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US Regional Income Convergence: A Spatial Econometric Perspective

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Sergio J. Rey, Brett D. Montouri
Abstract

REY S. J. and MONTOURI B. D. (1999) US regional income convergence: a spatial econometric perspective, Reg. Studies 33 , 143-156. This study reconsiders the question of US regional economic income convergence from a spatial econometric perspective. Recently developed methods of exploratory spatial data analysis provide new insights on the geographical dynamics of US regional income growth patterns over the 1929-94 period. Strong patterns of both global and local spatial autocorrelation are found throughout the study period, and the magnitude of global spatial autocorrelation is also found to exhibit strong temporal co-movement with regional income dispersion. A spatial econometric analysis of the familiar Baumol specification reveals strong evidence of misspecification due to ignored spatial error dependence. Because of this dependence, shocks originating in one state can spillover into surrounding states, potentially complicating the transitional dynamics of the convergence process. REY S. J. et MONTOURI B. D. (1999) La convergence du revenu régional aux Etats-Unis: une perspective économétrique, spatiale, Reg. Studies 33 , 143-156. Cette étude remet en cause la convergence du revenu économique régional à partir d'une perspective économétrique, spatiale. De nouvelles méthodes qui permettent une première analyse des données spatiales, fournissent un autre aperçu sur la dynamique géographique de la répartition de la croissance du revenu régional aux Etats-Unis de 1929 à 1994. Pendant toute la période étudiée, de fortes autocorrélations géographiques à la fois globales et locales sont à noter. Il s'avère aussi que l'ampleur de l'autocorrélation spatiale, globale va de pair dans le temps avec la dispersion du revenu régional. Une analyse économétrique, spatiale de la spécification bien connue de Baumol fait preuve de la mauvaise spécification duè a la dépendance vis à vis des erreurs spatiales à laquelle on n'a pas fait attention. A cause de cette dépendance, des chocs qui proviennent d'un état particulier peuvent avoir des retombées sur les états limitrophes, ce qui risque de compliquer la dynamique transitoire du processusdeconvergence. REY S. J. und MONTOURI B. D. (1999) Konvergenz regionaler Einkommen in den Vereinigten Staaten: ein räumlich- ökonometrischer Ausblick, Reg. Studies 33 , 143–156. Diese Studie behandelt noch einmal die Frage der Konvergenz regionaler Einkommen in den Vereinigten Staaten vom Standpunkt der räumlichen Ökonometrie aus. Kürzlich entwickelte Methoden einer Analyse räumlicher Untersuchungsdaten verschaffen neue Einsichten in die geographische Dynamik der Muster regionalen Wachstums von Einkommen in den Vereinigten Staaten im Zeitraum 1929– 94. Für die genannte Untersuchungsperiode werden robuste Muster globaler wie auch örtlicher räumlicher Autokorrelationen festgestellt, wobei der Umfang letzterer sich zudem als in kräftigem zeitlichem Gleichschritt mit der Streuung regionaler Einkommen erweist. Eine räumliche ökonometrische Analyse der bekannten Baumol Spezifizierung liefert handfeste Beweise fehlerhafter Spezifizierungen infolge unbeachtet gebliebener Abhängigkeit von räumlichen Irrtümern. Dank dieser Abhängigkeit kann der Schock eines Staates in Nachbarstaaten Kreise ziehen, und die Übergangsdynamik des Konvergenzprozesses verkomplizieren.

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Article provided by Taylor and Francis Journals in its journal Regional Studies.

Volume (Year): 33 (1999)
Issue (Month): 2 (April)
Pages: 143-156
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Handle: RePEc:taf:regstd:v:33:y:1999:i:2:p:143-156

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Keywords: Regional Income Convergence Spatial Econometrics Exploratory Spatial Data Analysis;

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References listed on IDEAS
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  2. Danny Quah, 1992. "Empirical cross-section dynamics in economic growth," Discussion Paper / Institute for Empirical Macroeconomics 75, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis. [Downloadable!]
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  3. Anselin, Luc & Bera, Anil K. & Florax, Raymond & Yoon, Mann J., 1996. "Simple diagnostic tests for spatial dependence," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 26(1), pages 77-104, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  7. Bernard, Andrew B & Jones, Charles I, 1996. "Productivity across Industries and Countries: Time Series Theory and Evidence," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 78(1), pages 135-46, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  8. Carlino, Gerald A. & Mills, Leonard, 1996. "Testing neoclassical convergence in regional incomes and earnings," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 26(6), pages 565-590, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  9. Bernard, Andrew B. & Durlauf, Steven N., 1996. "Interpreting tests of the convergence hypothesis," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 71(1-2), pages 161-173. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  10. Chatterji, Monojit, 1992. "Convergence Clubs and Endogenous Growth," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press, vol. 8(4), pages 57-69, Winter.
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  14. Bernard, Andrew B & Jones, Charles I, 1996. "Productivity and Convergence across U.S. States and Industries," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 21(1), pages 113-35.
  15. Gerald Carlino & Leonard Mills, 1994. "Convergence and the U.S states: a time series analysis," Working Papers 94-13, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
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  17. Barro, R.J. & Sala-I-Martin, X., 1991. "Convergence Across States and Regions," Papers 629, Yale - Economic Growth Center.
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