IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/ucp/jlawec/v44y2001i1p89-129.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Gradual Incorporation of Information: Pharmaceutical Stocks and the Evolution of President Clinton's Health Care Reform

Author

Listed:
  • Ellison, Sara Fisher
  • Mullin, Wallace P

Abstract

We examine the effect of the evolution of President Clinton's health care reform proposal over January 1992-October 1993 on pharmaceutical stock prices. We identify a 52.3 percent decline in market-adjusted prices, which we then associate with health care reform. Applying a new technique, isotonic regression, we find most of the decline occurred gradually. Much of the decline occurred as the Clinton plan adopted strategies to contain health care costs, including "managed competition" and implicit regulation. Indirect evidence suggests that the wealth lost by pharmaceutical companies may have been largely an anticipated transfer. Our results are relevant to understanding the likely effects of the Clinton plan and more recent proposals. Many other policy changes are marked by gradual public revelation of information, which may not be completely observable by a researcher. Our approach may uncover information about the anticipated effects of policies unavailable from a traditional event study. Copyright 2001 by the University of Chicago.

Suggested Citation

  • Ellison, Sara Fisher & Mullin, Wallace P, 2001. "Gradual Incorporation of Information: Pharmaceutical Stocks and the Evolution of President Clinton's Health Care Reform," Journal of Law and Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 44(1), pages 89-129, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:ucp:jlawec:v:44:y:2001:i:1:p:89-129
    DOI: 10.1086/320269
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1086/320269
    Download Restriction: Access to the online full text or PDF requires a subscription.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1086/320269?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Mitchell, Mark L & Stafford, Erik, 2000. "Managerial Decisions and Long-Term Stock Price Performance," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 73(3), pages 287-329, July.
    2. Bizjak, John M & Coles, Jeffrey L, 1995. "The Effect of Private Antitrust Litigation on the Stock-Market Valuation of the Firm," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 85(3), pages 436-461, June.
    3. Malatesta, Paul H., 1983. "The wealth effect of merger activity and the objective functions of merging firms," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 11(1-4), pages 155-181, April.
    4. Grossman, Gene M & Levinsohn, James A, 1989. "Import Competition and the Stock Market Return to Capital," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 79(5), pages 1065-1087, December.
    5. Weisbrod, Burton A, 1991. "The Health Care Quadrilemma: An Essay on Technological Change, Insurance, Quality of Care, and Cost Containment," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 29(2), pages 523-552, June.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Blog mentions

    As found by EconAcademics.org, the blog aggregator for Economics research:
    1. The Wicked Witch of the West Wing Brings on an SWP Acid Flashback Moment
      by The Professor in Streetwise Professor on 2015-09-22 01:23:24

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Ralph S. J. Koijen & Tomas J. Philipson & Harald Uhlig, 2016. "Financial Health Economics," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 84, pages 195-242, January.
    2. Georg Stadtmann, 2006. "Frequent News and Pure Signals: The Case of a Publicly Traded Football Club," Working Papers 0603, International Association of Sports Economists;North American Association of Sports Economists.
    3. Sara Fisher Ellison & Catherine Wolfram, 2001. "Pharmaceutical Prices and Political Activity," NBER Working Papers 8482, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. François-Xavier Delaloye & Michel Habib & Alexandre Ziegler, 2012. "Swiss banking secrecy: the stock market evidence," Financial Markets and Portfolio Management, Springer;Swiss Society for Financial Market Research, vol. 26(1), pages 143-176, March.
    5. Joseph Golec & Shantaram Hegde & John A. Vernon, 2005. "Pharmaceutical Stock Price Reactions to Price Constraint Threats and Firm-Level R&D Spending," NBER Working Papers 11229, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Vernon, John A. & Golec, Joseph H. & Lutter, Randall & Nardinelli, Clark, 2009. "An exploratory study of FDA new drug review times, prescription drug user fee acts, and R&D spending," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 49(4), pages 1260-1274, November.
    7. Carsten Croonenbroeck & Fabrizio Leonardo Monaco & Mads Julius Christensen, 2015. "Does Danish Football Club Brøndby Swim With the Fishes? An Application of the Reversed News Model," Journal of Sports Economics, , vol. 16(4), pages 425-433, May.
    8. Seth Freedman & Melissa Kearney & Mara Lederman, 2012. "Product Recalls, Imperfect Information, and Spillover Effects: Lessons from the Consumer Response to the 2007 Toy Recalls," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 94(2), pages 499-516, May.
    9. Ayers, Benjamin C & Cloyd, C Bryan & Robinson, John R, 2005. ""Read My Lips . . .": Does the Tax Rhetoric of Presidential Candidates Affect Security Prices?," Journal of Law and Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 48(1), pages 125-148, April.
    10. Joseph Golec & John Vernon, 2010. "Financial Effects of Pharmaceutical Price Regulation on R&D Spending by EU versus US Firms," PharmacoEconomics, Springer, vol. 28(8), pages 615-628, August.
    11. Stadtmann, Georg & Croonenbroeck, Carsten, 2019. "The ups and downs of Wirecard AG: An application of the reversed news model," Discussion Papers 414, European University Viadrina Frankfurt (Oder), Department of Business Administration and Economics.
    12. Joseph H. Golec & John A. Vernon, 2006. "European Pharmaceutical Price Regulation, Firm Profitability, and R&D Spending," NBER Working Papers 12676, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    13. Regan, Tracy L., 2008. "Generic entry, price competition, and market segmentation in the prescription drug market," International Journal of Industrial Organization, Elsevier, vol. 26(4), pages 930-948, July.
    14. Doran, Colin & Stratmann, Thomas, 2021. "How does liability affect prices? Railroad sparks and timber," International Review of Law and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 66(C).
    15. Croonenbroeck, Carsten & Monaco, Fabrizio Leonardo & Christensen, Mads Julius, 2012. "Does Danish football club Brøndby swim with the fishes? An application of the reversed news model," Discussion Papers 330, European University Viadrina Frankfurt (Oder), Department of Business Administration and Economics.
    16. Keith M. Drake & Martha A. Starr & Thomas G. McGuire, 2015. "Do "Reverse Payment" Settlements Constitute an Anticompetitive Pay-for-Delay?," International Journal of the Economics of Business, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 22(2), pages 173-200, July.
    17. Giaccotto, Carmelo & Santerre, Rexford E & Vernon, John A, 2005. "Drug Prices and Research and Development Investment Behavior in the Pharmaceutical Industry," Journal of Law and Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 48(1), pages 195-214, April.
    18. Keith M. Drake & Martha A. Starr & Thomas McGuire, 2014. "Do "Reverse Payment" Settlements of Brand-Generic Patent Disputes in the Pharmaceutical Industry Constitute an Anticompetitive Pay for Delay?," NBER Working Papers 20292, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    19. Gautier, Pieter A. & Siegmann, Arjen & Van Vuuren, Aico, 2009. "Terrorism and attitudes towards minorities: The effect of the Theo van Gogh murder on house prices in Amsterdam," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 65(2), pages 113-126, March.
    20. Linn, Joshua, 2010. "The effect of cap-and-trade programs on firms' profits: Evidence from the Nitrogen Oxides Budget Trading Program," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 59(1), pages 1-14, January.
    21. Stango, Victor, 2003. "Strategic Responses to Regulatory Threat in the Credit Card Market," Journal of Law and Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 46(2), pages 427-452, October.
    22. Sara Fisher Ellison & Catherine Wolfram, 2004. "Coordinating on Lower Prices: Pharmaceutical Pricing Under Political Pressure," Economics Working Papers 0048, Institute for Advanced Study, School of Social Science.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Bhabra, Harjeet S. & Hossain, Ashrafee T., 2017. "Impact of SOX on the returns to targets and acquirers in corporate tender offers," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 1-19.
    2. Navio-Marco, J & Solorzano-Garcia, M & Urueña, A., 2015. "Language As Key Factor Of Long-Term Value Creation In Mergers And Acquisitions In The Telecommunications Sector," 26th European Regional ITS Conference, Madrid 2015 127170, International Telecommunications Society (ITS).
    3. Kanungo, Rama Prasad, 2021. "Uncertainty of M&As under asymmetric estimation," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 122(C), pages 774-793.
    4. Navío-Marco, Julio & Solórzano-García, Marta & Matilla-García, Mariano & Urueña, Alberto, 2016. "Language as a key factor of long-term value creation in mergers and acquisitions in the telecommunications sector," Telecommunications Policy, Elsevier, vol. 40(10), pages 1052-1063.
    5. Hu, Nan & Li, Lu & Li, Hui & Wang, Xing, 2020. "Do mega-mergers create value? The acquisition experience and mega-deal outcomes," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 119-142.
    6. Martynova, M. & Renneboog, L.D.R., 2005. "Takeover Waves : Triggers, Performance and Motives," Discussion Paper 2005-029, Tilburg University, Tilburg Law and Economic Center.
    7. Navío-Marco, Julio & Serrano Calle, Silvia & Solórzano-García, Marta, 2017. "Analysis of glamorous acquisitions in the telecommunications sector: Overvaluation or success?," 28th European Regional ITS Conference, Passau 2017 169487, International Telecommunications Society (ITS).
    8. Matthew D. Cain & David J. Denis, 2013. "Information Production by Investment Banks: Evidence from Fairness Opinions," Journal of Law and Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 56(1), pages 245-280.
    9. Martynova, Marina & Renneboog, Luc, 2008. "A century of corporate takeovers: What have we learned and where do we stand?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(10), pages 2148-2177, October.
    10. Martynova, M., 2006. "The market for corporate control and corporate governance regulation in Europe," Other publications TiSEM 8651e281-4914-41f2-ac14-1, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    11. Matthew D. Cain & David J. Denis, 2010. "Do Fairness Opinion Valuations Contain Useful Information?," Purdue University Economics Working Papers 1244, Purdue University, Department of Economics.
    12. Andrey Golubov & Dimitris Petmezas & Nickolaos G. Travlos, 2013. "Empirical mergers and acquisitions research: a review of methods, evidence and managerial implications," Chapters, in: Adrian R. Bell & Chris Brooks & Marcel Prokopczuk (ed.), Handbook of Research Methods and Applications in Empirical Finance, chapter 12, pages 287-313, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    13. Sara B. Moeller & Frederik P. Schlingemann & Rene M. Stulz, 2003. "Do shareholders of acquiring firms gain from acquisitions?," NBER Working Papers 9523, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    14. Chris Ratcliffe & Bill Dimovski & Monica Keneley, 2017. "The Performance of REIT Acquirers in the Post-Merger Period," ERES eres2017_43, European Real Estate Society (ERES).
    15. Dutta, Shantanu & Jog, Vijay, 2009. "The long-term performance of acquiring firms: A re-examination of an anomaly," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(8), pages 1400-1412, August.
    16. Gunther Tichy, 2001. "What Do We Know about Success and Failure of Mergers?," Journal of Industry, Competition and Trade, Springer, vol. 1(4), pages 347-394, December.
    17. Mager, Ferdinand & Meyer-Fackler, Martin, 2017. "Mergers and acquisitions in Germany: 1981–2010," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 32-42.
    18. Chris Ratcliffe & Bill Dimovski & Monica Keneley & Tom Smith, 2017. "Long-Term post-merger announcement performance. A case study of Australian listed real estate," Accounting and Finance, Accounting and Finance Association of Australia and New Zealand, vol. 57(3), pages 855-877, September.
    19. Abhay Abhyankar & Keng-Yu Ho & Huainan Zhao, 2005. "Long-run post-merger stock performance of UK acquiring firms: a stochastic dominance perspective," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 15(10), pages 679-690.
    20. Clarke, Nicholas, 2022. "It's just a matter of time: Abnormal returns after firms stop repurchasing shares," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 49(C).

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ucp:jlawec:v:44:y:2001:i:1:p:89-129. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Journals Division (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.journals.uchicago.edu/JLE .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.