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El efecto de China en el comercio internacional de América Latina

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  • Claudio E. Montenegro
  • Mariana Pereira
  • Isidro Soloaga

    ()

Abstract

Haciendo uso de modelos gravitacionales, se analizan los flujos agregados de comercio con el fin de identificar los efectos de China sobre el comercio de América Latina. Entre las principales conclusiones se encuentran las siguientes: i) El crecimiento del mercado chino no fue desaprovechado por los países de América Latina; ii) A nivel agregado no se encontró que las importaciones que los socios comerciales latinoamericanos hacen de China hayan desplazado a las importaciones que éstos hacen de América Latina; iii) Sólo hay una asociación positiva entre importaciones de China y exportaciones a terceros mercados en el caso del Cono Sur.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by University of Chile, Department of Economics in its journal Estudios de Economia.

Volume (Year): 38 (2011)
Issue (Month): 2 Year 2011 (December)
Pages: 341-368

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Handle: RePEc:udc:esteco:v:38:y:2011:i:2:p:341-368

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Web page: http://www.econ.uchile.cl/
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Keywords: Comercio bilateral; Modelo gravitacional; Regresión Poisson; China; América Latina.;

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  1. Rubinstein, Yona & Helpman, Elhanan & Melitz, Marc, 2008. "Estimating Trade Flows: Trading Partners and Trading Volumes," Scholarly Articles 3228230, Harvard University Department of Economics.
  2. Helble, Matthias & Okubo, Toshihiro, 2008. "Heterogeneous quality firms and trade costs," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4550, The World Bank.
  3. Alan Deardorff, 1998. "Determinants of Bilateral Trade: Does Gravity Work in a Neoclassical World?," NBER Chapters, in: The Regionalization of the World Economy, pages 7-32 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  4. Soloaga, Isidro & Winters, L. Alan, 1999. "Regionalism in the Nineties: What Effect on Trade?," CEPR Discussion Papers 2183, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  5. Feenstra, Robert & Markusen, James R. & Rose, Andrew K, 1998. "Understanding the Home Market Effect and the Gravity Equation: The Role of Differentiating Goods," CEPR Discussion Papers 2035, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  6. Jenkins, Rhys & Peters, Enrique Dussel & Moreira, Mauricio Mesquita, 2008. "The Impact of China on Latin America and the Caribbean," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 36(2), pages 235-253, February.
  7. Claudio E.Montenegro & Isidro Soloaga, 2006. "Nafta´s trade efects: new evidence with a gravity model," Estudios de Economia, University of Chile, Department of Economics, vol. 33(1 Year 20), pages 45-63, June.
  8. Baltagi, Badi H. & Egger, Peter & Pfaffermayr, Michael, 2003. "A generalized design for bilateral trade flow models," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 80(3), pages 391-397, September.
  9. James E. Anderson & Eric van Wincoop, 2000. "Gravity with Gravitas: A Solution to the Border Puzzle," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 485, Boston College Department of Economics.
  10. Anderson, James E, 1979. "A Theoretical Foundation for the Gravity Equation," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 69(1), pages 106-16, March.
  11. Jeffrey M Wooldridge, 2010. "Econometric Analysis of Cross Section and Panel Data," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 2, volume 1, number 0262232588, December.
  12. McCallum, John, 1995. "National Borders Matter: Canada-U.S. Regional Trade Patterns," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 85(3), pages 615-23, June.
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