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Fractional Integration in Agricultural Futures Price Volatilities

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  • Hyun J. Jin
  • Darren L. Frechette

Abstract

This article tests whether the volatility of agricultural futures prices exhibits fractional integration. Volatility series were constructed for fourteen agricultural futures price series with over 5,300 observations per series. The volatility series exhibit strong long-term dependence, which is an indicator of fractional integration. A fractional integration model, FIGARCH(1, d, 1), performs significantly better than a traditional volatility model, GARCH(1,1), in modeling agricultural futures price volatility. Copyright 2004, Oxford University Press.

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File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1111/j.0092-5853.2004.00589.x
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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Agricultural and Applied Economics Association in its journal American Journal of Agricultural Economics.

Volume (Year): 86 (2004)
Issue (Month): 2 ()
Pages: 432-443

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Handle: RePEc:oup:ajagec:v:86:y:2004:i:2:p:432-443

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Cited by:
  1. Chia-Lin Chang & Biing-Wen Huang & Meng-Gu Chen & Michael McAleer, 2010. "Modelling the Asymmetric Volatility in Hog Prices in Taiwan: The Impact of Joining the WTO," Working Papers in Economics 10/39, University of Canterbury, Department of Economics and Finance.
  2. Chang, C-L. & McAleer, M.J. & Tansuchat, R., 2012. "Modelling Long Memory Volatility in Agricultural Commodity Futures Returns," Econometric Institute Research Papers EI 2012-15, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Erasmus School of Economics (ESE), Econometric Institute.
  3. Richard T. Baillie & Young-Wook Han & Robert J. Myers & Jeongseok Song, 2007. "Long Memory and FIGARCH Models for Daily and High Frequency Commodity Prices," Working Papers 594, Queen Mary, University of London, School of Economics and Finance.
  4. Turvey, Calum G., 2007. "A note on scaled variance ratio estimation of the Hurst exponent with application to agricultural commodity prices," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 377(1), pages 155-165.
  5. Chang, C-L. & Huang, B-W. & Chen, M-G., 2010. "Modelling the Asymmetric Volatility in Hog Prices in Taiwan," Econometric Institute Research Papers EI 2010-46, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Erasmus School of Economics (ESE), Econometric Institute.
  6. Karali, Berna & Thurman, Walter N., 2010. "Components of Grain Futures Price Volatility," Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 35(2), August.
  7. Turvey, Calum G. & Power, Gabriel J., 2006. "The Confidence Limits of a Geometric Brownian Motion," 2006 Annual meeting, July 23-26, Long Beach, CA 21239, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
  8. Karali, Berna & Power, Gabriel J., 2010. "Is commodity price volatility persistent? Another look using improved, full-sample estimates," 2010 Annual Meeting, July 25-27, 2010, Denver, Colorado 61826, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
  9. Huang, Biing-Wen & Chen, Meng-Gu & Chang, Chia-Lin & McAleer, Michael, 2009. "Modelling risk in agricultural finance: Application to the poultry industry in Taiwan," Mathematics and Computers in Simulation (MATCOM), Elsevier, vol. 79(5), pages 1472-1487.
  10. Serra, Teresa & Zilberman, David & Gil, Jose Maria & Goodwin, Barry K., 2008. "Nonlinearities in the US corn-ethanol-oil price system," 2008 Annual Meeting, July 27-29, 2008, Orlando, Florida 6512, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
  11. repec:ags:jrapmc:122315 is not listed on IDEAS
  12. Cochran, Steven J. & Mansur, Iqbal & Odusami, Babatunde, 2012. "Volatility persistence in metal returns: A FIGARCH approach," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 64(4), pages 287-305.
  13. Karali, Berna, 2012. "Do USDA Announcements Affect Comovements Across Commodity Futures Returns?," Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 37(1), April.
  14. Grané, A. & Veiga, H., 2008. "Accurate minimum capital risk requirements: A comparison of several approaches," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(11), pages 2482-2492, November.
  15. Sinha, Pankaj & Mathur, Kritika, 2013. "A study on the Price Behavior of Base Metals traded in India," MPRA Paper 47028, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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