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Who gains and who loses from China’s growth?

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  • Cheptea, Angela

Abstract

Recent trade evolutions credit China with a large and growing market potential, and explain the increasing attractiveness of the Chinese market to foreign producers. In 2007 one tenth of internationally traded products were shipped to China. The present paper aims to determine the countries that profit and suffer the most from the recent expansion of the Chinese market. We use an econometric shift-share methodology that permits to identify for each trade flow the share of growth arising from the capacity to target the products and markets with the highest increase in demand, and the share due exclusively to exporter's performance. Export dynamics specific to each country (exporter) are estimated for the Chinese market and compared to those of the global market, for all internationally traded products and agri-food products alone. We estimate the contribution of countries' geographical and sectoral structure, and their export performance to the evolution of their market shares, and differentiate between changes in export volumes and prices.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by European Association of Agricultural Economists in its series 131st Seminar, September 18-19, 2012, Prague, Czech Republic with number 135788.

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Date of creation: 18 Sep 2012
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Handle: RePEc:ags:eaa131:135788

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Keywords: International trade; Export performance; Market shares; Shift-Share; China; Agribusiness; Agricultural and Food Policy;

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References

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  1. Angela Cheptea, 2012. "Who gains and who loses from China’s growth?," Working Papers SMART - LERECO 12-03, INRA UMR SMART.
  2. Athanasoglou, Panayiotis & Backinezos, Constantina & Georgiou, Evangelia, 2010. "Export performance, competitiveness and commodity composition," MPRA Paper 31997, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  3. João Amador & Sónia Cabral, 2008. "The Portuguese Export Performance in Perspective: A Constant Market Share Analysis," Economic Bulletin and Financial Stability Report Articles, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
  4. Andrea Finicelli & Massimo Sbracia & Andrea Zaghini, 2011. "A disaggregated analysis of the export performance of some industrial and emerging countries," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 8(1), pages 93-113, April.
  5. Lionel Fontagné & Guillaume Gaulier & Soledad Zignago, 2007. "Specialisation across Varieties within Products and North-South Competition," Working Papers 2007-06, CEPII research center.
  6. Fagerberg, Jan, 1988. "International Competitiveness: Errata," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 98(393), pages 1203, December.
  7. Angela Cheptea & Lionel Fontagné & Soledad Zignago, 2012. "European Export Performance," Working Papers 2012-19, CEPII research center.
  8. Keld Laursen, 1996. "The Impact of Technological Opportunity on the Dynamics of Trade Performance," DRUID Working Papers 96-12, DRUID, Copenhagen Business School, Department of Industrial Economics and Strategy/Aalborg University, Department of Business Studies.
  9. Brenton, Paul & Newfarmer, Richard, 2007. "Watching more than the Discovery channel : export cycles and diversification in development," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4302, The World Bank.
  10. Angela Cheptea & Guillaume Gaulier & Soledad Zignago, 2005. "World Trade Competitiveness: A Disaggregated View by Shift-Share Analysis," Working Papers 2005-23, CEPII research center.
  11. Guillaume Gaulier & Soledad Zignago, 2010. "BACI: International Trade Database at the Product-Level. The 1994-2007 Version," Working Papers 2010-23, CEPII research center.
  12. Fagerberg, Jan, 1988. "International Competitiveness," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 98(391), pages 355-74, June.
  13. Cafiso, Gianluca, 2009. "The Export Performance of the Euro Area countries in the period 1996-2007," MPRA Paper 20263, University Library of Munich, Germany.
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Cited by:
  1. Cheptea, Angela, 2011. "Who Gains and Who Loses from China's Growth?," 2011 International Congress, August 30-September 2, 2011, Zurich, Switzerland 114299, European Association of Agricultural Economists.

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