Poverty Dynamics of Households in Rural China: Identifying Multiple Pathways for Poverty Transition
AbstractThe objective of our study is to identify pattern and causes of households' transitions in and out of poverty using the long household panel data on rural China in the period 1989-2009. We propose a discrete-time multi-spell duration model that not only corrects for correlated unobserved heterogeneity across transitions and various destinations within the transition, but also addresses the endogeneity due to dynamic selection associated with household's livelihood strategies. Duration dependence is generally found to be negative for both poverty exit and re-entry. The household who chose either farming or out-migration as a main livelihood strategy was more likely to escape from this persistent poverty than those who took local non-agricultural employment, while the role of social protection, such as health insurance, was not universally good for alleviating chronic poverty. Overall, the present study emphasises the central role of agriculture in helping the chronically poor escape from poverty.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Economics, The University of Manchester in its series The School of Economics Discussion Paper Series with number 1203.
Date of creation: 2012
Date of revision:
Contact details of provider:
Postal: Manchester M13 9PL
Phone: (0)161 275 4868
Fax: (0)161 275 4812
Web page: http://www.socialsciences.manchester.ac.uk/subjects/economics/
More information through EDIRC
Other versions of this item:
- Katsushi S. Imai & Jing You, 2011. "Poverty Dynamics of Households in Rural China: Identifying Multiple Pathways for Poverty Transition," Discussion Paper Series DP2011-35, Research Institute for Economics & Business Administration, Kobe University.
- C33 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
- C41 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics - - - Duration Analysis; Optimal Timing Strategies
- I32 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Welfare, Well-Being, and Poverty - - - Measurement and Analysis of Poverty
- O15 - Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Economic Development: Human Resources; Human Development; Income Distribution; Migration
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Dwayne Benjamin & Loren Brandt & John Giles, 2003.
"The Evolution of Income Inequality in Rural China,"
benjamin-04-01, University of Toronto, Department of Economics.
- Jin, Songqing & Deininger, Klaus, 2009.
"Land rental markets in the process of rural structural transformation: Productivity and equity impacts from China,"
Journal of Comparative Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 37(4), pages 629-646, December.
- Jin, Songqing & Deininger, Klaus W., 2007. "Land Rental Markets in the Process of Rural Structural Transformation: Productivity and Equity Impacts from China," 2007 Annual Meeting, July 29-August 1, 2007, Portland, Oregon TN 9932, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
- Jikun Huang & Yunhua Wu & Scott Rozelle, 2009. "Moving off the farm and intensifying agricultural production in Shandong: a case study of rural labor market linkages in China," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 40(2), pages 203-218, 03.
- Heckman, James & Singer, Burton, 1984. "A Method for Minimizing the Impact of Distributional Assumptions in Econometric Models for Duration Data," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 52(2), pages 271-320, March.
- Wagstaff, Adam & Lindelow, Magnus, 2005.
"Can insurance increase financial risk ? The curious case of health insurance in China,"
Policy Research Working Paper Series
3741, The World Bank.
- Wagstaff, Adam & Lindelow, Magnus, 2008. "Can insurance increase financial risk?: The curious case of health insurance in China," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 27(4), pages 990-1005, July.
- Montalvo, Jose G. & Ravallion, Martin, 2010.
"The pattern of growth and poverty reduction in China,"
Journal of Comparative Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 38(1), pages 2-16, March.
- Montalvo, Jose G. & Ravallion, Martin, 2009. "The pattern of growth and poverty reduction in China," Policy Research Working Paper Series 5069, The World Bank.
- Alan de Brauw & John Giles, 2005.
"Migrant Opportunity and the Educational Attainment of Youth in Rural China,"
Department of Economics Working Papers
2005-05, Department of Economics, Williams College.
- de Brauw, Alan & Giles, John T., 2006. "Migrant Opportunity and the Educational Attainment of Youth in Rural China," IZA Discussion Papers 2326, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
- de Brauw, Alan & Giles, John, 2008. "Migrant opportunity and the educational attainment of youth in rural China," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4526, The World Bank.
- Lorenzo Cappellari & Stephen P. Jemkins, 2002. "Who Stays Poor? Who Becomes Poor? Evidence from the British Household Panel Survey," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 112(478), pages C60-C67, March.
- Christiaensen, Luc & Pan,Lei & Wang, Sangui, 2010. "Drivers of Poverty Reduction in Lagging Regions: Evidence from Rural Western China," Working Paper Series UNU-WIDER Working Paper W, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
- Christopher B. Barrett & Michael R. Carter & C. Peter Timmer, 2010. "A Century-Long Perspective on Agricultural Development," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 92(2), pages 447-468.
- Christiaensen, Luc & Todo, Yasuyuki, 2013.
"Poverty reduction during the rural-urban transformation : the role of the missing middle,"
Policy Research Working Paper Series
6445, The World Bank.
- Christiaensen, Luc J.M. & Todo, Yasuyuki, 2009. "Poverty Reduction during the Rural-Urban Transformation - The Role of the Missing Middle," 2009 Conference, August 16-22, 2009, Beijing, China 51467, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
- Olga Canto, 2002. "Climbing out of poverty, falling back in: low income stability in Spain," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 34(15), pages 1903-1916.
- Duclos, Jean-Yves & Araar, Abdelkrim & Giles, John, 2010.
"Chronic and transient poverty: Measurement and estimation, with evidence from China,"
Journal of Development Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 91(2), pages 266-277, March.
- Duclos, Jean-Yves & Araar, Abdelkrim & Giles, John T., 2006. "Chronic and Transient Poverty: Measurement and Estimation, with Evidence from China," IZA Discussion Papers 2078, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
- Jean-Yves Duclos & Abdelkrim Araar & John Giles, 2006. "Chronic and Transient Poverty: Measurement and Estimation, with Evidence from China," Cahiers de recherche 0611, CIRPEE.
- Jean-Yves Duclos & Abdelkrim Araaryand & John Giles, 2006. "Chronic and Transient Poverty: Measurement and Estimation, with Evidence from China," Working Papers 35, ECINEQ, Society for the Study of Economic Inequality.
- Jalan, Jyotsna & Ravallion, Martin, 1998. "Transient Poverty in Postreform Rural China," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 26(2), pages 338-357, June.
- Stefan Dercon, 2009.
"Rural Poverty: Old Challenges in New Contexts,"
World Bank Research Observer,
World Bank Group, vol. 24(1), pages 1-28, April.
- Jones-Smith, Jessica C. & Popkin, Barry M., 2010. "Understanding community context and adult health changes in China: Development of an urbanicity scale," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 71(8), pages 1436-1446, October.
- Stephen V. Cameron & James J. Heckman, 1998. "Life Cycle Schooling and Dynamic Selection Bias: Models and Evidence for Five Cohorts of American Males," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 106(2), pages 262-333, April.
- Alain de Janvry & Elisabeth Sadoulet, 2010. "Agricultural Growth and Poverty Reduction: Additional Evidence," World Bank Research Observer, World Bank Group, vol. 25(1), pages 1-20, February.
- Lin, Justin Yifu, 1992. "Rural Reforms and Agricultural Growth in China," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 82(1), pages 34-51, March.
- Devicienti, Francesco, 2002.
"Estimating Poverty Persistence in Britain,"
Royal Economic Society Annual Conference 2002
61, Royal Economic Society.
- Francesco Devicienti, 2001. "Estimating Poverty Persistence in Britain," LABORatorio R. Revelli Working Papers Series 1, LABORatorio R. Revelli, Centre for Employment Studies.
- Francesco Devicienti, 2001. "Estimating Poverty Persistence in Britain," 10th International Conference on Panel Data, Berlin, July 5-6, 2002 B2-3, International Conferences on Panel Data.
- David Clark & David Hulme, 2010. "Poverty, time and vagueness: integrating the core poverty and chronic poverty frameworks," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 34(2), pages 347-366, March.
- Francesco Devicienti, 2002.
"Poverty persistence in Britain: A multivariate analysis using the BHPS, 1991–1997,"
Journal of Economics,
Springer, vol. 9(1), pages 307-340, December.
- Bigsten, Arne & Shimeles, Abebe, 2008. "Poverty Transition and Persistence in Ethiopia: 1994-2004," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 36(9), pages 1559-1584, September.
- Bob Baulch & John Hoddinott, 2000. "Economic mobility and poverty dynamics in developing countries," Journal of Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 36(6), pages 1-24.
- Du, Yang & Park, Albert & Wang, Sangui, 2005. "Migration and rural poverty in China," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(4), pages 688-709, December.
- Glauben, Thomas & Herzfeld, Thomas & Wang, Xiaobing, 2006. "The Persistence of Poverty in Rural China: Applying an Ordered Probit and a Hazard Approach," 2006 Annual Meeting, August 12-18, 2006, Queensland, Australia 25249, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
- Marjan, MAES, 2008. "Poverty persistence among Belgian elderly in the transition from work to retirement : an empirical analysis," Discussion Papers (ECON - DÃ©partement des Sciences Economiques) 2008042, Université catholique de Louvain, Département des Sciences Economiques.
- Jyotsna Jalan & Martin Ravallion, 2000. "Is transient poverty different? Evidence for rural China," Journal of Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 36(6), pages 82-99.
- Björn Gustafsson & Ding Sai, 2009. "Temporary And Persistent Poverty Among Ethnic Minorities And The Majority In Rural China," Review of Income and Wealth, International Association for Research in Income and Wealth, vol. 55(s1), pages 588-606, 07.
- McCulloch, Neil & Calandrino, Michele, 2003. "Vulnerability and Chronic Poverty in Rural Sichuan," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 611-628, March.
- Gustafsson, Bjorn & Li, Shi, 2004. "Expenditures on education and health care and poverty in rural China," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 15(3), pages 292-301.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Marianne Sensier).
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.