IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/wly/jintdv/v17y2005i7p841-866.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

How does political violence affect confidence in a local currency? Evidence from Egypt

Author

Listed:
  • David Fielding

    (University of Otago, Dunedin NZ and Centre for the Study of African Economies, University of Oxford, UK)

  • Anja Shortland

    (University of Leicester, UK)

Abstract

In this paper we estimate a time-series model of the financial asset portfolio shares in Egypt, distinguishing between assets of varying degrees of liquidity and between domestic currency and foreign currency deposits. While financial liberalization and financial stability are found to have encouraged domestic residents to increase the share of their portfolio composed of domestic currency assets, these effects have been offset by an increase in the number of violent political incidents arising from conflict between radical Islamic groups and the Egyptian state. Greater violence has led to lower domestic asset demand and substitution into foreign currency deposits. The link between political events and financial outcomes provides a rationale for economic policy interventions by Bretton Woods institutions in response to increases in political instability. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Suggested Citation

  • David Fielding & Anja Shortland, 2005. "How does political violence affect confidence in a local currency? Evidence from Egypt," Journal of International Development, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 17(7), pages 841-866.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:jintdv:v:17:y:2005:i:7:p:841-866
    DOI: 10.1002/jid.1182
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1002/jid.1182
    File Function: Link to full text; subscription required
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1002/jid.1182?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Lensink, Robert & Hermes, Niels & Murinde, Victor, 2000. "Capital flight and political risk," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 19(1), pages 73-92, February.
    2. Agenor, Pierre-Richard & Khan, Mohsin S., 1996. "Foreign currency deposits and the demand for money in developing countries," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(1), pages 101-118, June.
    3. Mohamed El-Erian, 1988. "Currency Substitution in Egypt and the Yemen Arab Republic: A Comparative Quantitative Analysis," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 35(1), pages 85-103, March.
    4. Alesina, Alberto & Tabellini, Guido, 1989. "External debt, capital flight and political risk," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 27(3-4), pages 199-220, November.
    5. Allan Drazen & Paul R. Masson, 1994. "Credibility of Policies Versus Credibility of Policymakers," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 109(3), pages 735-754.
    6. Ndikumana, Leonce & Boyce, James K., 2003. "Public Debts and Private Assets: Explaining Capital Flight from Sub-Saharan African Countries," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 31(1), pages 107-130, January.
    7. M. Hashem Pesaran & Yongcheol Shin & Richard J. Smith, 2001. "Bounds testing approaches to the analysis of level relationships," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(3), pages 289-326.
    8. J. H. C. Lisman & J. Sandee, 1964. "Derivation of Quarterly Figures from Annual Data," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series C, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 13(2), pages 87-90, June.
    9. Mr. Ghiath Shabsigh & Ilker Domaç, 1999. "Real Exchange Rate Behavior and Economic Growth: Evidence from Egypt, Jordan, Morocco, and Tunisia," IMF Working Papers 1999/040, International Monetary Fund.
    10. repec:dgr:rugsom:98c34 is not listed on IDEAS
    11. Maurice Obstfeld, 1994. "The Logic of Currency Crises," NBER Working Papers 4640, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    12. Bussiere, Matthieu & Mulder, Christian, 2000. "Political Instability and Economic Vulnerability," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 5(4), pages 309-330, October.
    13. Fielding, David & Mizen, Paul, 2001. "Seigniorage revenue, deficits and self-fulfilling currency crises," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 65(1), pages 81-93, June.
    14. Cuthbertson, Keith & Taylor, Mark P, 1987. "The Demand for Money: A Dynamic Rational Expectations Model," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 97(388a), pages 65-76, Supplemen.
    15. Bensaid, Bernard & Jeanne, Olivier, 1997. "The instability of fixed exchange rate systems when raising the nominal interest rate is costly," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 41(8), pages 1461-1478, August.
    16. Hansen, Bruce E., 1992. "Testing for parameter instability in linear models," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 14(4), pages 517-533, August.
    17. Mizen, Paul, 1999. "Can foreign currency deposits prop up a collapsing exchange-rate regime?," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 58(2), pages 553-562, April.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Jean-Pierre Allegret & Marie-Noëlle Calès, 2001. "Attaques spéculatives et crédibilité du régime de change. Quel arbitrage pour le policy-mix ?," Revue économique, Presses de Sciences-Po, vol. 52(2), pages 249-264.
    2. Brana, Sophie & Chenaf-Nicet, Dalila, 2001. "Indicateurs avancés de crise de change : un examen critique," L'Actualité Economique, Société Canadienne de Science Economique, vol. 77(4), pages 569-592, décembre.
    3. Obstfeld, Maurice, 1996. "Models of currency crises with self-fulfilling features," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 40(3-5), pages 1037-1047, April.
    4. Sylvester C. W. Eijffinger & Benedikt Goderis, 2008. "The Effect of Monetary Policy on Exchange Rates during Currency Crises: the Role of Debt, Institutions, and Financial Openness," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 16(3), pages 559-575, August.
    5. Rajan, Ramkishen S. & Sugema, Iman, 2000. "Government bailouts and monetary disequilibrium: common fundamentals in the Mexican and East Asian currency crises," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 11(2), pages 123-135, December.
    6. Sachs, Jeffrey & Tornell, Aaron & Velasco, Andres, 1996. "The Mexican peso crisis: Sudden death or death foretold?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(3-4), pages 265-283, November.
    7. Amor, Thouraya Hadj & Nouira, Ridha & Rault, Christophe & Sova, Anamaria Diana, 2023. "Real exchange rate misalignments and economic growth in Tunisia: New evidence from a threshold analysis of asymmetric adjustments," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 215-227.
    8. Beja Jr, Edsel, 2010. "Balance of Payments-consistent unreported flows," MPRA Paper 21699, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    9. Anja Shortland, 2004. "The Role of Politics and Institutions in LDC Currency Devaluations," Discussion Papers in Economics 04/30, Division of Economics, School of Business, University of Leicester.
    10. Heydari, Hassan & Jariani, Farzaneh, 2020. "Analyzing Effective Factors of Capital Outflow from the Middle East and North African Countries (MENA)," MPRA Paper 104547, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    11. Adeniji, Sesan, 2013. "Investigating the Relationship between Currency Substitution, Exchange Rate and Inflation in Nigeria: An Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) Approach," MPRA Paper 52551, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 28 Dec 2013.
    12. Agenor, Pierre-Richard & Khan, Mohsin S., 1996. "Foreign currency deposits and the demand for money in developing countries," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(1), pages 101-118, June.
    13. Cavallari, Lilia & Corsetti, Giancarlo, 2000. "Shadow rates and multiple equilibria in the theory of currency crises," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(2), pages 275-286, August.
    14. Caporale, Guglielmo Maria & Cipollini, Andrea & Demetriades, Panicos O., 2005. "Monetary policy and the exchange rate during the Asian crisis: identification through heteroscedasticity," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(1), pages 39-53, February.
    15. de Bandt, Olivier & Hartmann, Philipp, 2000. "Systemic Risk: A Survey," CEPR Discussion Papers 2634, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    16. Simón Sosvilla‐Rivero & Francisco Pérez‐Bermejo, 2008. "Political and Institutional Factors in Regime Changes in the ERM: An Application of Duration Analysis," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 31(8), pages 1049-1077, August.
    17. Jeanne, Olivier, 1997. "Are currency crises self-fulfilling?: A test," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(3-4), pages 263-286, November.
    18. David Fielding & Anja Shortland, 2005. "Political Violence and Excess Liquidity in Egypt," Journal of Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 41(4), pages 542-557.
    19. Drazen, Allan, 2000. "Interest-rate and borrowing defense against speculative attack," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 53(1), pages 303-348, December.
    20. Fielding, David & Mizen, Paul, 2001. "Seigniorage revenue, deficits and self-fulfilling currency crises," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 65(1), pages 81-93, June.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:wly:jintdv:v:17:y:2005:i:7:p:841-866. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Wiley Content Delivery (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www3.interscience.wiley.com/journal/5102/home .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.