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Investment, Valuation, and Growth Options

Author

Listed:
  • Andrew B. Abel

    (The Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania and National Bureau of Economic Research, USA)

  • Janice C. Eberly

    (Kellogg School of Management, Northwestern University, USA)

Abstract

We develop a model in which the opportunity for a firm to upgrade its technology to the frontier (at a cost) leads to growth options in the firm's value; that is, a firm's value is the sum of value generated by its current technology plus the value of the option to upgrade. Variation in the technological frontier leads to variation in firm value that is unrelated to current cash flow and investment, though variation in firm value anticipates future upgrades and investment. We simulate this model and show that, consistent with the empirical literature, in situations in which growth options are important, regressions of investment on Tobin'sQand cash flow yield small positive coefficients onQand larger coefficients on cash flow. We also show that growth options increase the volatility of firm value relative to the volatility of cash flow.

Suggested Citation

  • Andrew B. Abel & Janice C. Eberly, 2012. "Investment, Valuation, and Growth Options," Quarterly Journal of Finance (QJF), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 2(01), pages 1-32.
    • Handle: RePEc:wsi:qjfxxx:v:02:y:2012:i:01:n:s2010139212500012
    DOI: 10.1142/S2010139212500012
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Steven M. Fazzari & R. Glenn Hubbard & Bruce C. Petersen, 1988. "Financing Constraints and Corporate Investment," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 19(1), pages 141-206.
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    Cited by:

    1. Cao, Dan & Lorenzoni, Guido & Walentin, Karl, 2019. "Financial frictions, investment, and Tobin’s q," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 103(C), pages 105-122.
    2. Lin, Xiaoji & Palazzo, Berardino & Yang, Fan, 2020. "The risks of old capital age: Asset pricing implications of technology adoption," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 115(C), pages 145-161.
    3. Ward, Colin, 2020. "Is the IT revolution over? An asset pricing view," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 114(C), pages 283-316.
    4. Erin Cottle Hunt & Frank N. Caliendo, 2022. "Social security and longevity risk: An analysis of couples," Journal of Public Economic Theory, Association for Public Economic Theory, vol. 24(3), pages 547-579, June.
    5. Caliendo, Frank N. & Gorry, Aspen & Slavov, Sita, 2019. "The cost of uncertainty about the timing of Social Security reform," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 118(C), pages 101-125.
    6. Kilponen, Juha & Verona, Fabio, 2022. "Investment dynamics and forecast: Mind the frequency," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 49(C).

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