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Accounting for reserves

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  • Bayoumi, Tamim
  • Saborowski, Christian

Abstract

Views on the effectiveness of sterilized reserve intervention vary. Sterilized intervention is generally seen as ineffective in advanced countries while persistent intervention by some emerging markets is often cited as contributing to undervalued exchange rates and current account surpluses. This paper argues that capital controls reconcile these views. We find strong and highly robust evidence that sterilized intervention is fully offset by outflows of private money in countries without controls, while controls partially block this offset. For a country with extensive capital controls, every dollar in additional reserves increases the current account by some 50–100 cents. This is mainly offset by an opposite adjustment in the current account of the United States—the dominant reserve currency issuer with the deepest and most liquid bond markets—with a smaller diversion to emerging markets.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of International Money and Finance.

Volume (Year): 41 (2014)
Issue (Month): C ()
Pages: 1-29

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Handle: RePEc:eee:jimfin:v:41:y:2014:i:c:p:1-29

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Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/30443

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Keywords: Reserve accumulation; Intervention; Global imbalances;

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References

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  1. Christopher J. Neely, 2005. "An analysis of recent studies of the effect of foreign exchange intervention," Working Papers 2005-030, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
  2. Rasmus Fatum & Michael M. Hutchison, . "Is Sterilized Foreign Exchange Intervention Effective After All? An Event Study Approach," EPRU Working Paper Series 99-09, Economic Policy Research Unit (EPRU), University of Copenhagen. Department of Economics.
  3. Christopher J. Neely, 2007. "Central bank authorities’ beliefs about foreign exchange intervention," Working Papers 2006-045, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
  4. Menzie D. Chinn & Barry Eichengreen & Hiro Ito, 2011. "A Forensic Analysis of Global Imbalances," NBER Working Papers 17513, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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  6. Joseph Gagnon, 2012. "Global imbalances and foreign asset expansion by developing-economy central banks," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Are central bank balance sheets in Asia too large?, volume 66, pages 168-185 Bank for International Settlements.
  7. Joseph E. Gagnon, 2013. "The Elephant Hiding in the Room: Currency Intervention and Trade Imbalances," Working Paper Series WP13-2, Peterson Institute for International Economics.
  8. Martin Schindler, 2009. "Measuring Financial Integration: A New Data Set," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 56(1), pages 222-238, April.
  9. Gruber, Joseph W. & Kamin, Steven B., 2007. "Explaining the global pattern of current account imbalances," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(4), pages 500-522, June.
  10. Chinn, Menzie D. & Prasad, Eswar S., 2003. "Medium-term determinants of current accounts in industrial and developing countries: an empirical exploration," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 59(1), pages 47-76, January.
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  14. Luis Felipe Céspedes & Roberto Chang & Andrés Velasco, 2012. "Financial Intermediation, Exchange Rates, and Unconventional Policy in an Open Economy," NBER Working Papers 18431, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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  16. Dennis Quinn & Martin Schindler & A Maria Toyoda, 2011. "Assessing Measures of Financial Openness and Integration," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 59(3), pages 488-522, August.
  17. Gabriele Galati & Piti Disyatat, 2005. "The effectiveness of foreign exchange intervention in emerging market countries: evidence from the Czech koruna," BIS Working Papers 172, Bank for International Settlements.
  18. Luca Antonio Ricci & Thierry Tressel & Dennis B. S. Reinhardt, 2010. "International Capital Flows and Development," IMF Working Papers 10/235, International Monetary Fund.
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Cited by:
  1. Bonatti, Luigi & Fracasso, Andrea, 2014. "Modeling the Transition Towards Renminbi's Full Convertibility: Implications for China’s Growth," MPRA Paper 54129, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  2. Tamim Bayoumi & Franziska Ohnsorge, 2013. "Do Inflows or Outflows Dominate? Global Implications of Capital Account Liberalization in China," IMF Working Papers 13/189, International Monetary Fund.
  3. Joseph E. Gagnon, 2013. "The Elephant Hiding in the Room: Currency Intervention and Trade Imbalances," Working Paper Series WP13-2, Peterson Institute for International Economics.

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