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Microeconometric Analysis of the Retirement Decision: Germany

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  • Pablo Antolín
  • Stefano Scarpetta

Abstract

This paper analyses the determinants of the retirement decision in Germany using microdata from the German Socio-Economic Panel over the period 1985-1995. Non-parametric and semi-parametric techniques have been used to describe the exit to retirement. Non-parametric estimates suggest that the incentive structure generated by the different social security schemes play a powerful role in the individual retirement decision. The semi-parametric analysis is conducted using a piece-wise constant hazard model with multiple destinations (i.e. disability scheme and old-age pension scheme) and time-varying covariates. Socio-demographic factors have a strong impact on the retirement decision. Moreover, poor health contributes to early withdrawals from the labour market, especially in the case of disability retirement. Financial incentives offered in the pension system are also powerful in shaping the age profile of retirement. In particular, we used the pension wealth and an estimate of the ... Ce document analyse les facteurs qui déterminent la décision de partir à la retraite, en Allemagne, en utilisant les micro-données tirées de l’Enquête Socio-Economique durant la période 1985-95. Des techniques d’analyse non-paramétrique et semi-paramétrique ont été utilisées pour décrire le processus de départ à la retraite. Les estimations non-paramétriques suggèrent que les incitations produites par les différents éléments du système de sécurité sociale jouent un rôle très important dans la decision individuelle de départ à la retraite.L’analyse semi-paramëtrique est menée en utilisant un modèle à risqué constant “piece-wise” à destinations multiples (pensions d’invalidité et de vieillesse) et des variables explicatives variant dans le temps. Les facteurs socio-démographiques ont un impact important sur la décision de départ à la retraite. De plus une mauvaise santé incite à un départ anticipé à la retraite, surtout dans le cadre d’une pension d’invalidité. Les incitations ...

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File URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1787/572650601656
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by OECD Publishing in its series OECD Economics Department Working Papers with number 204.

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Date of creation: 24 Jun 1998
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Handle: RePEc:oec:ecoaaa:204-en

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Cited by:
  1. Michael Beckmann, 2007. "Age-Biased Technological and Organizational Change: Firm-Level Evidence and Management Implications," Working papers 2007/05, Faculty of Business and Economics - University of Basel.
  2. Malene Kallestrup-Lamb & Anders Bredahl Kock & Johannes Tang Kristensen, 2013. "Lassoing the Determinants of Retirement," CREATES Research Papers 2013-21, School of Economics and Management, University of Aarhus.
  3. Marjan, MAES, 2008. "Does the dismantlement of early retirement schemes increase unemployment in Belgium ?," Discussion Papers (ECON - Département des Sciences Economiques) 2008041, Université catholique de Louvain, Département des Sciences Economiques.
  4. Jennifer Roberts & Nigel Rice & Andrew M. Jones, 2009. "Early Retirement and Inequality in Britain and Germany: How Important Is Health?," SOEPpapers on Multidisciplinary Panel Data Research 188, DIW Berlin, The German Socio-Economic Panel (SOEP).
  5. Monika Bütler & Olivia Huguenin & Federica Teppa, 2005. "Why Forcing People to Save for Retirement may Backfire," CESifo Working Paper Series 1458, CESifo Group Munich.
  6. Oscar Molina Tejerina & Fabián Soria Merino, 2006. "Factores determinantes de la probabilidad de afiliación al sistema de pensiones en Bolivia," Investigación & Desarrollo 0306, Universidad Privada Boliviana, revised Mar 2006.
  7. Polanec, Sašo & Ahčan, Aleš & Verbič, Miroslav, 2010. "Retirement Decisions in Transition: Microeconometric Evidence from Slovenia," MPRA Paper 28460, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  8. Monika Bütler & Olivia Huguenin & Federica Teppa, 2005. "Why Forcing People to Save Retirement May Backfire," Cahiers de Recherches Economiques du Département d'Econométrie et d'Economie politique (DEEP) 05.05, Université de Lausanne, Faculté des HEC, DEEP.
  9. Tuulia Hakola & Roope Uusitalo, 2001. "Let's Make a Deal - the Impact of Social Security Provisions and Firm Liabilities on Early Retirement," Discussion Papers 260, Government Institute for Economic Research Finland (VATT).
  10. Barbara Berkel, 2006. "Retirement Age and Preretirement in German Administrative Data," MEA discussion paper series 06107, Munich Center for the Economics of Aging (MEA) at the Max Planck Institute for Social Law and Social Policy.
  11. Marjan, MAES, 2008. "Financial and redistributive impact of reforming the old-age pension system in Belgium," Discussion Papers (ECON - Département des Sciences Economiques) 2008040, Université catholique de Louvain, Département des Sciences Economiques.
  12. Piekkola, Hannu & Deschryvere, Matthias, 2004. "Retirement Decisions and Option Values: Their Application Regarding Finland," Discussion Papers 951, The Research Institute of the Finnish Economy.
  13. Malene Kallestrup-Lamb, 2011. "The Role of the Spouse in Early Retirement Decisions for Older Workers," CREATES Research Papers 2011-38, School of Economics and Management, University of Aarhus.

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