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An Analysis of UK Imports Using Multivariate Cointegration

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  • Sedgley, Nigel
  • Smith, Jeremy

Abstract

This paper uses the multivariate cointegration technique of Johansen to construct a manufacturing imports equation for the UK over the period from 1970 to the end of 1991. Imports are modeled in share form with a unit long-run elasticity on demand. The long-run equations are similar to those used in the Treasury and the National Institute of Economic and Social Research models. Impulses responses from the five equation system are sensible, lending support to the adequacy of the short-run models. Out-of-sample simulations find that there is a tendency for an increase in the share of manufacturing imports despite a continued domestic recession and slow recovery to the end of 1995. Copyright 1994 by Blackwell Publishing Ltd

Suggested Citation

  • Sedgley, Nigel & Smith, Jeremy, 1994. "An Analysis of UK Imports Using Multivariate Cointegration," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 56(2), pages 135-150, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:obuest:v:56:y:1994:i:2:p:135-50
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    Cited by:

    1. Sushanta Mallick, 2004. "A dynamic macroeconometric model for short-run stabilization in India," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 36(3), pages 261-276.
    2. Heejoon Kang, 1999. "The Applied Cointegration Analysis for the Open Economy: A Critical Review," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 10(3), pages 325-346, July.
    3. Mah, Jai S., 2000. "An empirical examination of the disaggregated import demand of Korea--the case of information technology products," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 11(2), pages 237-244.
    4. Paresh Kumar Narayan & Xiujian Peng, 2006. "An Econometric Analysis of the Determinants of Fertility for China, 1952-2000," Journal of Chinese Economic and Business Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 4(2), pages 165-183.

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