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A Sequential Game Model Of Sports Championship Series: Theory And Estimation

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Author Info
Christopher Ferrall
Anthony A. Smith

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Abstract

Using data from professional baseball, basketball, and hockey, we estimate the parameters of a sequential game model of best-of-n championship series controlling for measured and unmeasured differences in team strength and bootstrapping the maximum-likelihood estimates to improve their small sample properties. We find negligible strategic effects in all three sports: teams play as well as possible in each game regardless of the game's importance in the series. We also estimate negligible unobserved heterogeneity after controlling for regular season records and past appearance in the championship series: Teams are estimated to be exactly as strong as they appear on paper. © 2000 by the President and Fellows of Harvard College and the Massachusetts Institute of Technolog

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Publisher Info
Article provided by MIT Press in its journal The Review of Economics and Statistics.

Volume (Year): 81 (1999)
Issue (Month): 4 (November)
Pages: 704-719
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Handle: RePEc:tpr:restat:v:81:y:1999:i:4:p:704-719

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  1. Andrew J. Leach, 2003. "SubGame, set and match. Identifying Incentive Response in a Tournament," Cahiers de recherche 04-02, HEC Montréal, Institut d'économie appliquée. [Downloadable!]
  2. repec:bep:jqsprt:3:2007:1:1 is not listed on IDEAS
  3. Dmitry Ryvkin, 2009. "Fatigue in dynamic tournaments," Working Papers wp2009_06_03, Department of Economics, Florida State University. [Downloadable!]
  4. Moschini, GianCarlo, 2008. "Incentives and Outcomes in a Strategic Setting: The 3-Points-for-a-Win System in Soccer," Staff General Research Papers 12942, Iowa State University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  5. Vukina, Tomislav & Zheng, Xiaoyong, 2008. "Homogenous and Heterogenous Contestants in Piece Rate Tournaments: Theory and Empirical Analysis," 2008 Annual Meeting, July 27-29, 2008, Orlando, Florida 6540, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association). [Downloadable!]
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