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Who gains and who loses from China’s growth?

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  • Angela Cheptea

Abstract

Emerging countries have been winning large market shares since the early 1990s. Among these, China stands out with the most remarkable performance: it almost tripled its world market share becoming a leading exporter, second only to EU 27. Products exported by China incorporate, however, a large share of foreign inputs. By 2007 one tenth of internationally traded products were shipped to China. These recent evolutions reveal the large and growing domestic market potential and explain the increasing attractiveness of the Chinese market to foreign producers. The present paper attempts to identify the countries that profit and suffer the most from the recent expansion of the Chinese market. I use an econometric shift-share methodology that permits to identify for each trade flow the share of growth arising from the capacity to target the products and markets with the highest increase in demand, and the share due exclusively to exporter's performance.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by INRA UMR SMART in its series Working Papers SMART - LERECO with number 12-03.

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Length: 40 pages
Date of creation: 2012
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:rae:wpaper:201203

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Keywords: international trade; export performance; market shares; shift-share; China;

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References

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  1. Athanasoglou, Panayiotis & Backinezos, Constantina & Georgiou, Evangelia, 2010. "Export performance, competitiveness and commodity composition," MPRA Paper 31997, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  2. Angela Cheptea, 2012. "Who gains and who loses from China’s growth?," Working Papers SMART - LERECO 12-03, INRA UMR SMART.
  3. Brenton, Paul & Newfarmer, Richard, 2007. "Watching more than the Discovery channel : export cycles and diversification in development," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4302, The World Bank.
  4. Cheptea, A. & Fontagné, L. & Zignago, S., 2012. "European Export Performance," Working papers 393, Banque de France.
  5. Guillaume Gaulier & Soledad Zignago, 2010. "BACI: International Trade Database at the Product-Level. The 1994-2007 Version," Working Papers 2010-23, CEPII research center.
  6. Andrea Finicelli & Massimo Sbracia & Andrea Zaghini, 2011. "A disaggregated analysis of the export performance of some industrial and emerging countries," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 8(1), pages 93-113, April.
  7. João Amador & Sónia Cabral, 2008. "The Portuguese Export Performance in Perspective: A Constant Market Share Analysis," Economic Bulletin and Financial Stability Report Articles, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
  8. Fagerberg, Jan, 1988. "International Competitiveness," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 98(391), pages 355-74, June.
  9. Fagerberg, Jan, 1988. "International Competitiveness: Errata," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 98(393), pages 1203, December.
  10. Keld Laursen, 1996. "The Impact of Technological Opportunity on the Dynamics of Trade Performance," DRUID Working Papers 96-12, DRUID, Copenhagen Business School, Department of Industrial Economics and Strategy/Aalborg University, Department of Business Studies.
  11. Cafiso, Gianluca, 2009. "The Export Performance of the Euro Area countries in the period 1996-2007," MPRA Paper 20263, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  12. Lionel Fontagné & Guillaume Gaulier & Soledad Zignago, 2007. "Specialisation across Varieties within Products and North-South Competition," Working Papers 2007-06, CEPII research center.
  13. Angela Cheptea & Guillaume Gaulier & Soledad Zignago, 2005. "World Trade Competitiveness: A Disaggregated View by Shift-Share Analysis," Working Papers 2005-23, CEPII research center.
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Cited by:
  1. Cheptea, Angela, 2012. "Who gains and who loses from China’s growth?," 131st Seminar, September 18-19, 2012, Prague, Czech Republic 135788, European Association of Agricultural Economists.

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