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Estimating poverty persistence in Britain

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  • Francesco Devicienti

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Abstract

This paper uses longitudinal data from the BHPS, waves 1-8, to document low-income dynamics and persistence for individuals living in Britain in the 1990s. Poverty exit and re-entry rates are estimated and the resulting distribution of time spent in poverty is calculated, both in single and in multiple-spells frameworks. Following Stevens (1999), I estimate a multiple-spell model of transitions in and out of poverty, controlling for observed and correlated unobserved individual heterogeneity and for a potential initial condition problem. Both hazard rate and components-of-variance models are used to predict the number of years in poverty for various subgroups of the populations.

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File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1007/s00181-010-0350-2
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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Springer in its journal Empirical Economics.

Volume (Year): 40 (2011)
Issue (Month): 3 (May)
Pages: 657-686

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Handle: RePEc:spr:empeco:v:40:y:2011:i:3:p:657-686

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Related research

Keywords: Poverty persistence; Hazard models; Multiple spells; Unobserved heterogeneity; Variance-components models; I32; C33; C41;

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References

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  1. Lorenzo Cappellari & Stephen P. Jenkins, 2008. "The Dynamics of Social Assistance Receipt: Measurement and Modelling Issues, with an Application to Britain," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 828, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
  2. Simon Burgess & Carol Propper, 1998. "An economic model of household income dynamics, with an application to poverty dynamics among American women," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 6525, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
  3. Ann Huff Stevens, 1995. "Climbing Out of Poverty, Falling Back In: Measuring the Persistence of Poverty over Multiple Spells," NBER Working Papers 5390, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  4. Dickens, Richard, 2000. "The Evolution of Individual Male Earnings in Great Britain: 1975-95," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 110(460), pages 27-49, January.
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  7. Heckman, James & Singer, Burton, 1984. "A Method for Minimizing the Impact of Distributional Assumptions in Econometric Models for Duration Data," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 52(2), pages 271-320, March.
  8. Ondrich, Jan & Rhody, Stephen E., 1999. "Multiple spells in the Prentice-Gloeckler-Meyer likelihood with unobserved heterogeneity," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 63(2), pages 139-144, May.
  9. Fertig, Michael & Tamm, Marcus, 2007. "Always Poor or Never Poor and Nothing in Between? Duration of Child Poverty in Germany," IZA Discussion Papers 2645, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
  10. Baker, Michael, 1997. "Growth-Rate Heterogeneity and the Covariance Structure of Life-Cycle Earnings," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 15(2), pages 338-75, April.
  11. Joseph G. Altonji & Lewis M. Segal, 1994. "Small Sample Bias in GMM Estimation of Covariance Structures," NBER Technical Working Papers 0156, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  12. Francesco Devicienti, 2001. "Estimating Poverty Persistence in Britain," LABORatorio R. Revelli Working Papers Series 1, LABORatorio R. Revelli, Centre for Employment Studies.
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  14. Francesco Devicienti, 2002. "Poverty persistence in Britain: A multivariate analysis using the BHPS, 1991–1997," Journal of Economics, Springer, vol. 9(1), pages 307-340, December.
  15. John M. Abowd & David Card, 1986. "On the Covariance Structure of Earnings and Hours Changes," NBER Working Papers 1832, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  16. Meyer, Bruce D, 1990. "Unemployment Insurance and Unemployment Spells," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 58(4), pages 757-82, July.
  17. Lorenzo Cappellari & Stephen P. Jemkins, 2002. "Who Stays Poor? Who Becomes Poor? Evidence from the British Household Panel Survey," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 112(478), pages C60-C67, March.
  18. Mary Jo Bane & David T. Ellwood, 1986. "Slipping into and out of Poverty: The Dynamics of Spells," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 21(1), pages 1-23.
  19. MaCurdy, Thomas E., 1982. "The use of time series processes to model the error structure of earnings in a longitudinal data analysis," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 18(1), pages 83-114, January.
  20. Costas Meghir & Whitehouse, E, 1995. "Labour market transitions and retirement of men in the UK," IFS Working Papers W95/10, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
  21. Hansen, Jörgen & Wahlberg, Roger, 2004. "Poverty Persistence in Sweden," IZA Discussion Papers 1209, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
  22. Cappellari, Lorenzo, 2000. "The Covariance Structure of Italian Male Wages," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 68(6), pages 659-84, December.
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  24. Lorenzo Cappellari & Stephen P. Jenkins, 2004. "Modelling low income transitions," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 19(5), pages 593-610.
  25. Hansen, Jörgen & Wahlberg, Roger, 2004. "Poverty Persistence in Sweden," CEPR Discussion Papers 4539, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  26. Jenkins, Stephen P, 1995. "Easy Estimation Methods for Discrete-Time Duration Models," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 57(1), pages 129-38, February.
  27. Martin Biewen, 2002. "The Covariance Structure of East and West German Incomes and its Implications for the Persistence of Poverty and Inequality," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 292, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
  28. Bradbury,Bruce & Jenkins,Stephen P. & Micklewright,John (ed.), 2001. "The Dynamics of Child Poverty in Industrialised Countries," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521803106, October.
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  30. Bradbury,Bruce & Jenkins,Stephen P. & Micklewright,John (ed.), 2001. "The Dynamics of Child Poverty in Industrialised Countries," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521004923, October.
  31. Xavier Ramos, 2003. "The Covariance Structure of Earnings in Great Britain, 1991-1999," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 70(278), pages 353-374, 05.
  32. Gottschalk, Peter & Moffitt, Robert A, 1994. "Welfare Dependence: Concepts, Measures, and Trends," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 84(2), pages 38-42, May.
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  35. Sarah Jarvis & Stephen P. Jenkins, 1997. "Low income dynamics in 1990s Britain," Fiscal Studies, Institute for Fiscal Studies, vol. 18(2), pages 123-142, May.
  36. Böheim, René & Taylor, Mark P, 2000. "Unemployment Duration and Exit States in Britain," CEPR Discussion Papers 2500, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  37. Ham, John C & LaLonde, Robert J, 1996. "The Effect of Sample Selection and Initial Conditions in Duration Models: Evidence from Experimental Data on Training," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 64(1), pages 175-205, January.
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