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Combining biophysical and price simulations to assess the economics of long-term crop rotations

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  • Murray-Prior, Roy B.
  • Whish, J.
  • Carberry, Peter S.
  • Dalgleish, N.
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    Abstract

    Long-run rotational gross margins were calculated with yields derived from biophysical simulations in APSIM over a period of 100+ years and prices simulated in @Risk based on subjective triangular price distributions elicited from the Jimbour Plains farmer group. Rotations included chickpeas, cotton, lucerne, sorghum, wheat and different lengths of fallow. Output presented to the farmers included mean annual GMs and distributions of GMs with box and whisker plots found to be suitable. Mean-standard deviation and first and second-degree stochastic dominance efficiency measures were also calculated. Including lucerne in the rotations improved some sustainability indicators but reduced profitability.

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    Bibliographic Info

    Paper provided by Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society in its series 2003 Conference (47th), February 12-14, 2003, Fremantle, Australia with number 57927.

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    Date of creation: Feb 2003
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    Handle: RePEc:ags:aare03:57927

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    Keywords: Crop Production/Industries; Farm Management;

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    8. Bathgate, Andrew & Pannell, David J., 2002. "Economics of deep-rooted perennials in western Australia," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 53(1-3), pages 117-132, February.
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