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Interventions and Expected Exchange Rates in Emerging Market Economies

Author

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  • Santiago García-Verdú

    (Banco de México, Av. 5 de Mayo No. 2, Col. Centro, C.P. 06059, México, D.F., México)

  • Manuel Ramos-Francia

    (Banco de México, Av. 5 de Mayo No. 2, Col. Centro, C.P. 06059, México, D.F., México)

Abstract

We study variations in the risk-neutral distributions of the exchange rates in Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Mexico, and Peru due to interventions implemented by these countries. For this purpose, we first estimate the risk-neutral densities of the exchange rates based on derivatives market data, for one-day and one-week horizons. Second, using a linear regression model, we assess possible effects on the distributions of the expected exchange rates due to these interventions. We find little evidence of an effect on the expected exchange rates' means, volatilities, skewness, kurtoses, risk premia, and tails' parameters. In the few cases for which we do find some statistical evidence of an effect, it tends to be short-lived or not economically significant. On the other hand, we find evidence that interventions which objective is to restore and/or assure the proper functioning of exchange rate markets have a higher probability of success. This probability increases as the amount of resources to intervene at the disposal of the central bank increases. Needless to say, there are limits to the methodology we use.

Suggested Citation

  • Santiago García-Verdú & Manuel Ramos-Francia, 2014. "Interventions and Expected Exchange Rates in Emerging Market Economies," Quarterly Journal of Finance (QJF), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 4(01), pages 1-34.
    • Handle: RePEc:wsi:qjfxxx:v:04:y:2014:i:01:n:s2010139214500025
    DOI: 10.1142/S2010139214500025
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Rogers, J. M. & Siklos, P. L., 2003. "Foreign exchange market intervention in two small open economies: the Canadian and Australian experience," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 22(3), pages 393-416, June.
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    10. Ken Miyajima & Carlos Montoro, 2013. "Impact of foreign exchange interventions on exchange rate expectations," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Sovereign risk: a world without risk-free assets?, volume 73, pages 39-54, Bank for International Settlements.
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    Cited by:

    1. Solomiia Brychka & Denys Klynovskyi & Dmytro Krukovets & Artem Oharkov, 2019. "Meta-Analysis: Meta-Analysis: Effect of FX interventions on the exchange rate," Modern Economic Studies, Kyiv School of Economics, vol. 2(1), pages 24-44.
    2. Smita Roy Trivedi, 2020. "The Moses effect: can central banks really guide foreign exchange markets?," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 58(6), pages 2837-2865, June.
    3. Bank for International Settlements, 2021. "Changing patterns of capital flows," CGFS Papers, Bank for International Settlements, number 66, december.
    4. Tobal Martín & Yslas Renato, 2016. "Two Models of FX Market Interventions: The Cases of Brazil and Mexico," Working Papers 2016-14, Banco de México.
    5. Pal, Sumantra, 2018. "How to intervene in foreign exchange market without buying/selling dollars?," EconStor Preprints 181880, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics.
    6. Соломія Бричка & Денис Клиновський & Дмитро Круковець & Артем Огарков, 2019. "Мета-аналіз: ефект fx-інтервенцій на валютний курс," Suchasni ekonomichni doslidzhennja, Kyiv School of Economics, vol. 2(1), pages 24-47.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Interventions; exchange rates; risk-neutral distributions; generalized extreme value distributions;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E5 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • C58 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Financial Econometrics

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