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Nafta´s trade efects: new evidence with a gravity model

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Author Info

  • Claudio E.Montenegro
  • Isidro Soloaga

    ()

Abstract

This paper estimates econometrically the impact of NAFTA on US-Mexico and US-third countries (groups of countries) trade flows. Using a traditional gravity-equation framework, we try to see to what extent the bilateral trade flows between the US and different countries differ from a gravity-type specification. By incorporating a series of dummy variables into the specification, we interpret the changes in these dummy variables over time as evidence on whether NAFTA affected the trade patterns. The main conclusion is that NAFTA did not have a significant effect on US trade patterns, neither with Mexico nor with other countries in the world (with exception of CACM).

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File URL: http://www.econ.uchile.cl/uploads/publicacion/b721c9df-f6a8-4a61-a8f5-79ddb0298325.pdf
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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by University of Chile, Department of Economics in its journal Estudios de Economia.

Volume (Year): 33 (2006)
Issue (Month): 1 Year 2006 (June)
Pages: 45-63

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Handle: RePEc:udc:esteco:v:33:y:2006:i:1:p:45-63

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Web page: http://www.econ.uchile.cl/
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Related research

Keywords: NAFTA; Gravity Model; Trade Diversion; Fixed Effects.;

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References

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  1. Anne O. Krueger, 2000. "NAFTA's Effects: A Preliminary Assessment," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 23(6), pages 761-775, 06.
  2. James E. Anderson & Eric van Wincoop, 2001. "Gravity with Gravitas: A Solution to the Border Puzzle," NBER Working Papers 8079, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. repec:fth:geneec:93.10 is not listed on IDEAS
  4. Kyoji Fukao & Toshihiro Okubo & Robert M. Stern, 2002. "An Econometric Analysis of Trade Diversion under NAFTA," Discussion papers 02011, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).
  5. Manishi Prasad & Peter Wahlqvist & Rich Shikiar & Ya-Chen Tina Shih, 2004. "A," PharmacoEconomics, Springer Healthcare | Adis, vol. 22(4), pages 225-244.
  6. de Melo, Jaime & Montenegro, Claudio & Panagariya, Arvind, 1992. "Regional integration, old and new," Policy Research Working Paper Series 985, The World Bank.
  7. Soloaga, Isidro & Winters, L. Alan, 1999. "Regionalism in the Nineties: What Effect on Trade?," CEPR Discussion Papers 2183, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  8. Faezeh Foroutan, 1998. "Does Membership in a Regional Preferential Trade Arrangement Make a Country More or Less Protectionist?," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 21(3), pages 305-335, 05.
  9. Andrew K. Rose & Eric van Wincoop, 2001. "National Money as a Barrier to International Trade: The Real Case for Currency Union," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(2), pages 386-390, May.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Claudio E. Montenegro & Mariana Pereira & Isidro Soloaga, 2010. "China’s effect on Latin America’s international trade," Serie documentos de trabajo del Centro de Estudios Económicos 2010-08, El Colegio de México, Centro de Estudios Económicos.
  2. Muhammad Ullah & Kazuo Inaba, 2012. "Impact of RTA and PTA on Bangladesh’s Export: Application of a Gravity Model," Journal of Industry, Competition and Trade, Springer, vol. 12(4), pages 445-460, December.
  3. Claudio E. Montenegro & Mariana Pereira & Isidro Soloaga, 2011. "El efecto de China en el comercio internacional de América Latina," Estudios de Economia, University of Chile, Department of Economics, vol. 38(2 Year 20), pages 341-368, December.

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