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Modelling Trends in Food Market Integration: Method and an Application to Tanzanian Maize Markets

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Author Info
van Campenhout, Bjorn

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Abstract

Pushed by increasing availability of price data and extensive market liberalisation efforts in many developing countries, research on food market integration has evolved rapidly over the last two decades. Empirical methods to measure market integration diverged in two directions: on the one hand, there is the Parity Bounds Model (PBM), while on the other hand the use of Threshold Autoregressive (TAR) Models has been proposed. This article provides a discussion of the two methods and argues that TAR models are more able to capture the dynamics of the arbitrage process underlying interconnected markets. Furthermore, we extend the standard TAR model to include a time trend in both the threshold and the adjustment parameter. Using weekly maize price data on seven selected markets in Tanzania, we illustrate how both transaction cost and the speed of adjustment have changed during the nineties.

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Paper provided by European Association of Agricultural Economists in its series 2005 International Congress, August 23-27, 2005, Copenhagen, Denmark with number 24718.

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Date of creation: 2005
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Handle: RePEc:ags:eaae05:24718

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Related research
Keywords: market integration; transaction costs; thresholds; maize; Tanzania; Agribusiness; F15; O18;

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Deaton, Angus & Laroque, Guy, 1992. "On the Behaviour of Commodity Prices," Review of Economic Studies, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 59(1), pages 1-23, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  2. Maurice Obstfeld & Alan M. Taylor, 1997. "Nonlinear Aspects of Goods-Market Arbitrage and Adjustment: Heckscher's Commodity Points Revisited," NBER Working Papers 6053, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  3. Fackler, Paul L. & Goodwin, Barry K., 2001. "Spatial price analysis," Handbook of Agricultural Economics, in: B. L. Gardner & G. C. Rausser (ed.), Handbook of Agricultural Economics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 17, pages 971-1024 Elsevier. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Mancuso, Anthony J. & Goodwin, Barry K. & Grennes, Thomas J., 2003. "Nonlinear aspects of capital market integration and real interest rate equalization," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 12(3), pages 283-303. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Barrett, Christopher B & Li, Jau Rong, 2002. " Distinguishing between Equilibrium and Integration in Spatial Price Analysis," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, American Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 84(2), pages 292-307, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Kling, Catherine & Sexton, Richard & Carman, Hoy, 1999. "Market Integration, Efficiency of Arbitrage, and Imperfect Competition: Methodology and Application to U.S. Celery," Staff General Research Papers 1609, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
  7. Jayne, T. S. & Jones, Stephen, 1997. "Food marketing and pricing policy in Eastern and Southern Africa: A survey," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 25(9), pages 1505-1527, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Goodwin, Barry K & Piggott, Nicholas E, 2001. " Spatial Market Integration in the Presence of Threshold Effects," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, American Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 83(2), pages 302-17, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Fafchamps, Marcel & Gavian, Sarah, 1996. "The Spatial Integration of Livestock Markets in Niger," Journal of African Economies, Oxford University Press, vol. 5(3), pages 366-405, October.
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  1. David Tschirley & T.S. Jayne, 2008. "Food Crises and Food Markets: Implications for Emergency Response in Southern Africa," International Development Working Papers 94, Department of Agricultural Economics, Michigan State University. [Downloadable!]
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  2. Ihle, Rico & Cramon-Taubadel, Stephan von, 2008. "A Comparison of Threshold Cointegration and Markov-Switching Vector Error Correction Models in Price Transmission Analysis," 2008 Conference, April 21-22, 2008, St. Louis, Missouri 37603, NCCC-134 Conference on Applied Commodity Price Analysis, Forecasting, and Market Risk Management. [Downloadable!]
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