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Public infrastructure and economic growth in Pakistan: a dynamic CGE-microsimulation analysis

Author

Listed:
  • Vaqar Ahmed
  • Ahsan Abbas
  • Saira Ahmed

Abstract

The role of infrastructure in economic growth and welfare has been studied extensively across the literature over the past three decades. We use a dynamic CGE model linked to a microsimulation model to estimate the macro-micro impact of public infrastructure investment. Two approaches to public investment are considered in our simulations. In the first, production taxes finance the additional public infrastructure investment and in the second, foreign borrowing provides resources. Our results reveal that public infrastructure investments have the same direction of impact whether funded by taxation or international borrowing, particularly when looking at macroeconomic gains and poverty reduction in the long run. However, in the very short run, tax financing puts a strain on output in the industrial sector and thus reduces economic growth in the short run. The financing from international borrowing has a Dutch disease-like impact in the short run, as indicated by a decline in exports.

Suggested Citation

  • Vaqar Ahmed & Ahsan Abbas & Saira Ahmed, 2013. "Public infrastructure and economic growth in Pakistan: a dynamic CGE-microsimulation analysis," Working Papers MPIA 2013-01, PEP-MPIA.
    • Handle: RePEc:lvl:mpiacr:2013-01
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    Cited by:

    1. Muhammad Zeshan, 2023. "Trade, Industry and Competition in Pakistan," PIDE-Working Papers 2023:15, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics.
    2. Marjit Sugata & Mandal Biswajit & Chatterjee Tonmoy, 2017. "Infrastructure Development Versus Direct Cash Transfer: A General Equilibrium Comparison," Review of Economics, De Gruyter, vol. 68(1), pages 63-74, April.
    3. Marjit, Sugata & Mandal, Biswajit & Chatterjee, Tonmoy, 2016. "Infrastructure Development vs Direct Cash Transfer: A General Equilibrium Comparison," MPRA Paper 73126, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Rimsha Irshad & Mehr-un-Nisa & Naghmana Ghafoor, 2023. "Infrastructure and Economic Growth: Evidence from Lower Middle-Income Countries," Journal of the Knowledge Economy, Springer;Portland International Center for Management of Engineering and Technology (PICMET), vol. 14(1), pages 161-179, March.
    5. Batool, Irem & Goldmann, Kathrin, 2021. "The role of public and private transport infrastructure capital in economic growth. Evidence from Pakistan," Research in Transportation Economics, Elsevier, vol. 88(C).
    6. Mohmand, Yasir Tariq & Mehmood, Fahad & Mughal, Khurrum Shahzad & Aslam, Faheem, 2021. "Investigating the causal relationship between transport infrastructure, economic growth and transport emissions in Pakistan," Research in Transportation Economics, Elsevier, vol. 88(C).
    7. Malik Muhammad & Mumtaz Anwar Chaudhry & Shabib Haider Syed & Mahwish Saeed, 2023. "Instability of government revenues and expenditures: implications for budget deficit in Pakistan," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 57(6), pages 4971-4983, December.
    8. Ahmed, Riaz, 2016. "Social infrastructure and productivity of manufacturing firms: Evidence from Pakistan," ZEW Discussion Papers 16-038, ZEW - Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research.
    9. Syed Shujaat AHMED & Asif JAVED, 2017. "The Effect of Public Sector Development Expenditures and Investment on Economic Growth: Evidence from Pakistan," Journal of Economics and Political Economy, KSP Journals, vol. 4(2), pages 203-214, June.
    10. Nagesh Kumar & Matthew Hammill & Selim Raihan & Swayamsiddha Panda, 2016. "Strategies for Achieving the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) in South Asia: Lessons from Policy Simulations," Development Papers 1601, United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific (ESCAP) South and South-West Asia Office.
    11. Muhammad Javid, 2019. "Public and Private Infrastructure Investment and Economic Growth in Pakistan: An Aggregate and Disaggregate Analysis," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(12), pages 1-22, June.
    12. Dmitriy, Skrypnik, 2020. "Инфраструктура И Экономический Рост. «Бюджетный Маневр» В России [Infrastructure and economic growth. "Budgetary maneuver" in Russia]," MPRA Paper 104920, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    13. Skrypnik, D., 2024. "Infrastructure and economic growth in the context of the evolutionary theory of economic policy," Journal of the New Economic Association, New Economic Association, vol. 62(1), pages 117-142.
    14. Muhammad Zeshan, 2025. "Balancing Trade and Competition in Pakistan," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 64(1), pages 25-52.
    15. Syed Shujaat AHMED & Asif JAVED, 2017. "The Effect of Public Sector Development Expenditures and Investment on Economic Growth: Evidence from Pakistan," Journal of Economics and Political Economy, EconSciences Journals, vol. 4(2), pages 203-214, June.
    16. Botero García, Jesús Alonso & Franco Gonzalez, Humberto & Hurtado Rendon, Alvaro & Arellano Morales, Matheo & MontañEz Herrera, Diego Fernando, 2020. "Fiscal sustainability, public expense and economic growth," Conference papers 333218, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.

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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • C68 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Computable General Equilibrium Models
    • E22 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Investment; Capital; Intangible Capital; Capacity
    • H54 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - Infrastructures
    • I38 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Welfare, Well-Being, and Poverty - - - Government Programs; Provision and Effects of Welfare Programs

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