Do Economic Restrictions Improve Forecasts?
AbstractA previous study showed that imposing economic restrictions improves the forecasting ability of food demand systems, thus warranting their use even when rejected in-sample. This study attempts to determine whether this is due solely to the fact that restrictions improve degrees of freedom. Results indicate that restrictions improve forecasting ability even when not derived from economic theory, but theoretical restrictions forecast best.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association) in its series 2003 Annual meeting, July 27-30, Montreal, Canada with number 22208.
Date of creation: 2003
Date of revision:
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Demand and Price Analysis;
Other versions of this item:
- Murphy, Elizabeth A. & Norwood, F. Bailey & Wohlgenant, Michael K., 2003. "Do Economic Restrictions Improve Forecasts?," 2003 Annual Meeting, February 1-5, 2003, Mobile, Alabama 35075, Southern Agricultural Economics Association.
- B4 - Schools of Economic Thought and Methodology - - Economic Methodology
- C1 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General
- C3 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables
- C5 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Terry L. Kastens & Gary W. Brester, 1996. "Model Selection and Forecasting Ability of Theory-Constrained Food Demand Systems," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 78(2), pages 301-312.
- Ashley, R & Granger, C W J & Schmalensee, R, 1980. "Advertising and Aggregate Consumption: An Analysis of Causality," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(5), pages 1149-67, July.
- Andrew Muhammad & Richard L. Kilmer, 2008. "The impact of EU export subsidy reductions on U.S. dairy exports," Agribusiness, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 24(4), pages 557-574.
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