IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/agd/wpaper/19-060.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Inflation, Output Growth and their Uncertainties: A Multivariate GARCH-M Modeling Evidence for Nigeria

Author

Listed:
  • Perekunah B. Eregha

    (Pan-Atlantic University, Lekki-Lagos. Nigeria)

  • Arcade Ndoricimpa

    (University of Burundi, Burundi)

Abstract

The study applies a BEKK GARCH-M model to examine the effect of uncertainty on the levels of inflation and output growth in Nigeria. The results suggest a significant positive effect of inflation uncertainty on the level of inflation, supporting the Cukierman and Meltzer (1986) hypothesis. In addition, uncertainty about inflation is found to be detrimental to output growth, supporting the Friedman’s (1977) hypothesis of a negative effect of inflation uncertainty on output growth. Uncertainty about growth does not have a significant effect on both the levels of inflation and output growth. The evidence in this study suggests that Nigeria should put in place policies minimizing inflation uncertainty to avoid its adverse effects on the economy. In addition, the independence relationship between output growth and its uncertainty in Nigeria suggest that they can be treated separately as suggested by business cycle models.

Suggested Citation

  • Perekunah B. Eregha & Arcade Ndoricimpa, 2019. "Inflation, Output Growth and their Uncertainties: A Multivariate GARCH-M Modeling Evidence for Nigeria," Working Papers of the African Governance and Development Institute. 19/060, African Governance and Development Institute..
  • Handle: RePEc:agd:wpaper:19/060
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.afridev.org/RePEc/agd/agd-wpaper/Inflation-Output-Growth-and-their-Uncertainties-in-Nigeria.pdf
    File Function: Revised version, 2019
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Taylor, John B., 1981. "On the relation between the variability of inflation and the average inflation rate," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 15(1), pages 57-85, January.
    2. Ball, Laurence, 1992. "Why does high inflation raise inflation uncertainty?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(3), pages 371-388, June.
    3. Ndoricimpa, Arcade, 2015. "Inflation, output growth and their uncertainties in South Africa: Empirical evidence from an asymmetric multivariate GARCH-M model," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 39(3), pages 5-17.
    4. Logue, Dennis E & Sweeney, Richard James, 1981. "Inflation and Real Growth: Some Empirical Results: A Note," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 13(4), pages 497-501, November.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Perekunah B. Eregha & Arcade Ndoricimpa, 2022. "Inflation, output growth and their uncertainties: some multivariate GARCH-M evidence for Nigeria," Journal of Social and Economic Development, Springer;Institute for Social and Economic Change, vol. 24(1), pages 197-210, June.
    2. Gregory D. Hess & Charles S. Morris, 1996. "The long-run costs of moderate inflation," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, vol. 81(Q II), pages 71-88.
    3. Mübariz Hasanov & Tolga Omay, 2011. "The Relationship Between Inflation, Output Growth, and Their Uncertainties: Evidence from Selected CEE Countries," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 47(0), pages 5-20, July.
    4. John Simon, 1996. "A Markov-switching Model of Inflation in Australia," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp9611, Reserve Bank of Australia.
    5. Tsvetomir Tsvetkov & Sonya Georgieva, 2022. "Inflation, Inflation Instability and Nominal Uncertainty in Bulgarian Economy," Economic Studies journal, Bulgarian Academy of Sciences - Economic Research Institute, issue 8, pages 41-64.
    6. Mike Joyce, 1995. "Modelling UK Inflation Uncertainty: The Impact of News and the Relationship with Inflation," Bank of England working papers 30, Bank of England.
    7. Axel Jochem, 1999. "Monetary stabilization in countries in transition," International Advances in Economic Research, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 5(1), pages 37-47, February.
    8. Dennis W. Jansen, 1989. "Does inflation uncertainty affect output growth? Further evidence," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Jul, pages 43-54.
    9. Karras, Georgios, 2017. "Is the relationship between inflation and its volatility asymmetric? US evidence, 1800–2016," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 16(C), pages 79-86.
    10. da Silva Filho, Tito Nícias Teixeira, 2005. "Is there too much certainty when measuring uncertainty," MPRA Paper 16383, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    11. Davis, George K & Kanago, Bryce E, 2000. "The Level and Uncertainty of Inflation: Results from OECD Forecasts," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 38(1), pages 58-72, January.
    12. Juan Carlos Echeverry, 1996. "The rise and Perpetuation of a Moderate Inflation, Colombia 1970-1991," Borradores de Economia 050, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    13. Kushal Banik Chowdhury & Nityananda Sarkar, 2019. "Regime Dependent Effect Of Output Growth On Output Growth Uncertainty: Evidence From Oecd Countries," Bulletin of Economic Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 71(3), pages 257-282, July.
    14. Said Zamin Shah & Ahmad Zubaidi Baharumshah & Muzafar Shah Habibullah, 2019. "Dynamic Linkages and Volatility Transmissions between Macroeconomic Uncertainty and Performance: Evidence from South Asian Countries," Journal of South Asian Development, , vol. 14(3), pages 281-313, December.
    15. Brian O'Reilly, 1998. "The Benefits of Low Inflation: Taking Shock "A nickel ain't worth a dime any more" [Yogi Berra]," Technical Reports 83, Bank of Canada.
    16. B. Balaji & S. Raja Sethu Durai & M. Ramachandran, 2016. "The Dynamics Between Inflation and Inflation Uncertainty: Evidence from India," Journal of Quantitative Economics, Springer;The Indian Econometric Society (TIES), vol. 14(1), pages 1-14, June.
    17. Henry, Olan T. & Olekalns, Nilss & Suardi, Sandy, 2007. "Testing for rate dependence and asymmetry in inflation uncertainty: Evidence from the G7 economies," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 94(3), pages 383-388, March.
    18. Zeynel Abidin Ozdemir, 2010. "Dynamics Of Inflation, Output Growth And Their Uncertainty In The Uk: An Empirical Analysis," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 78(6), pages 511-537, December.
    19. Baharumshah, Ahmad Zubaidi & Slesman, Ly & Wohar, Mark E., 2016. "Inflation, inflation uncertainty, and economic growth in emerging and developing countries: Panel data evidence," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 40(4), pages 638-657.
    20. Karanasos Menelaos & Schurer Stefanie, 2008. "Is the Relationship between Inflation and Its Uncertainty Linear?," German Economic Review, De Gruyter, vol. 9(3), pages 265-286, August.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Inflation; Inflation Uncertainty; Output; Output Uncertainty; BEKK GARCH-M;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • E0 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:agd:wpaper:19/060. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Asongu Simplice (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/agdiycm.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.