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The distribution of dairy farm size in Poland: a markov approach based on information theory

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Author Info

  • Axel Tonini
  • Roel Jongeneel

Abstract

This article sets out to analyse the evolution of the dairy farm structure of Poland during the post-socialist period. After focusing on how the farm structure has changed over time, an instrumental variable generalized cross entropy estimator is used to develop and estimate a Markov model in order to explore how farm structure will probably develop in the coming decade. The estimator exploits both sample data and prior information, including general and plausible information on farm mobility and structural adjustments based on independent literature. Next, several statistical indicators are computed for farm mobility and for which farms are likely to survive. Finally, milk projections are made and related to policy scenarios. The projections show that the number of dairy farms will continue to decline, but the number of medium and large farms will increase. In the coming decade, subsistence dairy farms are expected to leave the sector slowly. Milk projections show that under the status quo, milk quotas will be binding and overrun, whereas under the 'soft landing' scenario they appear to be only binding after 2010.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Taylor & Francis Journals in its journal Applied Economics.

Volume (Year): 41 (2009)
Issue (Month): 1 ()
Pages: 55-69

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Handle: RePEc:taf:applec:v:41:y:2009:i:1:p:55-69

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Cited by:
  1. Huettel, Silke & Jongeneel, Roelof A., 2008. "Structural Change in the Dairy Sectors of Germany and The Netherlands - A Markov Chain Analysis," 2008 International Congress, August 26-29, 2008, Ghent, Belgium 43659, European Association of Agricultural Economists.
  2. Piet, Laurent, 2011. "Assessing structural change in agriculture with a parametric Markov chain model. Illustrative applications to EU-15 and the USA," 2011 International Congress, August 30-September 2, 2011, Zurich, Switzerland 114668, European Association of Agricultural Economists.
  3. Zimmermann, Andrea & Heckelei, Thomas, 2012. "Differences of farm structural change across European regions," Discussion Papers 162879, University of Bonn, Institute for Food and Resource Economics.
  4. Dolev, Yuval & Kimhi, Ayal, 2010. "Do family farms really converge to a uniform size? The role of unobserved farm efficiency," Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 54(1), March.
  5. Jongeneel, Roelof A. & Tonini, Axel, 2008. "Dairy Quota and Farm Structural Change: A Case Study on the Netherlands," 107th Seminar, January 30-February 1, 2008, Sevilla, Spain 6692, European Association of Agricultural Economists.
  6. Mikkel Bojesen & Hans Skov-Petersen & Morten Gylling, 2013. "Forecasting the potential of Danish biogas production: spatial representation of Markov chains," IFRO Working Paper 2013/16, University of Copenhagen, Department of Food and Resource Economics.
  7. Huettel, Silke & Jongeneel, Roelof A., 2009. "Impact of the EU Milk Quota on Structural Change in the Dairy Sectors of Germany and The Netherlands," 2009 Conference, August 16-22, 2009, Beijing, China 50943, International Association of Agricultural Economists.

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