Nonlinearities in the US corn-ethanol-oil price system
AbstractWe use a smooth transition vector error correction model to assess price relationships within the US ethanol industry. Daily ethanol, corn and oil futures prices observed from mid-2005 to mid-2007 are used in the analysis. Results indicate the existence of an equilibrium relationship between ethanol, corn and oil prices. However, only ethanol prices adjust, in a non-linear fashion, to deviations from this long-run parity. Generalized impulse response functions indicate that a shock to both oil and corn prices causes a change in ethanol prices of the same sign. Ethanol responses usually reach a peak after about 10 days of the initial shock and fade away within 35 days.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association) in its series 2008 Annual Meeting, July 27-29, 2008, Orlando, Florida with number 6512.
Date of creation: 2008
Date of revision:
Contact details of provider:
Postal: 555 East Wells Street, Suite 1100, Milwaukee, Wisconsin 53202
Phone: (414) 918-3190
Fax: (414) 276-3349
Web page: http://www.aaea.org
More information through EDIRC
Biofuels; United States; Cointegration; Threshold; Resource /Energy Economics and Policy;
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Gabriella Legrenzi & Costas Milas, 2005.
"Non-linear real exchange rate effects in the UK labour market,"
Keele Economics Research Papers
KERP 2005/08, Centre for Economic Research, Keele University.
- Milas Costas & Legrenzi Gabriella, 2006. "Non-linear Real Exchange Rate Effects in the UK Labour Market," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 10(1), pages 1-34, March.
- Gabriella Legrenzi & Costas Milas, 2005. "Non-linear real exchange rate effects in the UK labour market," Macroeconomics 0507019, EconWPA.
- Gabriella Legrenzi & Costas Milas, 2004. "Non-linear real exchange rate effects in the UK labour market," International Finance 0411007, EconWPA.
- Dick van Dijk & Timo Terasvirta & Philip Hans Franses, 2002.
"Smooth Transition Autoregressive Models — A Survey Of Recent Developments,"
Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 21(1), pages 1-47.
- van Dijk, D.J.C. & Terasvirta, T. & Franses, Ph.H.B.F., 2000. "Smooth transition autoregressive models - A survey of recent developments," Econometric Institute Research Papers EI 2000-23/A, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Erasmus School of Economics (ESE), Econometric Institute.
- van Dijk, Dick & Teräsvirta, Timo & Franses, Philip Hans, 2000. "Smooth Transition Autoregressive Models - A Survey of Recent Developments," Working Paper Series in Economics and Finance 380, Stockholm School of Economics, revised 17 Jan 2001.
- Perron, P., 1990.
"Further Evidence On Breaking Trend Functions In Macroeconomics Variables,"
350, Princeton, Department of Economics - Econometric Research Program.
- Perron, Pierre, 1997. "Further evidence on breaking trend functions in macroeconomic variables," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 80(2), pages 355-385, October.
- Perron, P., 1994. "Further Evidence on Breaking Trend Functions in Macroeconomic Variables," Cahiers de recherche 9421, Universite de Montreal, Departement de sciences economiques.
- Perron, P., 1994. "Further Evidence on Breaking Trend Functions in Macroeconomic Variables," Cahiers de recherche 9421, Centre interuniversitaire de recherche en économie quantitative, CIREQ.
- Graham Elliott & Thomas J. Rothenberg & James H. Stock, 1992.
"Efficient Tests for an Autoregressive Unit Root,"
NBER Technical Working Papers
0130, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Kwiatkowski, Denis & Phillips, Peter C. B. & Schmidt, Peter & Shin, Yongcheol, 1992.
"Testing the null hypothesis of stationarity against the alternative of a unit root : How sure are we that economic time series have a unit root?,"
Journal of Econometrics,
Elsevier, vol. 54(1-3), pages 159-178.
- Kwiatkowski, D. & Phillips, P.C.B. & Schmidt, P., 1990. "Testing the Null Hypothesis of Stationarity Against the Alternative of Unit Root : How Sure are we that Economic Time Series have a Unit Root?," Papers 8905, Michigan State - Econometrics and Economic Theory.
- Denis Kwiatkowski & Peter C.B. Phillips & Peter Schmidt, 1991. "Testing the Null Hypothesis of Stationarity Against the Alternative of a Unit Root: How Sure Are We That Economic Time Series Have a Unit Root?," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 979, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
- Hyun J. Jin & Darren L. Frechette, 2004. "Fractional Integration in Agricultural Futures Price Volatilities," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 86(2), pages 432-443.
- Eitrheim, Oyvind & Terasvirta, Timo, 1996.
"Testing the adequacy of smooth transition autoregressive models,"
Journal of Econometrics,
Elsevier, vol. 74(1), pages 59-75, September.
- Eitrheim, Øyvind & Teräsvirta, Timo, 1995. "Testing the Adequacy of Smooth Transition Autoregressive Models," Working Paper Series in Economics and Finance 56, Stockholm School of Economics.
- Kelvin Balcombe & George Rapsomanikis, 2008. "Bayesian Estimation and Selection of Nonlinear Vector Error Correction Models: The Case of the Sugar-Ethanol-Oil Nexus in Brazil," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 90(3), pages 658-668.
- Elliott, Graham, 1999.
"Efficient Tests for a Unit Root When the Initial Observation Is Drawn from Its Unconditional Distribution,"
International Economic Review,
Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 40(3), pages 767-83, August.
- Tom Doan, . "ERSTEST: RATS procedure to perform Elliott-Rothenberg-Stock unit root tests," Statistical Software Components RTS00066, Boston College Department of Economics.
- Koop, Gary & Pesaran, M. Hashem & Potter, Simon M., 1996. "Impulse response analysis in nonlinear multivariate models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 74(1), pages 119-147, September.
- Engle, Robert F & Granger, Clive W J, 1987. "Co-integration and Error Correction: Representation, Estimation, and Testing," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(2), pages 251-76, March.
- Mindy L. Mallory & Dermot J. Hayes & Scott H. Irwin, 2010.
"How Market Efficiency and the Theory of Storage Link Corn and Ethanol Markets,"
Center for Agricultural and Rural Development (CARD) Publications
10-wp517, Center for Agricultural and Rural Development (CARD) at Iowa State University.
- Mallory, Mindy L. & Irwin, Scott H. & Hayes, Dermot J., 2012. "How market efficiency and the theory of storage link corn and ethanol markets," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(6), pages 2157-2166.
- Mindy L. Mallory & Dermot J. Hayes & Scott H. Irwin, 2010. "How Market Efficiency and the Theory of Storage Link Corn and Ethanol Markets," Midwest Agribusiness Trade Research and Information Center (MATRIC) Publications 10-wp517, Midwest Agribusiness Trade Research and Information Center (MATRIC) at Iowa State University.
- Mindy L. Mallory & Dermot J. Hayes & Scott H. Irwin, 2010. "How Market Efficiency and the Theory of Storage Link Corn and Ethanol Markets," Food and Agricultural Policy Research Institute (FAPRI) Publications 10-wp517, Food and Agricultural Policy Research Institute (FAPRI) at Iowa State University.
- Busse, Stefan & Brummer, Bernhard & Ihle, Rico, 2010. "Investigating Rapeseed Price Volatilities In The Course Of The Food Crisis," 50st Annual Conference, Braunschweig, Germany, September 29-October 1, 2010 93957, German Association of Agricultural Economists (GEWISOLA).
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (AgEcon Search).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.