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Capital Buffers in a Quantitative Model of Banking Industry Dynamics

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  • Dean Corbae
  • Pablo D'Erasmo

Abstract

We develop a model of banking industry dynamics to study the quantitative impact of regulatory policies on bank risk‐taking and market structure. Since our model is matched to U.S. data, we propose a market structure where big banks with market power interact with small, competitive fringe banks as well as non‐bank lenders. Banks face idiosyncratic funding shocks in addition to aggregate shocks which affect the fraction of performing loans in their portfolio. A nontrivial bank size distribution arises out of endogenous entry and exit, as well as banks' buffer stock of capital. We show that the model predictions are consistent with untargeted business cycle properties, the bank lending channel, and empirical studies of the role of concentration on financial stability. We find that regulatory policies can have an important impact on banking market structure, which, along with selection effects, can generate changes in allocative efficiency and stability.

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  • Dean Corbae & Pablo D'Erasmo, 2021. "Capital Buffers in a Quantitative Model of Banking Industry Dynamics," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 89(6), pages 2975-3023, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:emetrp:v:89:y:2021:i:6:p:2975-3023
    DOI: 10.3982/ECTA16930
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    1. Bonaccorsi di Patti, Emilia & Moscatelli, Mirko & Pietrosanti, Stefano, 2023. "The impact of bank regulation on the cost of credit: Evidence from a discontinuity in capital requirements," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 55(C).
    2. Jason Allen & Milena Wittwer, 2023. "Intermediary Market Power and Capital Constraints," Staff Working Papers 23-51, Bank of Canada.
    3. Lang, Jan Hannes & Menno, Dominik, 2023. "The state-dependent impact of changes in bank capital requirements," Discussion Papers 19/2023, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    4. Greg Buchak & Gregor Matvos & Tomasz Piskorski & Amit Seru, 2023. "Aggregate Lending and Modern Financial Intermediation: Why Bank Balance Sheet Models Are Miscalibrated," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2023, volume 38, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Claeys, Grégory & Papioti, Chara & Tryphonides, Andreas, 2023. "Liquidity risk, market power and the informational effects of policy," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 142(C).
    6. Skander Van den Heuvel, 2019. "The Welfare Effects of Bank Liquidity and Capital Requirements," 2019 Meeting Papers 325, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    7. Chenzi Yang & Fernando Moreira & Thomas Welsh Archibald, 2023. "Community banks' capital requirements and regional housing tenure," Australian Economic Papers, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 62(4), pages 723-746, December.
    8. Ogawa, Toshiaki, 2022. "Welfare implications of bank capital requirements under dynamic default decisions," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 138(C).
    9. Giampaolo Bonomi & Ali Uppal, 2023. "Kites and Quails: Monetary Policy and Communication with Strategic Financial Markets," Papers 2305.08958, arXiv.org.
    10. Ahmad Peivandi & Mohammad Abbas Rezaei & Ajay Subramanian, 2023. "Optimal design of bank regulation under aggregate risk," Mathematics and Financial Economics, Springer, volume 17, number 2, June.
    11. Sears, Louis S. & Lawell, C.Y. Cynthia Lin & Torres, Gerald & Walter, M. Todd, 2022. "Moment-based Markov Equilibrium Estimation of High-Dimension Dynamic Games: An Application to Groundwater Management in California," 2022 Annual Meeting, July 31-August 2, Anaheim, California 322187, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    12. Alessandro Villa, 2022. "Credit Misallocation and Macro Dynamics with Oligopolistic Financial Intermediaries," Working Paper Series WP 2022-41, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
    13. Ferrero, Andrea & Harrison, Richard & Nelson, Benjamin, 2018. "House Price Dynamics, Optimal LTV Limits and the Liquidity Trap," CEPR Discussion Papers 13400, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    14. NAKASHIMA, KIYOTAKA & Ogawa, Toshiaki, 2021. "The Impacts of Strengthening Regulatory Surveillance on Bank Behavior: A Dynamic Analysis from Incomplete to Complete Enforcement of Capital Regulation in Microprudential Policy," MPRA Paper 109147, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    15. Axelle Arquié, 2023. "Fire Sales and Bank Runs in the Presence of a Saving Allocation by Depositors," Working Papers 2023-09, CEPII research center.
    16. Yifei Wang & Toni M. Whited & Yufeng Wu & Kairong Xiao, 2022. "Bank Market Power and Monetary Policy Transmission: Evidence from a Structural Estimation," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 77(4), pages 2093-2141, August.
    17. van der Kwaak, Christiaan & Madeira, João & Palma, Nuno, 2023. "The long-run effects of risk: an equilibrium approach," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 153(C).
    18. Altermatt, Lukas & Wang, Zijian, 2021. "Oligopoly Banking, Risky Investment, and Monetary Policy," Economics Discussion Papers 30728, University of Essex, Department of Economics.
    19. Brausewetter, Lars & Ludolph, Melina, 2023. "Distributional income effects of banking regulation in Europe," IWH Discussion Papers 24/2023, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH).

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
    • L11 - Industrial Organization - - Market Structure, Firm Strategy, and Market Performance - - - Production, Pricing, and Market Structure; Size Distribution of Firms

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