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Factores Determinantes de la Probabilidad de Afiliación al Sistema de Pensiones en Bolivia

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Author Info
Oscar Molina () (Institute for Advanced Development Studies)
Fabian Soria () (Institute for Advanced Development Studies)

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Abstract

La reforma del sistema de pensiones boliviano transformó el esquema público de reparto, en un sistema de capitalización individual, sin embargo no planteó los incentivos para generar un proceso sostenible de afiliación, lo que generó que en la actualidad únicamente 4% de los afiliados al sistema de pensiones pertenezcan a la población independiente. En este trabajo se determinan las variables que condicionan el que un trabajador se afilie en forma activa en el sistema previsional divididas por género, etnia y zona donde vive. Los resultados concuerdan parcialmente con trabajos previos en el área donde las diferencias por género son menores en países en desarrollo (Barrientos, 1998 y Benavente y Molina, 2002) comparadas con aquellas encontradas para países desarrollados (Even and Macpherson 1994, Ginn and Harber, 1993). La explicación de las diferencias encontradas para el caso boliviano podrían responder a aspectos centrales de la actual coyuntura que vive el país, mostrando que la probabilidad de afiliación se encuentra alrededor del 2.4 %. En este trabajo se proponen técnicas que eliminan los sesgos de autoselección las que corrigen los problemas derivados de los supuestos normalmente utilizados en estudios similares.

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Paper provided by Institute for Advanced Development Studies in its series Development Research Working Paper Series with number 02/2006.

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Length: 22 pages
Date of creation: Feb 2006
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Handle: RePEc:adv:wpaper:200602

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Related research
Keywords: Pensiones Bolivia

Find related papers by JEL classification:
H55 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - Social Security and Public Pensions

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References listed on IDEAS
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  1. Pablo Antolin & Stefano Scarpetta, 1998. "Microeconometric Analysis of the Retirement Decision: Germany," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 204, OECD Economics Department. [Downloadable!]
  2. Bas van der Klaauw & Ruud H. Koning, 1996. "Some Applications of Semi-Nonparametric Maximum Likelihood Estimation," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 96-161/7, Tinbergen Institute. [Downloadable!]
  3. Horowitz, Joel L, 1992. "A Smoothed Maximum Score Estimator for the Binary Response Model," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 60(3), pages 505-31, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Heckman, James J, 1979. "Sample Selection Bias as a Specification Error," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 47(1), pages 153-61, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Gerfin, Michael, 1996. "Parametric and Semi-parametric Estimation of the Binary Response Model of Labor Market Participation," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 11(3), pages 321-39, May-June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  6. Federico Escobar & Osvaldo Nina, 2004. "Pension Reform in Bolivia: A Review of Approach and Experience," Development Research Working Paper Series 04/2004, Institute for Advanced Development Studies. [Downloadable!]
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