Dairy Quota and Farm Structural Change: A Case Study on the Netherlands
AbstractThis paper sets out to analyse the impact of milk quotas had on the dairy farm structure of the Netherlands. In addition projections on the likely farm structure under different milk quota scenarios are explored. Moreover mobility indicators characterizing structural change are developed and calculated. A Markov probability model is estimated relying on a generalized cross entropy approach. The introduction of milk quotas as of April 1, 1984 froze the dairy farm structural adjustment, at least initially. However, later on mobility started to increase, which is likely to reflect the quota tradability and lease possibilities. Moreover there is evidence that the milk quota regime has increased concentration of dairy production among farms with 50-69 cows. If after quota abolition the dairy farm structural dynamics would be the same as in the 1972-83 period, then quota abolition in 2015 will lead to a substantial increase in the number of farms in 2022 as compared to the current status quo.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by European Association of Agricultural Economists in its series 107th Seminar, January 30-February 1, 2008, Sevilla, Spain with number 6692.
Date of creation: 2008
Date of revision:
dairy; farm size; Netherlands; Markov chain; generalized cross entropy; Agricultural and Food Policy; Farm Management; Livestock Production/Industries; Research Methods/ Statistical Methods;
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2008-11-25 (All new papers)
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