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Price Transmission between Energy and Fish Markets: Are Oil Rates Good Predictors of Tuna Prices?

Author

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  • Patrice Guillotreau
  • Frédéric Lantz
  • Lesya Nadzon
  • Jonathan Rault
  • Olivier Maury

Abstract

Because most food processes are fossil fuel–based, many food markets are more or less connected to the oil market. Fishing technology in the high seas being energy-intensive, higher oil prices should affect the fish markets. This research looks at price transmission between marine diesel oil and a global fishery commodity, frozen skipjack tuna (Katsuwonus pelamis) through a time series analysis combining four different methods to look for possible structural breaks and regime shifts in the relationship (Bai-Perron, Lavielle, Gregory-Hansen, Markov-switching). Our results prove that the long-run equilibrium between both prices is weakening after the turn of the 2010s. Explaining the drivers of change is of great interest for short-term forecast but also to build long-term scenarios where both supply and demand variables are likely to affect tuna markets.

Suggested Citation

  • Patrice Guillotreau & Frédéric Lantz & Lesya Nadzon & Jonathan Rault & Olivier Maury, 2023. "Price Transmission between Energy and Fish Markets: Are Oil Rates Good Predictors of Tuna Prices?," Marine Resource Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 38(1), pages 29-46.
    • Handle: RePEc:ucp:mresec:doi:10.1086/722490
    DOI: 10.1086/722490
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