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Une analyse de la dynamique des exportations des sociétés françaises de 2000 à 2009

Author

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  • Guillaume Gaulier
  • Vincent Vicard
  • Lionel Fontagné
  • Jean-Charles Bricongne
  • Dimitri Bellas

Abstract

Plus que la forte baisse du nombre de sociétés exportatrices observée en 2009, qui n'est d'ailleurs pas la plus forte des années 2000, c'est la diminution de l'intensité des flux préexistants à la crise (désignés dans la littérature par le terme de " marge intensive ") qui explique la plus grande partie de la chute des exportations en 2009, pendant la crise du commerce. Les grands exportateurs réagissent en réduisant leur flux d'exportation, mais ils restent présents sur leurs principaux marchés, si bien que la marge intensive représente une part des évolutions totales encore plus importante qu'en période de croissance pendant cette première décennie. À l'inverse, la diminution du nombre de flux d'exportation concerne majoritairement les petits exportateurs. Une analyse structurelle-résiduelle indique une sous-performance à l'exportation des petits exportateurs depuis 2001. Il ressort de l'analyse de la composition sectorielle et géographique des exportations françaises que les tendances des exportations selon le marché constatées jusqu'en 2007 ont peu de rapport avec les évolutions enregistrées sur ces marchés en 2009 : la crise n'a pas forcément pénalisé les secteurs les moins dynamiques antérieurement, et les destinations auparavant les plus attractives se sont parfois avérées les plus touchées. Enfin, la réponse à la demande étrangère adressée à la France est variable selon les marges considérées, les marges intensive et extensive produit étant les plus corrélées à cette demande. Ceci est d'autant plus vrai que les exportateurs sont grands. Par ailleurs, les performances des filiales de groupes français semblent davantage corrélées au cycle français, alors que les filiales de groupes étrangers seraient plus sensibles à la conjoncture internationale.
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Suggested Citation

  • Guillaume Gaulier & Vincent Vicard & Lionel Fontagné & Jean-Charles Bricongne & Dimitri Bellas, 2010. "Une analyse de la dynamique des exportations des sociétés françaises de 2000 à 2009," Économie et Statistique, Programme National Persée, vol. 438(1), pages 239-265.
    • Handle: RePEc:prs:ecstat:estat_0336-1454_2010_num_438_1_9605
    DOI: 10.3406/estat.2010.9605
    Note: DOI:10.3406/estat.2010.9605
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    1. Charlotte Emlinger & Sébastien Jean & Vincent Vicard, 2019. "L’étonnante atonie des exportations françaises : retour sur la compétitivité et ses déterminants," CEPII Policy Brief 2019-24, CEPII research center.

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