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An Econometric Analysis of the Determinants of Fertility for China, 1952-2000

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  • Paresh Kumar Narayan
  • Xiujian Peng

Abstract

This study investigates the determinants of the fertility rate in China over the 1952-2000 period. Consistent with theory, the key explanatory variables in our fertility model are real per capita income, infant mortality rate, female illiteracy and female labour force participation rates. The long-run results and the test for cointegration are based on the Johansen (1988) and Johansen & Juselius (1990) approach. Our long-run results conform to theory in that all variables appear with their expected signs, and the dummy variable used to capture the effects of the family planning policy indicates that in the years of the policy, fertility rates have been falling by around 10-12%. Our results suggest that socio-economic development - consistent with the traditional structural hypothesis - played a key role in China's fertility transition.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Taylor & Francis Journals in its journal Journal of Chinese Economic and Business Studies.

Volume (Year): 4 (2006)
Issue (Month): 2 ()
Pages: 165-183

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Handle: RePEc:taf:jocebs:v:4:y:2006:i:2:p:165-183

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Keywords: JEL Classifications: J13; C22; C52;

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References

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  1. Zhang, J., 1990. "Socioeconomic Determinants Of Fertility In China: A Microeconomic Analysis," Papers 212, Australian National University - Department of Economics.
  2. Graham Elliott & Thomas J. Rothenberg & James H. Stock, 1992. "Efficient Tests for an Autoregressive Unit Root," NBER Technical Working Papers 0130, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Zhang, Junsen, 1990. "Socioeconomic Determinants of Fertility in China: A Microeconometric Analysis," Journal of Population Economics, Springer, vol. 3(2), pages 105-23, August.
  4. Dickey, David A & Fuller, Wayne A, 1981. "Likelihood Ratio Statistics for Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 49(4), pages 1057-72, June.
  5. Peter C.B. Phillips & Pierre Perron, 1986. "Testing for a Unit Root in Time Series Regression," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 795R, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University, revised Sep 1987.
  6. Hansen, Bruce E, 2002. "Tests for Parameter Instability in Regressions with I(1) Processes," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(1), pages 45-59, January.
  7. Zivot, Eric & Andrews, Donald W K, 1992. "Further Evidence on the Great Crash, the Oil-Price Shock, and the Unit-Root Hypothesis," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 10(3), pages 251-70, July.
  8. Johansen, Soren & Juselius, Katarina, 1990. "Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Inference on Cointegration--With Applications to the Demand for Money," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 52(2), pages 169-210, May.
  9. Pollak, R.A. & Watkins, S.C., 1993. "Cultural and Economic Approaches to Fertility : A Proper Marriage or a Mesalliance?," Working Papers 93-11, University of Washington, Department of Economics.
  10. Johansen, Soren, 1988. "Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 231-254.
  11. Sedgley, Nigel & Smith, Jeremy, 1994. "An Analysis of UK Imports Using Multivariate Cointegration," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 56(2), pages 135-50, May.
  12. Muscatelli, Vito Antonio & Hurn, A Stan, 1992. " Cointegration and Dynamic Time Series Models," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 6(1), pages 1-43.
  13. Bera, Anil K. & Jarque, Carlos M., 1982. "Model specification tests : A simultaneous approach," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 20(1), pages 59-82, October.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Wang, Fei, 2012. "Family Planning Policy in China: Measurement and Impact on Fertility," MPRA Paper 42226, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  2. Laura Di Giorgio & Massimo Filippini & Giuliano Masiero, 2012. "Implications of global budget payment system on nursing home costs," CEPRA working paper 1301, USI Università della Svizzera italiana.
  3. Vinod Mishra & Ingrid Nielsen & Russell Smyth, 2006. "The Relationship Between Female Labour Force Participation And Fertility In G7 Countries: Evidence From Panel Cointegration And Granger Causality," Development Research Unit Working Paper Series 13/06, Monash University, Department of Economics.
  4. Di Giorgio, Laura & Filippini, Massimo & Masiero, Giuliano, 2014. "Implications of global budget payment system on nursing home costs," Health Policy, Elsevier, vol. 115(2), pages 237-248.

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