll.edu/repec/WorkingPapers2019/WP19-04.pdf
    File Function: First version, 2019
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Johansen, Soren & Juselius, Katarina, 1990. "Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Inference on Cointegration--With Applications to the Demand for Money," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 52(2), pages 169-210, May.
    2. Werner Baer & Pedro Elosegui & Andres Gallo, 2002. "The Achievements and Failures of Argentina's Neo-liberal Economic Policies," Oxford Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 30(1), pages 63-85.
    3. Sen, Amit, 2003. "On Unit-Root Tests When the Alternative Is a Trend-Break Stationary Process," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 21(1), pages 174-184, January.
    4. Moguillansky, Graciela, 1996. "The macroeconomic context and investment: Latin America since 1980," Revista CEPAL, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL), April.
    5. Perron, Pierre, 1988. "Trends and random walks in macroeconomic time series : Further evidence from a new approach," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 297-332.
    6. Junsoo Lee & Mark C. Strazicich, 2003. "Minimum Lagrange Multiplier Unit Root Test with Two Structural Breaks," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 85(4), pages 1082-1089, November.
    7. J. M. Albala-Bertrand & E. C. Mamatzakis, 2001. "Is public infrastructure productive? Evidence from Chile," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 8(3), pages 195-198.
    8. Devarajan, Shantayanan & Swaroop, Vinaya & Heng-fu, Zou, 1996. "The composition of public expenditure and economic growth," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 37(2-3), pages 313-344, April.
    9. Agbloyor, Elikplimi Komla & Abor, Joshua Yindenaba & Adjasi, Charles Komla Delali & Yawson, Alfred, 2014. "Private capital flows and economic growth in Africa: The role of domestic financial markets," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 137-152.
    10. Gregory, Allan W. & Hansen, Bruce E., 1996. "Residual-based tests for cointegration in models with regime shifts," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 70(1), pages 99-126, January.
    11. Aschauer, David Alan, 1989. "Is public expenditure productive?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 23(2), pages 177-200, March.
    12. Ramirez, Miguel D., 2008. "Are Foreign and Public Capital Productive in the Mexican Case? A Panel Unit Root and Panel Cointegration Analysis," Working Papers 49, Yale University, Department of Economics.
    13. Nelson, Charles R. & Plosser, Charles I., 1982. "Trends and random walks in macroeconmic time series : Some evidence and implications," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 10(2), pages 139-162.
    14. Miguel D Ramirez, 2010. "Are Foreign and Public Capital Productive in the Mexican Case? A Panel Unit Root and Panel Cointegration Analysis," Eastern Economic Journal, Palgrave Macmillan;Eastern Economic Association, vol. 36(1), pages 70-87.
    15. Hakkio, Craig S. & Rush, Mark, 1991. "Cointegration: how short is the long run?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 10(4), pages 571-581, December.
    16. Mark Weisbrot & Rebecca Ray & Juan Montecino & Sara Kozameh, 2011. "The Argentine Success Story and its Implications," CEPR Reports and Issue Briefs 2011-21, Center for Economic and Policy Research (CEPR).
    17. Shiller, Robert J. & Perron, Pierre, 1985. "Testing the random walk hypothesis : Power versus frequency of observation," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 18(4), pages 381-386.
    18. Luiz R. de Mello Jr., 1997. "Foreign Direct Investment in Developing Countries: A Selective Survey," Studies in Economics 9701, School of Economics, University of Kent.
    19. Miguel D. Ramirez, 2019. "A FMOLS Analysis of FDI Flows to Latin America," Applied Economics and Finance, Redfame publishing, vol. 6(2), pages 86-98, March.
    20. Khan, Mohsin S. & Reinhart, Carmen M., 1990. "Private investment and economic growth in developing countries," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 18(1), pages 19-27, January.
    21. Miguel Ramirez, 2002. "Public capital formation and labor productivity growth in Mexico," Atlantic Economic Journal, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 30(4), pages 366-379, December.
    22. Waheed, Muhammad & Alam, Tasneem & Ghauri, Saghir Pervaiz, 2006. "Structural breaks and unit root: evidence from Pakistani macroeconomic time series," MPRA Paper 1797, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    23. Ram, Rati & Zhang, Kevin Honglin, 2002. "Foreign Direct Investment and Economic Growth: Evidence from Cross-Country Data for the 1990s," Economic Development and Cultural Change, University of Chicago Press, vol. 51(1), pages 205-215, October.
    24. Gregory, Allan W & Hansen, Bruce E, 1996. "Tests for Cointegration in Models with Regime and Trend Shifts," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 58(3), pages 555-560, August.
    25. World Bank, 2011. "World Development Indicators 2011," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 2315, December.
    26. Luiz de Mello, 1997. "Foreign direct investment in developing countries and growth: A selective survey," Journal of Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 34(1), pages 1-34.
    27. Niloy Bose & M. Emranul Haque & Denise R. Osborn, 2007. "Public Expenditure And Economic Growth: A Disaggregated Analysis For Developing Countries," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 75(5), pages 533-556, September.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Ramirez, M.D., 2009. "Public Capital Formation and Labor Productivity Growth in Argentina," Applied Econometrics and International Development, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 9(1).
    2. Miguel Ramirez, 2004. "Is public infrastructure spending productive in the Mexican case? A vector error correction analysis," The Journal of International Trade & Economic Development, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 13(2), pages 159-178.
    3. Miguel Ramirez & Zsófia Kőműves, 2014. "Economic Infrastructure, Private Capital Formation, and FDI Inflows to Hungary: A Unit Root and Cointegration Analysis with Structural Breaks," Atlantic Economic Journal, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 42(4), pages 367-382, December.
    4. Miguel Ramirez, 2013. "Is Foreign Direct Investment Beneficial for Mexico? A Cointegration Analysis, 1958-2010," Working Papers 1311, Trinity College, Department of Economics.
    5. Ramirez, Miguel D., 2008. "Are Foreign and Public Capital Productive in the Mexican Case? A Panel Unit Root and Panel Cointegration Analysis," Working Papers 49, Yale University, Department of Economics.
    6. Miguel D. Ramirez, 2023. "Do Remittances Promote Labor Productivity in Mexico? A DOLS and FMOLS Analysis, 1970-2017," Bulletin of Applied Economics, Risk Market Journals, vol. 10(1), pages 115-131.
    7. Miguel D. Ramirez, 2017. "Do Remittances Promote Labor Productivity Growth in Mexico? An Empirical Analysis, 1970-2014," Working Papers 1702, Trinity College, Department of Economics.
    8. Solarin, Sakiru Adebola & Shahbaz, Muhammad, 2015. "Natural gas consumption and economic growth: The role of foreign direct investment, capital formation and trade openness in Malaysia," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 835-845.
    9. Marcos José Dal Bianco, 2008. "Argentinean real exchange rate 1900-2006, test purchasing power parity theory," Estudios de Economia, University of Chile, Department of Economics, vol. 35(1 Year 20), pages 33-64, June.
    10. Fedderke, J.W. & Bogetic, Z., 2009. "Infrastructure and Growth in South Africa: Direct and Indirect Productivity Impacts of 19 Infrastructure Measures," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 37(9), pages 1522-1539, September.
    11. Sandy Suardi, 2010. "Nonstationarity, cointegration and structural breaks in the Australian term structure of interest rates," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 42(22), pages 2865-2879.
    12. Ramirez, Miguel D., 2006. "Is foreign direct investment beneficial for Mexico? An empirical analysis, 1960-2001," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 34(5), pages 802-817, May.
    13. Chor Foon Tang & Kean Siang Ch’ng, 2012. "A Multivariate Analysis of the Nexus between Savings and Economic Growth in the ASEAN-5 Economies," Margin: The Journal of Applied Economic Research, National Council of Applied Economic Research, vol. 6(3), pages 385-406, August.
    14. Brittle, Shane, 2009. "Ricardian Equivalence and the Efficacy of Fiscal Policy in Australia," Economics Working Papers wp09-10, School of Economics, University of Wollongong, NSW, Australia.
    15. Herzer, Dierk & Klasen, Stephan & Nowak-Lehmann D., Felicitas, 2008. "In search of FDI-led growth in developing countries: The way forward," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 25(5), pages 793-810, September.
    16. Chor Foon Tang & Ilhan Ozturk, 2017. "Can Inflation be Claimed as a Monetary Phenomenon? The Malaysian Experience," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 7(3), pages 453-460.
    17. Miguel D. Ramirez, 2014. "Remittances and Economic Growth in Mexico: An Empirical Study with Structural Breaks, 1970-2010," Business and Economic Research, Macrothink Institute, vol. 4(1), pages 351-373, June.
    18. Baharumshah, Ahmad Zubaidi & Lau, Evan & Fountas, Stilianos, 2003. "On the sustainability of current account deficits: evidence from four ASEAN countries," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(3), pages 465-487, June.
    19. Augustin Ntembe & Aloysius Ajab Amin & Regina Tawah, 2018. "Analysis of public investments and economic growth in Cameroon," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 42(3), pages 591-614, July.
    20. Masih, Rumi & Masih, Abul M. M., 1996. "Stock-Watson dynamic OLS (DOLS) and error-correction modelling approaches to estimating long- and short-run elasticities in a demand function: new evidence and methodological implications from an appl," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(4), pages 315-334, October.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • O10 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - General
    • O54 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - Latin America; Caribbean

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:tri:wpaper:1904. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Miguel Ramirez (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/edtrius.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.