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Foreign-exchange intervention strategies and market expectations: insights from Japan

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  • Gnabo, Jean-Yves
  • Teiletche, Jérôme

Abstract

This study extends the traditional set of central bank's interventions to include official announcements in order to provide empirical evidence on two pivotal questions: (i) are FX authorities able to influence market expectations with different instruments? (ii) how should interventions be designed to have the greatest impact? Using Japanese data over 1992-2004 and an event-study approach, we estimate the effect of different strategies on the USD/JPY exchange-rate risk-neutral density. Overall, transparent policies (public and oral interventions) appear to be the most effective. Moreover, the effect is greater when policies involve a financial cost (risk) suggesting that simple announcements can only be deemed as an imperfect substitute for actual interventions.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money.

Volume (Year): 19 (2009)
Issue (Month): 3 (July)
Pages: 432-446

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Handle: RePEc:eee:intfin:v:19:y:2009:i:3:p:432-446

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Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/intfin

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Keywords: Central bank interventions Event studies Communication policy Risk-neutral density;

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References

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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Kentaro Iwatsubo & Satoshi Kawanishi, 2011. "The Information Improving Channel of Exchange Rate Intervention: How Do Official Announcements Work?," Discussion Papers 1116, Graduate School of Economics, Kobe University.
  2. Dewachter, Hans & Erdemlioglu, Deniz & Gnabo, Jean-Yves & Lecourt, Christelle, 2014. "The intra-day impact of communication on euro-dollar volatility and jumps," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 131-154.
  3. Yushi Yoshida & Jan C. Rülke, 2009. "On-Going versus Completed Interventions and Yen/Dollar Expectations - Evidence from Disaggregated Survey Data," Discussion Papers 35, Kyushu Sangyo University, Faculty of Economics, revised Dec 2009.
  4. Nikkinen, Jussi & Vähämaa, Sami, 2009. "Central bank interventions and implied exchange rate correlations," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 16(5), pages 862-873, December.

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