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Adapting to Climate Change: The Remarkable Decline in the US Temperature-Mortality Relationship over the Twentieth Century

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  • Alan Barreca
  • Karen Clay
  • Olivier Deschenes
  • Michael Greenstone
  • Joseph S. Shapiro

Abstract

This paper examines the temperature-mortality relationship over the course of the twentieth-century United States both for its own interest and to identify potentially useful adaptations for coming decades. There are three primary findings. First, the mortality impact of days with mean temperature exceeding 80°F declined by 75 percent. Almost the entire decline occurred after 1960. Second, the diffusion of residential air conditioning explains essentially the entire decline in hot day-related fatalities. Third, using Dubin and McFadden's discrete-continuous model, the present value of US consumer surplus from the introduction of residential air conditioning is estimated to be $85-$185 billion (2012 dollars).

Suggested Citation

  • Alan Barreca & Karen Clay & Olivier Deschenes & Michael Greenstone & Joseph S. Shapiro, 2016. "Adapting to Climate Change: The Remarkable Decline in the US Temperature-Mortality Relationship over the Twentieth Century," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 124(1), pages 105-159.
  • Handle: RePEc:ucp:jpolec:doi:10.1086/684582
    DOI: 10.1086/684582
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    References listed on IDEAS

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