IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/afc/wpaper/06-07.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Cliométrie de l’engorgement en France. Evaluation théorique et empirique

Author

Listed:
  • Magali Jaoul-Grammare

    (LAMETA, Université Montpellier I.)

Abstract

Dans de nombreux pays, le système d’enseignement supérieur, comme le système économique, a connu des phases d’expansion suivies de périodes de stagnation ou de baisse. Aussi, la possibilité d’une liaison entre les deux systèmes a souvent été avancée. Pour Diebolt (2001), ces mouvements sont liés aux mouvements du marché du travail. Dans sa théorie de l’engorgement, il considère que le comportement des étudiants dans leurs choix de carrière dépend des revenus espérés et des disponibilités au coeur du secteur professionnel. L’objet de cet article, est de proposer un test économétrique de cette théorie, pour le cas de la France (1982-2002), à l’aide de la cointégration et de la causalité. Les relations mises en évidence dans notre analyse semblent aller dans le sens d’une confirmation de cette théorie. En effet, nous observons une substituabilité entre filières universitaires et entre les diverses professions d’une part et une complémentarité entre effectifs universitaires et professions correspondantes, par ailleurs.

Suggested Citation

  • Magali Jaoul-Grammare, 2006. "Cliométrie de l’engorgement en France. Evaluation théorique et empirique," Working Papers 06-07, Association Française de Cliométrie (AFC).
    • Handle: RePEc:afc:wpaper:06-07
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.cliometrie.org/images/wp/AFC_WP_07-2006.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Claude Diebolt & Bachir El Murr, 2004. "A cobweb model of higher education and labour market dynamics," Brussels Economic Review, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles, vol. 47(3-4), pages 409-430.
    2. C. Bruneau, 1996. "Analyse économétrique de la causalité : un bilan de la littérature," THEMA Working Papers 96-12, THEMA (THéorie Economique, Modélisation et Applications), Université de Cergy-Pontoise.
    3. Jean-Pascal Guironnet, 2005. "La suréducation en France : Vers une dévalorisation des diplômes du supérieur ?," Working Papers 05-10, Association Française de Cliométrie (AFC).
    4. Richard B. Freeman, 1975. "Overinvestment in College Training?," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 10(3), pages 287-311.
    5. Wim Groot & Henriette Maassen Vann De Brink, 2000. "Education, training and employability," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 32(5), pages 573-581.
    6. Dickey, David A & Fuller, Wayne A, 1981. "Likelihood Ratio Statistics for Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 49(4), pages 1057-1072, June.
    7. Wim Groot, 1998. "Empirical estimates of the rate of depreciation of education," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 5(8), pages 535-538.
    8. Rochat, Denis & Demeulemeester, Jean-Luc, 2001. "Rational choice under unequal constraints: the example of Belgian higher education," Economics of Education Review, Elsevier, vol. 20(1), pages 15-26, February.
    9. Gérard Forgeot & Jérôme Gautié, 1997. "Insertion professionnelle des jeunes et processus de déclassement," Économie et Statistique, Programme National Persée, vol. 304(1), pages 53-74.
    10. Engle, R. F. & Granger, C. W. J. (ed.), 1991. "Long-Run Economic Relationships: Readings in Cointegration," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198283393.
    11. Jean Luc De Meulemeester & Claude Diebolt, 2004. "The economies of education: unkept promises?," Brussels Economic Review, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles, vol. 47(3-4), pages 303-320.
    12. Granger, C. W. J. & Newbold, P., 1974. "Spurious regressions in econometrics," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 2(2), pages 111-120, July.
    13. Felderer, Bernhard & Drost, André, 2000. "Cyclical Occupational Choice in a Model with Rational Wage Expectations and Perfect Occupational Mobility," Economics Series 81, Institute for Advanced Studies.
    14. Engle, Robert & Granger, Clive, 2015. "Co-integration and error correction: Representation, estimation, and testing," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 39(3), pages 106-135.
    15. Dominique Goux & Éric Maurin, 1994. "Éducation, expérience et salaire," Économie et Prévision, Programme National Persée, vol. 116(5), pages 155-178.
    16. Groot, Wim & Maassen van den Brink, Henriette, 2000. "Overeducation in the labor market: a meta-analysis," Economics of Education Review, Elsevier, vol. 19(2), pages 149-158, April.
    17. Arrow, Kenneth J., 1973. "Higher education as a filter," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 2(3), pages 193-216, July.
    18. C. Diebolt & B. El Murr, 2003. "A model of glutting: human capital and labour markets in the long-run," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 10(9), pages 557-560.
    19. Christian Baudelot & Michel Glaude, 1989. "Les diplômes se dévaluent-ils en se multipliant ?," Économie et Statistique, Programme National Persée, vol. 225(1), pages 3-16.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Magali Jaoul, 2004. "Enseignement supérieur et marchés du travail. Analyse économétrique de la théorie de l’engorgement," Économie et Prévision, Programme National Persée, vol. 166(5), pages 39-57.
    2. Yap, Wei Yim & Lam, Jasmine S.L., 2006. "Competition dynamics between container ports in East Asia," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 40(1), pages 35-51, January.
    3. Levent KORAP, 2008. "Exchange Rate Determination Of Tl/Us$:A Co-Integration Approach," Istanbul University Econometrics and Statistics e-Journal, Department of Econometrics, Faculty of Economics, Istanbul University, vol. 7(1), pages 24-50, May.
    4. Claude Diebolt, 2016. "Modelling Education Dynamics with Cliometrics Foundations," Working Papers 01-16, Association Française de Cliométrie (AFC).
    5. Teixeira, Aurora A.C. & Fortuna, Natércia, 2010. "Human capital, R&D, trade, and long-run productivity. Testing the technological absorption hypothesis for the Portuguese economy, 1960-2001," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(3), pages 335-350, April.
    6. Esther Stroe-Kunold & Joachim Werner, 2009. "A drunk and her dog: a spurious relation? Cointegration tests as instruments to detect spurious correlations between integrated time series," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 43(6), pages 913-940, November.
    7. Magali JAOUL-GRAMMARE, 2014. "Prestige social des professions et substituabilité des filières universitaires en France au XXème siècle," Economies et Sociétés (Serie 'Histoire Economique Quantitative'), Association Française de Cliométrie (AFC), issue 49, pages 1309-1333, Août.
    8. Claude Diebolt & Olivier Darné, 2005. "Cliometrics of Academic Careers and the Impact of Infrequent Large Shocks in Germany before 1945," Post-Print hal-00279246, HAL.
    9. Committee, Nobel Prize, 2003. "Time-series Econometrics: Cointegration and Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity," Nobel Prize in Economics documents 2003-1, Nobel Prize Committee.
    10. Magali Jaoul-Grammare, 2014. "Prestige social des professions et substituabilité des filières universitaires," Working Papers of BETA 2014-01, Bureau d'Economie Théorique et Appliquée, UDS, Strasbourg.
    11. Jean-Pascal Guironnet & Magali Jaoul-Grammare, 2007. "Educational Mismatches, Wages and Economic Growth: A Causal Analysis for the French Case since 1980," Working Papers 07-03, LAMETA, Universtiy of Montpellier, revised Apr 2007.
    12. Tsangyao Chang & WenRong Liu & Steven Caudill, 2004. "A re-examination of Wagner's law for ten countries based on cointegration and error-correction modelling techniques," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 14(8), pages 577-589.
    13. Ghouse, Ghulam & Khan, Saud Ahmed & Rehman, Atiq Ur, 2018. "ARDL model as a remedy for spurious regression: problems, performance and prospectus," MPRA Paper 83973, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    14. Aurora A.C. Teixeira & Natércia Fortuna, 2006. "Human capital, trade and long-run productivity. Testing the technological absorption hypothesis for the Portuguese economy, 1960-2001," FEP Working Papers 226, Universidade do Porto, Faculdade de Economia do Porto.
    15. Milioti, Christina P. & Karlaftis, Matthew G., 2014. "Estimating multimodal public transport mode shares in Athens, Greece," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 88-95.
    16. Ansharullah Tasri, 2019. "The Flypaper Effect Phenomenon: Evidence from Indonesia," European Journal of Engineering and Formal Sciences Articles, Revistia Research and Publishing, vol. 2, 2019.
    17. Kremers, Jeroen J M & Ericsson, Neil R & Dolado, Juan J, 1992. "The Power of Cointegration Tests," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 54(3), pages 325-348, August.
    18. Neil R. Ericsson & James G. MacKinnon, 2002. "Distributions of error correction tests for cointegration," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 5(2), pages 285-318, June.
    19. Osamah M. Al-Khazali, 2003. "Stock Prices, Inflation, and Output: Evidence from the Emerging Markets," Journal of Emerging Market Finance, Institute for Financial Management and Research, vol. 2(3), pages 287-314, September.
    20. Svanidze, Miranda & Götz, Linde & Djuric, Ivan & Glauben, Thomas, 2019. "Food security and the functioning of wheat markets in Eurasia: a comparative price transmission analysis for the countries of Central Asia and the South Caucasus," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 11(3), pages 733-752.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Causalité; engorgement; enseignement supérieur; marché du travail; salaires;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • I21 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Education - - - Analysis of Education
    • J31 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Wages, Compensation, and Labor Costs - - - Wage Level and Structure; Wage Differentials
    • N3 - Economic History - - Labor and Consumers, Demography, Education, Health, Welfare, Income, Wealth, Religion, and Philanthropy

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:afc:wpaper:06-07. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: the person in charge (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/afcccea.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.