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A Sequential Game Model Of Sports Championship Series: Theory And Estimation

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  • Christopher Ferrall
  • Anthony A. Smith

Abstract

Using data from professional baseball, basketball, and hockey, we estimate the parameters of a sequential game model of best-of-n championship series controlling for measured and unmeasured differences in team strength and bootstrapping the maximum-likelihood estimates to improve their small sample properties. We find negligible strategic effects in all three sports: teams play as well as possible in each game regardless of the game's importance in the series. We also estimate negligible unobserved heterogeneity after controlling for regular season records and past appearance in the championship series: Teams are estimated to be exactly as strong as they appear on paper. © 2000 by the President and Fellows of Harvard College and the Massachusetts Institute of Technology

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by MIT Press in its journal The Review of Economics and Statistics.

Volume (Year): 81 (1999)
Issue (Month): 4 (November)
Pages: 704-719

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Handle: RePEc:tpr:restat:v:81:y:1999:i:4:p:704-719

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Cited by:
  1. Mago, Shakun D. & Sheremeta, Roman M. & Yates, Andrew, 2013. "Best-of-three contest experiments: Strategic versus psychological momentum," International Journal of Industrial Organization, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 287-296.
  2. Moschini, GianCarlo, 2008. "Incentives and Outcomes in a Strategic Setting: The 3-Points-For-A-Win System in Soccer," Staff General Research Papers 12942, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
  3. Gary Koop, 2004. "Comparing the Performance of Baseball Players: A Multiple Output Approach," ESE Discussion Papers 72, Edinburgh School of Economics, University of Edinburgh.
  4. Konrad, Kai A., 2007. "Strategy in contests: an introduction," Discussion Papers, Research Unit: Market Processes and Governance SP II 2007-01, Social Science Research Center Berlin (WZB).
  5. Vukina, Tomislav & Zheng, Xiaoyong, 2008. "Homogenous and Heterogenous Contestants in Piece Rate Tournaments: Theory and Empirical Analysis," 2008 Annual Meeting, July 27-29, 2008, Orlando, Florida 6540, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
  6. Andrew J. Leach, 2003. "SubGame, set and match. Identifying Incentive Response in a Tournament," Cahiers de recherche 04-02, HEC Montréal, Institut d'économie appliquée.
  7. Mueller-Langer, Frank & Andreoli-Versbach, Patrick, 2013. "Leading-effect vs. Risk-taking in Dynamic Tournaments: Evidence from a Real-life Randomized Experiment," Discussion Papers in Economics 15452, University of Munich, Department of Economics.
  8. Chen, Jiawei & Shum, Matthew, 2010. "Estimating a tournament model of intra-firm wage differentials," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 155(1), pages 39-55, March.
  9. Dmitry Ryvkin, 2009. "Fatigue in dynamic tournaments," Working Papers wp2009_06_03, Department of Economics, Florida State University.
  10. Erez, Eyal & Sela, Aner, 2010. "Round-Robin Tournaments with Effort Constraints," CEPR Discussion Papers 8021, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.

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