Capital Controls and Exchange Rate Expectations in Emerging Markets
AbstractThis article examines changes in the exchange rate expectations associated with capital controls and banking regulations in a group of emerging countries that implemented these measures to control the adverse effects of sudden capital flows on their currencies. The evidence suggests that for most countries the effects of this type of policies are limited. Moreover, in some cases they appear to have an opposite effect from the one intended. In particular, for some currencies our results suggest there were changes in the extremes of their exchange rate distributions, which make their tails heavier and signal that the market allocates a greater probability to extreme movements. In the same way, evidence is found that this type of measures increases the levels of currency risk premium.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Banco de México in its series Working Papers with number 2012-08.
Date of creation: Sep 2012
Date of revision:
Capital controls; banking regulation; exchange rate expectations; emerging economies; generalized extreme value.;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- C14 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Semiparametric and Nonparametric Methods: General
- E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
- E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
- F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
- G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2012-10-06 (All new papers)
- NEP-BAN-2012-10-06 (Banking)
- NEP-CBA-2012-10-06 (Central Banking)
- NEP-IFN-2012-10-06 (International Finance)
- NEP-MON-2012-10-06 (Monetary Economics)
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