Estimating Poverty Persistence in Britain

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Estimating Poverty Persistence in Britain

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Devicienti, Francesco (LABORatorio Riccardo Revelli)

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Francesco Devicienti

Abstract

This paper uses longitudinal data from the BHPS, waves 1-8, to document low-income dynamics and persistence for individuals living in Britain in the 1990s. Poverty exit and re-entry rates are estimated and the resulting distribution of time spent in poverty is calculated, both in single and in multiple-spells frameworks. Following Stevens (1999), I estimate a multiple-spell model of transitions in and out of poverty, controlling for observed and correlated unobserved individual heterogeneity and for a potential initial condition problem. Both hazard rate and components-of-variance models are used to predict the number of years in poverty for various subgroups of the populations.

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Paper provided by Royal Economic Society in its series Royal Economic Society Annual Conference 2002 with number 61.

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Date of creation: 29 Aug 2002
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Handle: RePEc:ecj:ac2002:61

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Paper
- Francesco Devicienti, 2001. "Estimating Poverty Persistence in Britain," LABORatorio R. Revelli Working Papers Series 1, LABORatorio R. Revelli, Centre for Employment Studies. [Downloadable!]
- Francesco Devicienti, 2001. "Estimating Poverty Persistence in Britain," 10th International Conference on Panel Data, Berlin, July 5-6, 2002 B2-3, International Conferences on Panel Data. [Downloadable!]

This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

NEP-ALL-2002-07-08 (All new papers)

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

Bourguignon, F. & Morrisson, C. & Atkinson, A.B., 1991. "Empirical Studies of Earnings Mobility," DELTA Working Papers 91-14, DELTA (Ecole normale supérieure).
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Böheim, René & Taylor, Mark P, 2000. "Unemployment Duration and Exit States in Britain," CEPR Discussion Papers 2500, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Other versions:
- René Böheim & Mark P. Taylor, 2000. "Unemployment duration and exit states in Britain," ILR working papers 050, Institute for Labour Research. [Downloadable!]
Meyer, Bruce D, 1990. "Unemployment Insurance and Unemployment Spells," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 58(4), pages 757-82, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Other versions:
- Bruce D. Meyer, 1991. "Unemployment Insurance And Unemployment Spells," NBER Working Papers 2546, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Ondrich, Jan & Rhody, Stephen E., 1999. "Multiple spells in the Prentice-Gloeckler-Meyer likelihood with unobserved heterogeneity," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 63(2), pages 139-144, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Meghir, Costas & Whitehouse, Edward, 1997. "Labour market transitions and retirement of men in the UK," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 79(2), pages 327-354, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Other versions:
- Costas Meghir & Whitehouse, E, 1995. "Labour market transitions and retirement of men in the UK," IFS Working Papers W95/10, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
- Costas Meghir & Edward Whitehouse, 1993. "Labour market transitions and retirement of men in the UK," IFS Working Papers W93/12, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
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Other versions:
- Simon Burgess & Carol Propper, 1998. "An Economic Model of Household Income Dynamics, with an Application to Poverty Dynamics among American Women," CASE Papers 09, Centre for Analysis of Social Exclusion, LSE. [Downloadable!]
Gottschalk, Peter & Moffitt, Robert A, 1994. "Welfare Dependence: Concepts, Measures, and Trends," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 84(2), pages 38-42, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Flinn, Christopher J & Heckman, James J, 1983. "Are Unemployment and Out of the Labor Force Behaviorally Distinct Labor Force States?," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 1(1), pages 28-42, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Other versions:
- Christopher J. Flinn & James J. Heckman, 1982. "Are Unemployment and Out of the Labor Force Behaviorally Distinct Labor Force States?," NBER Working Papers 0979, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Abowd, John M & Card, David, 1989. "On the Covariance Structure of Earnings and Hours Changes," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(2), pages 411-45, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Other versions:
- John M. Abowd & David Card, 1986. "On the Covariance Structure of Earnings and Hours Changes," NBER Working Papers 1832, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Jenkins, Stephen P, 1995. "Easy Estimation Methods for Discrete-Time Duration Models," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 57(1), pages 129-38, February.
Ann Huff Stevens, 1995. "Climbing Out of Poverty, Falling Back In: Measuring the Persistence of Poverty over Multiple Spells," NBER Working Papers 5390, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Ham, John C & LaLonde, Robert J, 1996. "The Effect of Sample Selection and Initial Conditions in Duration Models: Evidence from Experimental Data on Training," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 64(1), pages 175-205, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Stephen P. Jenkins, 2000. "Modelling household income dynamics," Journal of Population Economics, Springer, vol. 13(4), pages 529-567. [Downloadable!] (restricted)

Full references

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

Michael Fertig & Marcus Tamm, 2007. "Always Poor or Never Poor and Nothing in Between? Duration of Child Poverty in Germany," RWI Discussion Papers 0056, Rheinisch-Westfälisches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung. [Downloadable!]
Other versions:
- Michael Fertig & Marcus Tamm, 2007. "Always Poor or Never Poor and Nothing in Between? Duration of Child Poverty in Germany," IZA Discussion Papers 2645, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA). [Downloadable!]
- Michael Fertig & Marcus Tamm, 2007. "Always Poor or Never Poor and Nothing in Between? Duration of Child Poverty in Germany," Working Papers 65, ECINEQ, Society for the Study of Economic Inequality. [Downloadable!]
- Michael Fertig & Marcus Tamm, 2007. "Always Poor or Never Poor and Nothing in Between? Duration of Child Poverty in Germany," Working Papers 59, ECINEQ, Society for the Study of Economic Inequality. [Downloadable!]
Francesco Devicienti & Valentina Gualtieri, 2007. "The Dynamics and Persistence of Poverty: Evidence from Italy," LABORatorio R. Revelli Working Papers Series 63, LABORatorio R. Revelli, Centre for Employment Studies. [Downloadable!]
Martin Biewen, 2002. "The Covariance Structure of East and West German Incomes and its Implications for the Persistence of Poverty and Inequality," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 292, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research. [Downloadable!]
Other versions:
- Biewen, Martin, 2002. "The Covariance Structure of East and West German Incomes and its Implications for the Persistence of Poverty and Inequality," IZA Discussion Papers 459, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA). [Downloadable!]
- Martin Biewen, 2005. "The Covariance Structure of East and West German Incomes and its Implications for the Persistence of Poverty and Inequality," German Economic Review, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 6(4), pages 445-469, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Lorenzo Cappellari & Stephen P. Jenkins, 2004. "Modelling low income transitions," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 19(5), pages 593-610. [Downloadable!]
Other versions:
- Lorenzo Cappellari & Stephen P. Jenkins, 2002. "Modelling Low Income Transitions," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 288, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research. [Downloadable!]
- Cappellari, Lorenzo & Jenkins, Stephen P., 2002. "Modelling Low Income Transitions," IZA Discussion Papers 504, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA). [Downloadable!]
Biewen, Martin, 2003. "Who Are the Chronic Poor? Evidence on the Extent and the Composition of Chronic Poverty in Germany," IZA Discussion Papers 779, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA). [Downloadable!]
Other versions:
- Martin Biewen, 2003. "Who Are the Chronic Poor? : Evidence on the Extent and the Composition of Chronic Poverty in Germany," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 350, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research. [Downloadable!]
Anna Giraldo & Enrico Rettore & Ugo Trivellato, 2002. "The persistence of poverty: true state dependence or unobserved heterogeneity? Some evidence from the Italian Survey on Household Income and Wealth," 10th International Conference on Panel Data, Berlin, July 5-6, 2002 B2-1, International Conferences on Panel Data. [Downloadable!]
Hansen, orgen & Wahlberg, Roger, 2004. "Poverty Persistence in Sweden," IZA Discussion Papers 1209, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA). [Downloadable!]

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This page was last updated on 2008-8-3.

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