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The Persistence of Poverty in Rural China: Applying an Ordered Probit and a Hazard Approach

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  • Glauben, Thomas
  • Herzfeld, Thomas
  • Wang, Xiaobing

Abstract

The present study investigates the analysis of poverty persistence of Chinese farm households in the well-off Zhejiang province in the southeast. We firstly apply an ordered probit model examining household, farm, and regional characteristics affecting the probability that households are chronically poor. In addition, we apply a hazard approach to identify the risk of falling into and climbing out of poverty. Results indicate that there are increasing chances to climb out of poverty over time, and that the risk of falling into poverty seems to decrease after the household spent some time outside poverty.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by International Association of Agricultural Economists in its series 2006 Annual Meeting, August 12-18, 2006, Queensland, Australia with number 25249.

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Date of creation: 2006
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Handle: RePEc:ags:iaae06:25249

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Keywords: Poverty persistence; China; rural population; hazard analysis; dynamics; Food Security and Poverty; C23; D1; I32; R29;

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  1. Jonathan Morduch & Terry Sicular, 2002. "Rethinking Inequality Decomposition, With Evidence from Rural China," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 112(476), pages 93-106, January.
  2. Francesco Devicienti, 2001. "Estimating Poverty Persistence in Britain," LABORatorio R. Revelli Working Papers Series 1, LABORatorio R. Revelli, Centre for Employment Studies.
  3. Jyotsna Jalan & Martin Ravallion, 1998. "Geographic Poverty Traps?," Boston University - Institute for Economic Development 86, Boston University, Institute for Economic Development.
  4. McCulloch, Neil & Calandrino, Michele, 2003. "Vulnerability and Chronic Poverty in Rural Sichuan," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 611-628, March.
  5. Ann Huff Stevens, 1995. "Climbing Out of Poverty, Falling Back In: Measuring the Persistence of Poverty over Multiple Spells," NBER Working Papers 5390, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  6. Hansen, Jörgen & Wahlberg, Roger, 2004. "Poverty Persistence in Sweden," CEPR Discussion Papers 4539, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  7. Jyotsna Jalan & Martin Ravallion, 2000. "Is transient poverty different? Evidence for rural China," Journal of Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 36(6), pages 82-99.
  8. Stevens, Ann Huff, 1994. "The Dynamics of Poverty Spells: Updating Bane and Ellwood," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 84(2), pages 34-37, May.
  9. Jarvis, Sarah & Jenkins, Stephen P, 1998. "How Much Income Mobility Is There in Britain?," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 108(447), pages 428-43, March.
  10. Jalan, Jyotsna & Ravallion, Martin, 1998. "Transient Poverty in Postreform Rural China," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 26(2), pages 338-357, June.
  11. Hansen, Jörgen & Wahlberg, Roger, 2004. "Poverty Persistence in Sweden," IZA Discussion Papers 1209, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
  12. Lorenzo Cappellari & Stephen P. Jemkins, 2002. "Who Stays Poor? Who Becomes Poor? Evidence from the British Household Panel Survey," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 112(478), pages C60-C67, March.
  13. Mary Jo Bane & David T. Ellwood, 1986. "Slipping into and out of Poverty: The Dynamics of Spells," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 21(1), pages 1-23.
  14. Gottschald, Peter T, 1982. "Earnings Mobility: Permanent Change or Transitory Fluctuations," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 64(3), pages 450-56, August.
  15. Jenkins, Stephen P, 1995. "Easy Estimation Methods for Discrete-Time Duration Models," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 57(1), pages 129-38, February.
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Cited by:
  1. Bogale, Ayalneh & Korf, Benedikt, 2009. "Analysis of poverty and its covariates among smallholder farmers in the eastern Hararghe highlands of Ethiopia," 2009 Conference, August 16-22, 2009, Beijing, China 51469, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
  2. Katsushi Imai & Jin You, 2012. "Poverty Dynamics of Households in Rural China: Identifying Multiple Pathways for Poverty Transition," The School of Economics Discussion Paper Series 1203, Economics, The University of Manchester.

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