How does political violence affect confidence in a local currency? Evidence from Egypt
AbstractIn this paper we estimate a time-series model of the financial asset portfolio shares in Egypt, distinguishing between assets of varying degrees of liquidity and between domestic currency and foreign currency deposits. While financial liberalization and financial stability are found to have encouraged domestic residents to increase the share of their portfolio composed of domestic currency assets, these effects have been offset by an increase in the number of violent political incidents arising from conflict between radical Islamic groups and the Egyptian state. Greater violence has led to lower domestic asset demand and substitution into foreign currency deposits. The link between political events and financial outcomes provides a rationale for economic policy interventions by Bretton Woods institutions in response to increases in political instability. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. in its journal Journal of International Development.
Volume (Year): 17 (2005)
Issue (Month): 7 ()
Contact details of provider:
Web page: http://www3.interscience.wiley.com/journal/5102/home
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- repec:imf:imfpdp:9811 is not listed on IDEAS
- Drazen, Allan & Masson, Paul R, 1994.
"Credibility of Policies versus Credibility of Policymakers,"
The Quarterly Journal of Economics,
MIT Press, vol. 109(3), pages 735-54, August.
- Allan Drazen & Paul R. Masson, 1993. "Credibility of Policies versus Credibility of Policymakers," NBER Working Papers 4448, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Paul R. Masson & Allan Drazen, 1994. "Credibility of Policies Versus Credibility of Policymakers," IMF Working Papers 94/49, International Monetary Fund.
- Fielding, David & Mizen, Paul, 2001. "Seigniorage revenue, deficits and self-fulfilling currency crises," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 65(1), pages 81-93, June.
- Bensaid, Bernard & Jeanne, Olivier, 1997.
"The instability of fixed exchange rate systems when raising the nominal interest rate is costly,"
European Economic Review,
Elsevier, vol. 41(8), pages 1461-1478, August.
- Bensaid, B.B. & Jeanne, O., 1995. "The Instability of Fixed Exchange Rate Systems when Raising the Nominal Interest Rate is Costly," Papers 9536, Tilburg - Center for Economic Research.
- Lensink, Robert & Hermes, Niels & Murinde, Victor, 1998.
"Capital flight and political risk,"
98C34, University of Groningen, Research Institute SOM (Systems, Organisations and Management).
- Mohsin S. Khan & Pierre-Richard AgÃ©nor, 1992.
"Foreign Currency Deposits and the Demand for Money in Developing Countries,"
IMF Working Papers
92/1, International Monetary Fund.
- Agenor, Pierre-Richard & Khan, Mohsin S., 1996. "Foreign currency deposits and the demand for money in developing countries," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(1), pages 101-118, June.
- Quan Le & Paul J. Zak, 2001. "Political Risk and Capital Flight," Claremont Colleges Working Papers 2001-10, Claremont Colleges.
- Léonce Ndikumana, 2002.
"Public Debts and Private Assets:Explaining Capital Flight from Sub-Saharan African Countries,"
wp32, Political Economy Research Institute, University of Massachusetts at Amherst.
- Ndikumana, Leonce & Boyce, James K., 2003. "Public Debts and Private Assets: Explaining Capital Flight from Sub-Saharan African Countries," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 31(1), pages 107-130, January.
- Léonce Ndikumana & James K. Boyce, 2002. "Public Debts and Private Assets: Explaining Capital Flight from Sub-Saharan African Countries," UMASS Amherst Economics Working Papers 2002-02, University of Massachusetts Amherst, Department of Economics.
- Christian B. Mulder & Matthieu BussiÃ¨re, 1999.
"Political Instability and Economic Vulnerability,"
IMF Working Papers
99/46, International Monetary Fund.
- Mizen, Paul, 1999. "Can foreign currency deposits prop up a collapsing exchange-rate regime?," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 58(2), pages 553-562, April.
- Cuthbertson, Keith & Taylor, Mark P, 1987. "The Demand for Money: A Dynamic Rational Expectations Model," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 97(388a), pages 65-76, Supplemen.
- Mohamed El-Erian, 1988. "Currency Substitution in Egypt and the Yemen Arab Republic: A Comparative Quantitative Analysis," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 35(1), pages 85-103, March.
- Hansen, Bruce E., 1992.
"Testing for parameter instability in linear models,"
Journal of Policy Modeling,
Elsevier, vol. 14(4), pages 517-533, August.
- Tom Doan, . "STABTEST: RATS procedure to perform Hansen's stability test for OLS," Statistical Software Components RTS00199, Boston College Department of Economics.
- Maurice Obstfeld, 1994. "The Logic of Currency Crises," NBER Working Papers 4640, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- M. Hashem Pesaran & Yongcheol Shin & Richard J. Smith, 2001. "Bounds testing approaches to the analysis of level relationships," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(3), pages 289-326.
- Ghiath Shabsigh & Ilker DomaÃ§, 1999. "Real Exchange Rate Behavior and Economic Growth," IMF Working Papers 99/40, International Monetary Fund.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Wiley-Blackwell Digital Licensing) or (Christopher F. Baum).
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.