IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/ucp/jpolec/doi10.1086-713729.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Hysteresis and the Welfare Effect of Corrective Policies: Theory and Evidence from an Energy-Saving Program

Author

Listed:
  • Francisco Costa
  • François Gerard

Abstract

This paper provides stark evidence of hysteresis—the failure of an effect to reverse itself as its underlying cause is reversed—in energy demand. We estimate that half of the 23% reduction in residential electricity use caused by a 9-month-long policy that was imposed on millions of Brazilians has persisted for at least 12 years. We examine the implications of our finding by extending the traditional welfare analysis of corrective policies to allow for hysteresis. Our estimate highlights that failing to take hysteresis into account could severely bias the welfare evaluation of policies aimed at reducing (long-run) energy demand.

Suggested Citation

  • Francisco Costa & François Gerard, 2021. "Hysteresis and the Welfare Effect of Corrective Policies: Theory and Evidence from an Energy-Saving Program," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 129(6), pages 1705-1743.
    • Handle: RePEc:ucp:jpolec:doi:10.1086/713729
    DOI: 10.1086/713729
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1086/713729
    Download Restriction: Access to the online full text or PDF requires a subscription.
    File URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1086/713729
    Download Restriction: Access to the online full text or PDF requires a subscription.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1086/713729?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version below or search for a different version of it.

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Michael Greenstone & Rema Hanna, 2014. "Environmental Regulations, Air and Water Pollution, and Infant Mortality in India," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 104(10), pages 3038-3072, October.
    2. Catherine Wolfram & Orie Shelef & Paul Gertler, 2012. "How Will Energy Demand Develop in the Developing World?," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 26(1), pages 119-138, Winter.
    3. Levinson, Arik, 2014. "California energy efficiency: Lessons for the rest of the world, or not?," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 107(PA), pages 269-289.
    4. Hunt Allcott & Dmitry Taubinsky, 2015. "Evaluating Behaviorally Motivated Policy: Experimental Evidence from the Lightbulb Market," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 105(8), pages 2501-2538, August.
    5. Shaun Larcom & Ferdinand Rauch & Tim Willems, 2017. "The Benefits of Forced Experimentation: Striking Evidence from the London Underground Network," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 132(4), pages 2019-2055.
    6. Raj Chetty, 2009. "Sufficient Statistics for Welfare Analysis: A Bridge Between Structural and Reduced-Form Methods," Annual Review of Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 1(1), pages 451-488, May.
    7. Koichiro Ito, 2015. "Asymmetric Incentives in Subsidies: Evidence from a Large-Scale Electricity Rebate Program," American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, American Economic Association, vol. 7(3), pages 209-237, August.
    8. Hunt Allcott & Judd B. Kessler, 2019. "The Welfare Effects of Nudges: A Case Study of Energy Use Social Comparisons," American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, American Economic Association, vol. 11(1), pages 236-276, January.
    9. Thomas Fujiwara & Kyle C. Meng & Tom Vogl, 2013. "Estimating Habit Formation in Voting," NBER Working Papers 19721, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    10. Gharad Bryan & Shyamal Chowdhury & Ahmed Mushfiq Mobarak, 2014. "Underinvestment in a Profitable Technology: The Case of Seasonal Migration in Bangladesh," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 82(5), pages 1671-1748, September.
    11. Alec Brandon & Paul Ferraro & John List & Robert Metcalfe & Michael Price & Florian Rundhammer, 2017. "Do the effects of social nudges persist? Theory and evidence from 38 natural field experiments," Natural Field Experiments 00598, The Field Experiments Website.
    12. Xavier Giné & Dean Karlan & Jonathan Zinman, 2010. "Put Your Money Where Your Butt Is: A Commitment Contract for Smoking Cessation," American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, American Economic Association, vol. 2(4), pages 213-235, October.
    13. Orley Ashenfelter & Michael Greenstone, 2004. "Using Mandated Speed Limits to Measure the Value of a Statistical Life," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 112(S1), pages 226-267, February.
    14. Peter C. Reiss & Matthew W. White, 2008. "What changes energy consumption? Prices and public pressures," RAND Journal of Economics, RAND Corporation, vol. 39(3), pages 636-663, September.
    15. Severin Borenstein & James B. Bushnell, 2022. "Do Two Electricity Pricing Wrongs Make a Right? Cost Recovery, Externalities, and Efficiency," American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, American Economic Association, vol. 14(4), pages 80-110, November.
    16. Alec Brandon & Paul J. Ferraro & John A. List & Robert D. Metcalfe & Michael K. Price & Florian Rundhammer, 2017. "Do The Effects of Nudges Persist? Theory and Evidence from 38 Natural Field Experiments," NBER Working Papers 23277, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    17. Dubin, Jeffrey A & McFadden, Daniel L, 1984. "An Econometric Analysis of Residential Electric Appliance Holdings and Consumption," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 52(2), pages 345-362, March.
    18. Alan Barreca & Karen Clay & Olivier Deschenes & Michael Greenstone & Joseph S. Shapiro, 2016. "Adapting to Climate Change: The Remarkable Decline in the US Temperature-Mortality Relationship over the Twentieth Century," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 124(1), pages 105-159.
    19. Paul J. Ferraro & Michael K. Price, 2013. "Using Nonpecuniary Strategies to Influence Behavior: Evidence from a Large-Scale Field Experiment," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 95(1), pages 64-73, March.
    20. Lucas W. Davis & Alan Fuchs & Paul Gertler, 2014. "Cash for Coolers: Evaluating a Large-Scale Appliance Replacement Program in Mexico," American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, American Economic Association, vol. 6(4), pages 207-238, November.
    21. Hunt Allcott & Todd Rogers, 2014. "The Short-Run and Long-Run Effects of Behavioral Interventions: Experimental Evidence from Energy Conservation," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 104(10), pages 3003-3037, October.
    22. Koichiro Ito & Takanori Ida & Makoto Tanaka, 2018. "Moral Suasion and Economic Incentives: Field Experimental Evidence from Energy Demand," American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, American Economic Association, vol. 10(1), pages 240-267, February.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Mattauch, Linus & Hepburn, Cameron & Stern, Nicholas, 2018. "Pigou pushes preferences: decarbonisation and endogenous values," INET Oxford Working Papers 2018-16, Institute for New Economic Thinking at the Oxford Martin School, University of Oxford.
    2. Cardella, Eric & Ewing, Brad & Williams, Ryan Blake, 2018. "Green is Good – The Impact of Information Nudges on the Adoption of Voluntary Green Power Plans," 2018 Annual Meeting, February 2-6, 2018, Jacksonville, Florida 266583, Southern Agricultural Economics Association.
    3. Browne, Oliver R. & Gazze, Ludovica & Greenstone, Michael & Olga Rostapshova, 2022. "Man vs. Machine : Technological Promise and Political Limits of Automated Regulation Enforcement," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) 1440, University of Warwick, Department of Economics.
    4. Gilbert, Ben & Graff Zivin, Joshua S., 2020. "Dynamic corrective taxes with time-varying salience," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 103(C).
    5. Mathieu Lefebvre & Anne Stenger, 2020. "Short- & long-term effects of monetary and non-monetary incentives to cooperate in public good games: An experiment," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 15(1), pages 1-17, January.
    6. Huse, Cristian & Lucinda, Claudio & Ribeiro, Andre, 2021. "Assessing the effects of a large temporary energy savings program: Evidence from a developing country," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 110(C).
    7. Donna, Javier D., 2018. "Measuring Long-Run Price Elasticities in Urban Travel Demand," MPRA Paper 90260, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. Do,Quy-Toan & Jacoby,Hanan G., 2020. "Sophisticated Policy with Naive Agents : Habit Formation and Piped Water in Vietnam," Policy Research Working Paper Series 9207, The World Bank.
    9. Koichiro Ito & Shuang Zhang, 2020. "Do Consumers Distinguish Fixed Cost from Variable Cost? “Schmeduling" in Two-Part Tariffs in Energy," NBER Working Papers 26853, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    10. Chi L. Ta, 2021. "Theoretical and Empirical Evaluation of a Competitive Energy Rebate Program," CESifo Working Paper Series 8948, CESifo.
    11. Costa, Francisco J M & Szerman, Dimitri & Assunção, Juliano, 2024. "The Environmental Costs of Political Interference: Evidence from Power Plants in the Amazon," SocArXiv 6y7vk, Center for Open Science.
    12. Mattauch, Linus & Hepburn, Cameron & Spuler, Fiona & Stern, Nicholas, 2022. "The economics of climate change with endogenous preferences," Resource and Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 69(C).
    13. Costa, Francisco J M & Szerman, Dimitri & Assunção, Juliano, 2018. "Local Economic Impacts of Hydroelectric Power Plants: Evidence from Brazil," SocArXiv kzhs6, Center for Open Science.
    14. ITO Koichiro & ZHANG Shuang, 2020. "Reforming Inefficient Energy Pricing: Evidence from China," Discussion papers 20062, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).
    15. Fetter, T. Robert, 2022. "Energy transitions and technology change: “Leapfrogging” reconsidered," Resource and Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 70(C).
    16. Cristian Huse & Claudio Lucinda, Andre Ribeiro, 2019. "The Impact of Incentives on the Energy Paradox: Evidence from Micro Data," Working Papers, Department of Economics 2019_39, University of São Paulo (FEA-USP), revised 16 Oct 2019.
    17. Thiemo Fetzer & Oliver Pardo & Amar Shanghavi, 2018. "More than an urban legend: the short- and long-run effects of unplanned fertility shocks," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 31(4), pages 1125-1176, October.
    18. Mathieu Lefebvre & Anne Stenger, 2016. "Long-lasting effects of temporary incentives in public good games," Working Papers of BETA 2016-25, Bureau d'Economie Théorique et Appliquée, UDS, Strasbourg.
    19. Ta, Chi L., 2020. "Does Competition for Energy Conservation Rebates Work?," 2020 Annual Meeting, July 26-28, Kansas City, Missouri 304245, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Eszter Czibor & David Jimenez‐Gomez & John A. List, 2019. "The Dozen Things Experimental Economists Should Do (More of)," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 86(2), pages 371-432, October.
    2. Andor, Mark A. & Gerster, Andreas & Peters, Jörg & Schmidt, Christoph M., 2020. "Social Norms and Energy Conservation Beyond the US," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 103(C).
    3. Matilde Giaccherini & David Herberich & David Jimenez-Gomez & John List & Giovanni Ponti & Michael Price, 2020. "Are Economics and Psychology Complements in Household Technology Diffusion? Evidence from a Natural Field Experiment," Natural Field Experiments 00713, The Field Experiments Website.
    4. Chi L. Ta, 2021. "Theoretical and Empirical Evaluation of a Competitive Energy Rebate Program," CESifo Working Paper Series 8948, CESifo.
    5. Myers, Erica & Souza, Mateus, 2020. "Social comparison nudges without monetary incentives: Evidence from home energy reports," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 101(C).
    6. Koichiro Ito & Shuang Zhang, 2020. "Do Consumers Distinguish Fixed Cost from Variable Cost? “Schmeduling" in Two-Part Tariffs in Energy," NBER Working Papers 26853, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. ITO Koichiro & ZHANG Shuang, 2020. "Reforming Inefficient Energy Pricing: Evidence from China," Discussion papers 20062, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).
    8. Jessoe, Katrina & Lade, Gabriel E. & Loge, Frank & Spang, Edward, 2021. "Residential water conservation during drought: Experimental evidence from three behavioral interventions," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 110(C).
    9. Brülisauer, Marcel & Goette, Lorenz & Jiang, Zhengyi & Schmitz, Jan & Schubert, Renate, 2020. "Appliance-specific feedback and social comparisons: Evidence from a field experiment on energy conservation," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 145(C).
    10. Tonke, Sebastian, 2020. "Imperfect Procedural Knowledge: Evidence from a Field Experiment to Encourage Water Conservation," VfS Annual Conference 2020 (Virtual Conference): Gender Economics 224536, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    11. Jeremy West & Robert W. Fairlie & Bryan Pratt & Liam Rose, 2021. "Automated Enforcement of Irrigation Regulations and Social Pressure for Water Conservation," Journal of the Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, University of Chicago Press, vol. 8(6), pages 1179-1207.
    12. Robert W. Hahn & Robert D. Metcalfe, 2021. "Efficiency and Equity Impacts of Energy Subsidies," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 111(5), pages 1658-1688, May.
    13. Stojanovski, Ognen & Leslie, Gordon W. & Wolak, Frank A. & Huerta Wong, Juan Enrique & Thurber, Mark C., 2020. "Increasing the energy cognizance of electricity consumers in Mexico: Results from a field experiment," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 102(C).
    14. Matilde Giaccherini & David H. Herberich & David Jimenez-Gomez & John A. List & Giovanni Ponti & Michael K. Price, 2019. "The Behavioralist Goes Door-To-Door: Understanding Household Technological Diffusion Using a Theory-Driven Natural Field Experiment," NBER Working Papers 26173, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    15. Andor, Mark A. & Gerster, Andreas & Peters, Jörg, 2022. "Information campaigns for residential energy conservation," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 144(C).
    16. Jesse Burkhardt & Kenneth Gillingham & Praveen K. Kopalle, 2019. "Experimental Evidence on the Effect of Information and Pricing on Residential Electricity Consumption," NBER Working Papers 25576, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    17. Ek, Claes & Söderberg, Magnus, 2021. "Norm-based feedback on household waste: Large-scale field experiments in two Swedish municipalities," Working Papers in Economics 804, University of Gothenburg, Department of Economics.
    18. Cardella, Eric & Ewing, Brad & Williams, Ryan Blake, 2018. "Green is Good – The Impact of Information Nudges on the Adoption of Voluntary Green Power Plans," 2018 Annual Meeting, February 2-6, 2018, Jacksonville, Florida 266583, Southern Agricultural Economics Association.
    19. Holladay, Scott & LaRiviere, Jacob & Novgorodsky, David & Price, Michael, 2019. "Prices versus nudges: What matters for search versus purchase of energy investments?," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 172(C), pages 151-173.
    20. Daniel A. Brent & Corey Lott & Michael Taylor & Joseph Cook & Kimberly Rollins & Shawn Stoddard, 2020. "What Causes Heterogeneous Responses to Social Comparison Messages for Water Conservation?," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 77(3), pages 503-537, November.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • D62 - Microeconomics - - Welfare Economics - - - Externalities
    • H23 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue - - - Externalities; Redistributive Effects; Environmental Taxes and Subsidies
    • Q50 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - General

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ucp:jpolec:doi:10.1086/713729. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Journals Division (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.journals.uchicago.edu/JPE .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.