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Model Selection for Discrete Dependent Variables: Better Statistics for Better Steaks

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Author Info

  • Norwood, F. Bailey
  • Lusk, Jayson L.
  • Brorsen, B. Wade

Abstract

Little research has been conducted on evaluating out-of sample forecasts of discrete dependent variables. This study describes the large and small sample properties of two forecast evaluation techniques for discrete dependent variables: receiver-operator curves and out-of-sample log-likelihood functions. The methods are shown to provide identical model rankings in large samples and similar rankings in small samples. The likelihood function method is better at detecting forecast accuracy in small samples. By improving forecasts of fed cattle quality grades, the forecast evaluation methods are shown to increase cattle marketing revenues by $2.59/head.

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File URL: http://purl.umn.edu/30912
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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Western Agricultural Economics Association in its journal Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics.

Volume (Year): 29 (2004)
Issue (Month): 03 (December)
Pages:

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Handle: RePEc:ags:jlaare:30912

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Web page: http://waeaonline.org/
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Related research

Keywords: discrete dependent variables; forecasting; likelihood functions; model selection; out-of-sample; quality grades; receiver-operator curves; Agribusiness;

References

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  1. Jeffrey H. Dorfman, 1998. "Bayesian Composite Qualitative Forecasting: Hog Prices Again," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 80(3), pages 543-551.
  2. M. K. Haener & P. C. Boxall & W. L. Adamowicz, 2001. "Modeling Recreation Site Choice: Do Hypothetical Choices Reflect Actual Behavior?," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 83(3), pages 629-642.
  3. Terry L. Kastens & Gary W. Brester, 1996. "Model Selection and Forecasting Ability of Theory-Constrained Food Demand Systems," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 78(2), pages 301-312.
  4. Heckman, James, 2013. "Sample selection bias as a specification error," Applied Econometrics, Publishing House "SINERGIA PRESS", vol. 31(3), pages 129-137.
  5. Jayson L. Lusk & Randall Little & Allen Williams & John Anderson & Blair McKinley, 2003. "Utilizing Ultrasound Technology to Improve Livestock Marketing Decisions," Review of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 25(1), pages 203-217.
  6. Norwood, F. Bailey & Ferrier, Peyton Michael & Lusk, Jayson L., 2001. "Model Selection Criteria Using Likelihood Functions And Out-Of-Sample Performance," 2001 Conference, April 23-24, 2001, St. Louis, Missouri 18947, NCR-134 Conference on Applied Commodity Price Analysis, Forecasting, and Market Risk Management.
  7. Loureiro, Maria L. & Hine, Susan E., 2002. "Discovering Niche Markets: A Comparison Of Consumer Willingness To Pay For Local (Colorado Grown), Organic, And Gmo-Free Products," Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics, Southern Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 34(03), December.
  8. Ashley, Richard, 1998. "A new technique for postsample model selection and validation," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 22(5), pages 647-665, May.
  9. Bailey Norwood & Matthew C. Roberts & Jayson L. Lusk, 2004. "Ranking Crop Yield Models Using Out-of-Sample Likelihood Functions," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 86(4), pages 1032-1043.
  10. John B. Loomis & Lucas S. Bair & Armando Gonz�lez-Cab�n, 2002. "Language-Related Differences in a Contingent Valuation Study: English Versus Spanish," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 84(4), pages 1091-1102.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Gallardo, R. Karina & Wang, Qianqian, 2013. "Willingness to Pay for Pesticides' Environmental Features and Social Desirability Bias: The Case of Apple and Pear Growers," Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 38(1), April.
  2. Chang, Jae Bong & Lusk, Jayson L., 2008. "Concerns for Fairness and Preferences for Organic Food," 2008 Annual Meeting, July 27-29, 2008, Orlando, Florida 6414, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
  3. KIANI, Khurshid M., 2007. "Business Cycle Asymmetries In Stock Returns: Robust Evidence," International Journal of Applied Econometrics and Quantitative Studies, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 4(2), pages 99-120.
  4. Norwood, F. Bailey, 2005. "Can Calibration Reconcile Stated and Observed Preferences?," Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics, Southern Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 37(01), April.
  5. Drichoutis, Andreas & Lusk, Jayson, 2012. "Judging statistical models of individual decision making under risk using in- and out-of-sample criteria," MPRA Paper 38951, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  6. Brorsen, B. Wade, 2009. "Research: Are We Valuing the Right Stuff?," Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 34(1), April.

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