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Structural Change in the Dairy Sectors of Germany and The Netherlands - A Markov Chain Analysis

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  • Huettel, Silke
  • Jongeneel, Roelof A.

Abstract

With the milk quota announced to be abolished in the future, the dairy sector is going to face a significant policy regime shift. This paper sets out to analyze the impact of milk quotas on the dairy farm structure of two important milk producing member states: Germany and the Netherlands. Based on proper behavioral assumptions, non stationary Markov chain models are specified and estimated using a generalized cross entropy procedure, which takes into account both sample and prior information. Moreover four mobility indicators characterizing structural change are developed and calculated. Structural change in the dairy sector as measured by the mobility measures is faster in West Germany than in the Netherlands. However, in the transition region East Germany structural change outpaces that of the traditional German and Dutch dairy sectors by a factor two or more. The introduction of milk quotas as of April 1, 1984 reduced overall farm mobility for the Netherlands, but increased mobility in West Germany. However, in both cases the milk quotas lead to an increase in upward mobility.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by European Association of Agricultural Economists in its series 2008 International Congress, August 26-29, 2008, Ghent, Belgium with number 43659.

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Date of creation: 2008
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Handle: RePEc:ags:eaae08:43659

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Related research

Keywords: Markov Chain; Milk Quota; Structural Change; Livestock Production/Industries;

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  1. Amos Golan & Stephen Vogel, 2000. "Estimation of Non-Stationary Social Accounting Matrix Coefficients with Supply-Side Information," Economic Systems Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 12(4), pages 447-471.
  2. Stokes, Jeffrey R., 2006. "Entry, Exit, and Structural Change in Pennsylvania's Dairy Sector," Agricultural and Resource Economics Review, Northeastern Agricultural and Resource Economics Association, vol. 35(2), October.
  3. Kostov, Philip & Patton, Myles & Moss, Joan & McErlean, Seamus, 2006. "Does Gibrat’s law hold amongst dairy farmers in Northern Ireland?," MPRA Paper 3370, University Library of Munich, Germany.
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  5. Karantininis, Kostas, 2002. "Information-based estimators for the non-stationary transition probability matrix: an application to the Danish pork industry," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 107(1-2), pages 275-290, March.
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  7. Christoph R. Weiss, 1999. "Farm Growth and Survival: Econometric Evidence for Individual Farms in Upper Austria," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 81(1), pages 103-116.
  8. Zimmermann, Andrea & Heckelei, Thomas & Perez Dominguez, Ignacio, 2006. "Working paper: Literature Review of Approaches to Estimate Structural Change," Reports 9304, SEAMLESS: System for Environmental and Agricultural Modelling, Linking European Science and Society.
  9. Jeremy D. Foltz, 2004. "Entry, Exit, and Farm Size: Assessing an Experiment in Dairy Price Policy," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 86(3), pages 594-604.
  10. Ky–sti Pietola & Minna V”re & Alfons Oude Lansink, 2003. "Timing and type of exit from farming: farmers' early retirement programmes in Finland," European Review of Agricultural Economics, Foundation for the European Review of Agricultural Economics, vol. 30(1), pages 99-116, March.
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Cited by:
  1. Francksen, Tammo & Hagemann, Martin & Latacz-Lohmann, Uwe, 2011. "Eine empirische Untersuchung zum Wachstum von Milchviehbetrieben mittels der Ereignisanalyse," 51st Annual Conference, Halle, Germany, September 28-30, 2011 114494, German Association of Agricultural Economists (GEWISOLA).
  2. Mosnier, Claire & Wieck, Christine, 2010. "Determinants of spatial dynamics of dairy production: a review," Discussion Papers 162896, University of Bonn, Institute for Food and Resource Economics.
  3. Mikkel Bojesen & Hans Skov-Petersen & Morten Gylling, 2013. "Forecasting the potential of Danish biogas production: spatial representation of Markov chains," IFRO Working Paper 2013/16, University of Copenhagen, Department of Food and Resource Economics.

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